Abstract
The European Union adopted the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in the year 2000 to tackle the rapid degradation of freshwater systems. However, biological, hydromorphological, and physico-chemical water quality targets are currently not met, and identifying successful policy implementation and management actions is of key importance. We built a joint species distribution model for riverine fish in Flanders (Belgium) to better understand the response of fish communities to current environmental policy goals. Environmental covariates included physico-chemical variables and hydromorphological quality indices, while waterway distances accounted for spatial effects. We detected strong effects of physico-chemistry on fish species’ distributions. Evaluation of fish community responses to simulated policy scenarios revealed that targeting a ‘good’ status, following the WFD, increases average species richness with a fraction of species (0.13–0.69 change in accumulated occurrence probabilities). Targeting a ‘very good’ status, however, predicted an increase of 0.17–1.38 in average species richness. These simulations indicated that riverbed quality, nitrogen, and conductivity levels should be the focal point of policy. However, the weak response of species to a ‘good’ quality together with the complexity of nutrient-associated problems, suggest a challenging future for river restoration in Flanders.
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Acknowledgements
We thank Jef Guelinckx, Tom De Bie, Maarten Van Aert, and Ward De Cooman (VMM) for fruitful discussions. We thank the Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO) and the Flemish Environmental Agency (VMM) for providing the fish monitoring and environmental data.
Funding
ID benefited from a scholarship of the Research Foundation—Flanders (FWO-SBO, 1S48117N). OO was supported by the Academy of Finland (Grant 309581 to OO) and by the Strategic Research Council of the Academy of Finland (Grant 312650 to the BlueAdapt consortium). JAMR was supported by the Young Research Talents grant of Nord University (2018–2019).
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ID, JR, EB, GVT and FV designed the study. ID, EB, ØO, FC, JR and OO analysed the data. ID led the writing of the paper. All authors contributed to the writing and approved the final version for publication. The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.
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Deflem, I.S., Bennetsen, E., Opedal, Ø.H. et al. Predicting fish community responses to environmental policy targets. Biodivers Conserv 30, 1457–1478 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-021-02154-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-021-02154-2