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Conserving populations at the edge of their geographic range: the endangered Caspian red deer (Cervus elaphus maral) across protected areas of Iran

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Abstract

Large ungulate populations around the world are declining, experience range loss or even go extinct. Ecological theory predicts that a species’ vulnerability is greater at the edges of its geographic range compared to its core. However, edge populations may still be successfully managed inside reserves when the drivers of declines are addressed with priority. Our aim was to evaluate the status of Caspian red deer in Iran and address the importance of law enforcement and landscape connectivity between reserves. Using systematic occurrence records and ranger-based censuses, we applied multiple methods to model the Caspian red deer’s distribution, quantify population trajectory metrics and predict landscape connectivity. Additionally, we ran generalized linear models in a Bayesian approach to assess the importance of ranger stations and connectivity on population abundance. We estimated the population at 747 (CI 95% 604–890) individuals being confined to 21 areas, reflecting a decline by 59% compared to an estimate in 1977 with declining trajectories in 98% of reserves. The number of ranger stations was the only factor correlating with its population abundance. Moreover, extirpation and range loss mostly occurred in the periphery of its Iranian distribution, and we detected five stepping stone areas in the center of the range. Our study suggests that under conditions of heavy poaching and competition with livestock, conservation urgently needs to focus on increased law enforcement and improvement of habitat quality to stop declines and prevent extinction of this large ungulate in Iran.

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Acknowledgements

This project would not have been possible without the support of local rangers and staff of three provincial offices of Department of Environment. We are thankful A. Ghoddousi for reviewing the earlier version of the manuscript. This project is implemented under the permits: No. 94/25664 (PhD project of Mah.S; 2014–2017) and No. 98/170/39717 (2019–2021; DAAD-PRIME project of Mah.S).

Funding

The work leading to this publication was supported by the PRIME programme of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) with funds from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) provided to Mah.S (2019–2021).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, 4111, Karaj, Iran

    Shirko Shokri

  2. Azadeghan Street, PO. Box 6641756751, Divandareh, Kordestan Province, Iran

    Shirko Shokri

  3. Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources, Malayer University, Malayer, Iran

    Abbas Jafari

  4. Mazandaran Provincial Office of the Department of Environment, Roudaki Street, Sari, Iran

    Korous Rabei

  5. Gilan Provincial Office of the Department of Environment, 1433, Resalat Street, Rasht, Iran

    Ehsan Hadipour & Hossein Alinejad

  6. Northwest German Forest Research Institute, Grätzelstraße 2, 37079, Göttingen, Germany

    Thorsten Zeppenfeld

  7. Department of the Environment, Faculty of Fishery and Environment, Gorgan University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

    Mobin Soufi

  8. Sahel Square, Parsia Complex, Sarv Building, PO Box 14938-89881, Tehran, Iran

    Ali Qashqaei

  9. Research Center for the Caspian Region, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran

    Mohsen Ahmadpour

  10. Faculty of Biological Sciences and Technology, Shahid Beheshti University, Daneshjoo St, PO Box 1983969411, Tehran, G.C, Iran

    Bahram Zehzad & Bahram H. Kiabi

  11. CSIRO Land and Water, PMB 44, Winnellie, Darwin, NT, 0822, Australia

    Chris R. Pavey

  12. Wildlife Sciences, University of Goettingen, Buesgenweg 3, 37077, Goettingen, Germany

    Niko Balkenhol

  13. Workgroup On Endangered Species, J.F. Blumenbach Institute of Zoology and Anthropology, University of Goettingen, Bürgerstr. 50, 37073, Göttingen, Germany

    Matthias Waltert & Mahmood Soofi

  14. School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK

    Mahmood Soofi

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  1. Shirko Shokri
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  2. Abbas Jafari
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  14. Matthias Waltert
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  15. Mahmood Soofi
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Contributions

SHSH, Mah.S, and ChRP conceived the ideas and designed methodology; Mah.S, Mob.S, MA, AJ, ATQ, KR, EH, HA, SHSH and ThZ, and participated actively in collecting the data; SHSH and Mah.S analyzed the data and drafted the manuscript. MW, NB, ChRP, BZ, ThZ and BK contributed critically to the drafts and gave final approval for publication. The manuscript led by Mah.S.

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Correspondence to Shirko Shokri.

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Communicated by Dirk Sven Schmeller.

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Shokri, S., Jafari, A., Rabei, K. et al. Conserving populations at the edge of their geographic range: the endangered Caspian red deer (Cervus elaphus maral) across protected areas of Iran. Biodivers Conserv 30, 85–105 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-020-02077-4

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