Biodiversity and Conservation

, Volume 24, Issue 10, pp 2497–2519 | Cite as

Vertebrate biodiversity losses point to a sixth mass extinction

Original Paper

Abstract

The human race faces many global to local challenges in the near future. Among these are massive biodiversity losses. The 2012 IUCN/SSC Red List reported evaluations of ~56 % of all vertebrates. This included 97 % of amphibians, mammals, birds, cartilaginous fishes, and hagfishes. It also contained evaluations of ~50 % of lampreys, ~38 % of reptiles, and ~29 % of bony fishes. A cursory examination of extinction magnitudes does not immediately reveal the severity of current biodiversity losses because the extinctions we see today have happened in such a short time compared to earlier events in the fossil record. So, we still must ask how current losses of species compare to losses in mass extinctions from the geological past. The most recent and best understood mass extinction is the Cretaceous terminal extinction which ends at the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) border, 65 MYA. This event had massive losses of biodiversity (~17 % of families, >50 % of genera, and >70 % of species) and exterminated the dinosaurs. Extinction estimates for non-dinosaurian vertebrates at the K–Pg boundary range from 36 to 43 %. However, there remains much uncertainty regarding the completeness, preservation rates, and extinction magnitudes of the different classes of vertebrates. Fuzzy arithmetic was used to compare recent vertebrate extinction reported in the 2012 IUCN/SSC Red List with biodiversity losses at the end of K–Pg. Comparisons followed 16 different approaches to data compilation and 288 separate calculations. I tabulated the number of extant and extinct species (extinct + extinct in the wild), extant island endemics, data deficient species, and so-called impaired species [species with IUCN/SSC Red List designations from vulnerable (VU) to critically endangered (CR)]. Species that went extinct since 1500 and since 1980 were tabulated. Vertebrate extinction moved forward 24–85 times faster since 1500 than during the Cretaceous mass extinction. The magnitude of extinction has exploded since 1980, with losses about 71–297 times larger than during the K–Pg event. If species identified by the IUCN/SSC as critically endangered through vulnerable, and those that are data deficient are assumed extinct by geological standards, then vertebrate extinction approaches 8900–18,500 times the magnitude during that mass extinction. These extreme values and the great speed with which vertebrate biodiversity is being decimated are comparable to the devastation of previous extinction events. If recent levels of extinction were to continue, the magnitude is sufficient to drive these groups extinct in less than a century.

Keywords

Biodiversity Mass extinction Sixth mass extinction Vertebrates Fuzzy arithmetic Fuzzy logic 

Supplementary material

10531_2015_940_MOESM1_ESM.doc (16 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOC 16352 kb)

References

  1. Abrahamsson M (2002) Uncertainty in quantitative risk analysis—characterization and methods of treatment. Report 1024. Department of Fire Safety Engineering, Lund University, Sweden. p 103Google Scholar
  2. Alroy J (2014) Accurate and precise estimates of origination and extinction. Paleobiology 40:374–397CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Archibald JD, Bryant LJ (1990) Cretaceous/Tertiary extinctions of nonmarine vertebrates: Evidence from northeastern Montana. In: Sharpton VL, Ward PD (eds) Global Catastrophes in Earth history: an interdisciplinary conference on impacts, volcanism, and mass mortality, Global Geol Soc Am Special Paper, vol 247, pp 549–562Google Scholar
  4. Azuma Y, Currie PJ (2000) A new carnosaur (Dinosauria: Theropoda) from the Lower Cretaceous of Japan. Can J Earth Sci 37:1735–1753CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Barnosky AD, Matzke N, Tomiya S, Wogan GOU, Swartz B et al (2011a) Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived? Nature 471:51–57PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Barnosky AD, Carrasco MA, Graham RW (2011b) Collateral mammal diversity loss associated with late quarternary megafaunal extinctions and implications for the future. Geological Society, London, Special Publications 358:179–189CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Baum M, Collen B, Baillie JEM, Bowles P, Chanson J, Cox N, Hammerson G et al (2013) The conservation status of the world’s reptiles. Biol Conserv 157:372–385CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Belohlavek R, Klir GJ (2011) Concepts of Fuzzy Logic. The MIT Press, Cambridge, p 288 Google Scholar
  9. Belovsky GE, Mellison C, Larson C, Van Zandt PA (1999) Experimental studies of extinction dynamics. Science 286:1175–1177PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Benn H (2010) Viewpoint: Biodiversity nears ‘point of no return,’ BBC News. 17 January. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8461727.stm
  11. Benton MJ (1995) Diversity and extinction in the history of life. Science 268:52–58PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Benton MJ (1998) The quality of the fossil record of vertebrates. In: Donovan SK, Paul CRC (eds) The Adequacy of the fossil record. Wiley, New York, pp 269–303Google Scholar
  13. Benton MJ (2003) When life nearly died: the greatest mass extinction of all time. Thames & Hudson, London, p 336Google Scholar
  14. Benton MJ (2005) Fossil record. Encyclopedia of life sciences. Macmillan, London, p 11Google Scholar
  15. Benton MJ, Willis MA, Hitchin R (2000) Quality of the fossil record through time. Nature 403:534–537PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Benton MJ, Dunhill AM, Lloyd GT, Marx FG (2011) Assessing the quality of the fossil record: insights from the vertebrates. Geol Soc Lond Spec Publ 358:63–94CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Botha J, Smith RMH (2006) Rapid vertebrate recuperation in the Karoo Basin of South Africa following the end-Permian extinction. J Afr Earth Sci 45:502–514CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Bottrill MC, Hockings M, Possingham HP (2011) In pursuit of knowledge: addressing barriers to effective conservation evaluation. Ecol Soc 16:14–31Google Scholar
  19. Bowring SA, Erwin DH, Isozaki Y (1999) The tempo of mass extinction and recovery: the end-Permian example. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 96:8827–8828PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Boyajian GE (1991) Taxon age and selectivity of extinction. Paleobiol 17:49–57Google Scholar
  21. Brenchly PJ (2007) Chap 2.4.2 Late Ordovician extinction. In: Briggs DEG, Crowther PR (eds) Paleoecolgy II. Blackwell Science Ltd., MaldenGoogle Scholar
  22. Briggs JC (1991) A Cretaceous Tertiary mass extinction? Bioscience 41:619–624PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Brusatte SL, Butler RJ, Barrett PM, Carrano MT, Evans DC, Lloyd GT, Mannion PD, Norell MA, Peppe DJ, Upchurch P, Williamson TE (2014) The extinction of the dionosaurs. Biol Rev doi:10.1111/br.12128
  24. Bryant LJ (1989) Non-dinosaurian lower vertebrates across the Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary in northeastern Montana. Univ California Publ Geol Sci 134:1–107Google Scholar
  25. Bury RB (2006) Natural history, field ecology, conservation biology and wildlife management: time to connect the dots. Herpetol Conserv Biol 1:56–61Google Scholar
  26. Butchart SHM, Walpole M, Collen B, van Strein A, Scharlemann JPW et al (2010) Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines. Science 328:1164–1168PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Capetta H (1987) Mesozoic and Cenozoic Elasmobranchii, Chondrichthyes II. In: Schultze H-P (ed) Handbook of paleoichthyology, vol 3B. Gustav Fischer Verlag, Stuttgart, pp 1–193Google Scholar
  28. Chiappe LM (1995) The first 85 million years of avian evolution. Nature 378:349–355CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Clarke JA, Tambussi CP, Noriega JI, Erickson GM, Ketcham RA (2005) Definitive fossil evidence for the extant avian radiation in the Cretaceous. Nature 433:305–308PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Clements CF (2013) Public interest in the extinction of a species may lead to an increase in donations to a large conservation charity. Biodivers Conserv 22:2695–2699CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Clemmens WA (1986) Evolution of the vertebrate fauna during the Cretaceous–Tertiary transition. In: Elliot DK (ed) Dynamics of extinction. Wiley-Interscience, New York, pp 63–85Google Scholar
  32. Cooper WS (1984) Expected time to extinction and the concept of fundamental fitness. J Theor Biol 107:603–629CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Cooper A, Penny D (1997) Mass survival of birds across the Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary: molecular evidence. Science 275:1109–1113PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Costello MJ, May RM, Stork NE (2013) Can we name Earth’s species before they go extinct. Science 339:413–416PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Darba RM, Eljarrat E, Barceló D (2008) How to measure uncertainties in environmental risk assessment. Trends Anal Chem 27:377–385CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Darbra RM, Casal J (2009) Environmental risk assessment of accidental releases in chemical plants through fuzzy logic. Int J Chem Eng 17:287–292Google Scholar
  37. Diamond JM (1989) The present, past and future of human-caused extinctions. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B 325:469–477CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Dulvy NK, Fowler SL, Musick JA, Cavanagh RD, Kyne PM et al. (2014) Extinction risk and conservation of the world’s sharks and rays. eLife 3: e00590. doi: 10.7554/eLife.00590
  39. Ehrlich PR, Ehrlich AH (1981) Exintions. Ballantine Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  40. Endler JA (1986) Natural selection in the wild. Princeton University Press, PrincetonGoogle Scholar
  41. Erwin DH (1990) The end-permian mass extinction. Ann Rev Ecol Syst 21:69–91CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Erwin DH, Bowring SA, Yugan J (2002) End-Permian mass extinctions: a review. Geol Soc Am Spec Paper 356:363–384Google Scholar
  43. Fara E, Benton MJ (2000) The fossil record of Cretaceous tetrapods. Palaios 15:161–165CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Fassett JE, Heaman LM, Simonetti A (2012) Direct U-Pb dating of Cretaceous and Paleocene dinosaur bones, San Juan Basin, New Mexico: reply. Geology 40:e263–e264CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Ferson S (2008) What Monte Carlo methods cannot do. Human Ecol Risk Assess 2:990–1007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Ferson S, Root W, Kuhn R (1995) RAMAS risk calc: risk assessment with uncertain numbers. Applied Biomathematics, Setauket. http://www.ramas.com/riskcalc.htm#fuzzy
  47. Fey SB, Siepielski AM, Nusslé S, Cervates-Yoshida K, Hwan JL, Huber ER et al (2015) Recent shifts in the occurrence, cause, and magnitude of animal mass mortality events. Natl Acad Sci, Proc. doi:10.1073/pnas.1414894112 Google Scholar
  48. Fitch WM, Ayala FJ (eds) (1995) Tempo and mode in evolution: genetics and paleontology 50 years after Simpson. National Academy Press, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  49. Flynn JJ, Parrish JM, Rakotosamimana B (1999) A triassic fauna from Madagascar, including early dinosaurs. Science 286:763–765PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Foote M (1997) Estimating taxonomic durations and preservation probability. Paleobiol 23:278–300Google Scholar
  51. Fountaine TMR, Benton MJ, Dyke GJ, Nudds RL (2005) The quality of the fossil record of Mesozoic birds. Proc R Soc Ser B 272:289–294CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Fowle JR III, Dearfield KL (2000) Risk characterization handbook. Science Policy Council, Office of Research and Development. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, DC, USA, EPA 100-B-00-002Google Scholar
  53. Friedman M, Sallan LC (2012) Five hundred million years of extinction and recovery: a phanerozoic sury of large-scale diversity patterns in fishes. Paleontology 55:707–742CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Gaurilets S (2003) Evolution and speciation in hyperspace. In: Crutchfield JP, Schuster P (eds) Evolutionary dynamics: exploring the interplay of selection, accident, nuetrality, and function. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 135–162Google Scholar
  55. Gilinsky NL (1994) Volatility and Phanerozoic decline of background extinction intensity. Paleobiol 20:445–458Google Scholar
  56. Global Biodiversity Outlook 2 (2006) Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal, p 81Google Scholar
  57. Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 (2010) Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal, p 94Google Scholar
  58. Haggart JW (2002) Resolving the Triassic/Jurassic extinction event: a case study in fossil resource management, Queen Charlotte Islands, BC. Res Links 10:1–6Google Scholar
  59. Hallam A (1998) Mass extinctions in phanerozoic. Geol Soc Lond 140:259–274CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Hallam A, Wignall PB (1997) Mass extinctions and their aftermath. Oxford Univ Press, New York, p 328 Google Scholar
  61. Henle K, Sarre S, Wiegand K (2004) The role of density regulation in extinction processes and population viability analysis. Biodivers Cons 13:9–52CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Hewzulla D, Boulter MC, Benton MJ, Halley JM (1999) Evolutionary patterns from mass origination and mass extinctions. Philos Trans R Soc Lond Ser B 354:463–469CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Hoffman M, Hilton-Taylor C, Angulo A, Bohm M, Brooks TM et al (2010) The impact of conservation on the status of the World’s vertebrates. Science 330:1503–1509CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Hou L, Martin M, Zhou Z, Feduccia A (1996) Early adaptive radiation of birds: evidence from fossils from Northeastern China. Science 274:1164–1167PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Huey RB, Ward PD (2005) Hypoxia, global warming, and terrestrial late Permian extinctions. Science 308:398–401PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. IUCN/SSC Red List (2012) International Union Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission. http://www.iucnredlist.org
  67. IUCN/SSC Red List (2014) International Union Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission. http://www.iucnredlist.org
  68. Jablonski D (1986) Mass and background extinctions: the alternation of macroevolutionary regimes. Science 231:129–133PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Jablonski D (1991) Extinctions: a paleontological perspective. Science 253:754–756PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Jablonski D (1994) Extinctions in the fossil record. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B 344:11–17Google Scholar
  71. Jablonski D (2002) Survival without recovery after mass extinctions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99:8139–8144PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Jenkins RJF (1989) The supposed terminal Precambrian extinction event in relation to the Cnideria. Memoirs of the Association of Australasian Paleonotologist 8:307–317Google Scholar
  73. Keith DA, Mahony M, Hines H, Elith J, Regan TJ, Baumgartner JB et al (2014) Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN Red List Criteria. Conserv Biol 28:810–819PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Kitchell JA, Hoffman A (1991) Rates of species-level origination and extinction: functions of age, diversity, and history. Paleontologica 36:39–67Google Scholar
  75. Kriwet J, Benton MJ (2004) Neoselachian (Chondrichthyes, Elasmobranchii) diversity across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. Paleogeo Palaeoclim Palaeoecol 214:181–194CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. Krug AZ, Jablonski D, Valentine JW (2009) Extinction in the modern biota. Science 323:767–771PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Leakey R, Lewin R (1995) The sixth extinction. Weidenfeld and Nicolson, LondonGoogle Scholar
  78. Li B (2009) Fuzzy statistical and modeling approach to ecological assessment, chapter 15. In: Jensen ME, Bourgeron PS (eds) A Guide for Integrated Ecological Assessment. Springer-Verlag New York Inc., New York, pp 211–220Google Scholar
  79. Li L, Keller G (1998) Maastrichian climate, productivity and faunal turnovers in planktic foraminifera in South Atlantic DSDP sites 525A and 21. Marine Micropaleontol 33:55–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. Lindenmayer DB, Gibbons P, Bourke M, Burgman M, Dickman CR, Ferrier S et al (2011) Improving biodiversity monitoring. Aust Ecol. doi:10.1111/j.1442-9993.2011.02314.x Google Scholar
  81. Longrich NR, Tokaryk T, Field DJ (2011) Mass extinction of birds at the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) boundary. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 108:15253–15257PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  82. Longrich NR, Bhullar BS, Gauthier JA (2012) Mass extinction of lizards and snakes at the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 109:21396–21401PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  83. MacLeod N, Rawson PF, Forey PL, Banner FT, Boudagher-Fadel MK et al (1997) The Cretaceous–Tertiary biotic transition. J. Geol. Soc. Lond. 154:265–292CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. Matsukawa M, Hamuro T, Mizukami T, Fujii S (1997) First trackway evidence of gregarious dinosaurs from the Lower Cretaceous Group of eastern Toyama prefecture, central Japan. Cretac Res 18:603–619CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. McCallum ML (2007) Amphibian decline or extinction? Current declines dwarf background rates. J Herpetol 41:483–491CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. McCallum ML (2010) Future climate change spells catastrophe for Blanchard’s cricket frog, Acris blanchardi (Amphibia: Anura: Hylidae). Acta Herpetol 5:119–130Google Scholar
  87. McCallum ML, Bury GW (2013) Google search patterns suggest declining interest in the environment. Biodivers Cons 22:1355–1367CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. McCallum ML, Bury GW (2014) Public interest in the environment is falling: a response to Ficetola (2013). Biodivers Cons 23:1057–1062CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  89. McCallum ML, McCallum JL (2006) Publication trends of natural history and field studies in herpetology. Herpetol Conserv Biol 1:63–68Google Scholar
  90. McCallum ML, McCallum JL, Trauth SE (2009) Predicted climate change may spark box turtle declines. Amphibia-Reptilia 30:259–264CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  91. McKinney ML (1995) Extinction selectivity among lower taxa: gradational patterns and refraction error in extinction estimates. Paleobiology 21:300–313Google Scholar
  92. Milner AC (1998) Timing and causes of vertebrate extinction across the Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary. Geol Soc Lond Special Publ 140:247–257CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  93. Newell ND (1959) The nature of the fossil record. Proc. Amer. Phil. Soc. 103:264–285Google Scholar
  94. Novacek MJ (2001) The Biodiversity Crisis: Losing What Counts. The New Press, New York 223 p Google Scholar
  95. Nowak RS, Nowak CL, Tausch RJ (2000) Probability that a fossil absent from a sample is also absent from the paleolandscape. Quart Res 54:114–154CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  96. Olsen PE, Sues H-D (1986) Correlation of the continental Late Triassic–Jurassic tetrapod transition. In: Padian K (ed) The Beginning of the Age of Dinosaurs: Faunal Change Across the Triassic–Jurassic Boundary. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 322–358Google Scholar
  97. Patterson C (1993) Osteichthyes: Teleostei. In: Benton MJ (ed) The Fossil record 2. Springer, New York, pp 621–656Google Scholar
  98. Payne JL, Clapham ME (2012) End-Permian Mass Extinction in the oceans: an ancient analog for the Twenty-first Century? Ann Rev Earth Planetary Sci 40:89–111CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  99. Pfenniger M, Schwenk K (2007) Cryptic species are homogenously distributed among taxa and biogeographic regions. BMC Evol Biol 7:121CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  100. Pimm SL (2002) The dodo went extinct (and other ecological myths). Ann Mo Bot Garden 89:190–198CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  101. Pimm SL, Russell GJ, Gittleman JL, Brooks TM (1995) The future of biodiversity. Science 269:347–350PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  102. Pimm S, Raven P, Peterson A, Sekercioğlu CH, Erlich PR (2006) Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions. Proc Nat Acad Sci 103:10941–10946PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  103. Pimm SL, Jenkins CN, Abell R, Brooks TM, Gittleman JL, Joppa LN, Raven PH, Roberts CM, Sexton JO (2014) The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction and protection. Science 344:987–997CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  104. Raup DM (1991) A kill curve for Phanaerozoic marine species. Paleobiology 17:37–48PubMedGoogle Scholar
  105. Raup DM (1992) Extinction: Bad Genes or Bad Luck? W.W. Norton & Company, New York, p 224Google Scholar
  106. Raup DM (1994) The role of extinction in evolution. Proc Nat Acad Sci 91:6758–6763PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  107. Raup DM, Skepkoski JJ (1982) Mass extinctions in the marine fossil record. Science 215:1501–1503PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  108. Regan HM, Lupia R, Drinnan AN, Burgman MA (2001) The currency and tempo of extinction. Am Nat 157:1–10PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  109. Regan HM, Colyvan M, Burgman MA (2002) A taxonomy of treatment of uncertainty for ecology and conservation biology. Ecol Appl 12:618–628CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  110. Retlack GJ, Smith RMH, Ward PD (2003) Vertebrate extinction across Permian–Triassic boundary in Karoo Basin, South Africa. GSA Bull 115:1133–1152CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  111. Richards DR (2013) The content of historical books as an indicator of past interest in environmental issues. Biodivers Conserv 22:2795–2803CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  112. Robertson DS, McKenna MC, Hope QB, Lillegraven JA (2004) Survival in the first hours of the Cenozoic. GSA Bull 116:760–768CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  113. Roelants K, Gower DJ, Wilkinson M, Loader SP, Biju SD, Guillaume K, Moriau L, Bossuyt F (2007) Global patterns of diversification in the history of modern amphibians. Proc Nat Acad Sci 104:887–892PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  114. Sahney S, Benton MJ (2008) Recovery from the most profound mass extinction of all time. Proc R Soc Ser B 275:759–765CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  115. Sallan LC, Coates MI (2010) End—devonian extinction and a bottleneck in the early evolution of modern jawed vertebrates. Proceed Natl Acad Sci 107:10131–10135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  116. Sepkoski JJ Jr (1981) A factor analytic description of the Phanerozoic fossil record. Paleobiology 1981:36–53Google Scholar
  117. Sepkoski JJ Jr (1997) Biodiversity: past, present and future. J Paleontol 71:533–539PubMedGoogle Scholar
  118. Signor PW (1990) The geologic history of diversity. Ann Rev Ecol Syst 21:509–539CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  119. Signor PW, Lipps JH (1982) Sampling bias, gradual extinction patterns and catastrophes in the fossil record. Geol Soc Am Spec Pap 190:291–296Google Scholar
  120. Skov F, Svenning J (2004) Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe. Ecography 27:366–380CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  121. Smith RMH, Ward PD (2001) Pattern of vertebrate extinction across an event at the Permian–Triassic boundary in Karoo Basin of South Africa. Geology 29:1147–1150CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  122. Solé RV (2002) Modelling macroevolutionary patterns: an ecological perspective. In: Lassig M, Valleriani A (eds) LNP 585. Springer, Berlin, pp 312–337Google Scholar
  123. Thackeray JF (1990) Rates of extinction in marine invertebrates further comparison between background and mass extinctions. Paleobiology 16:22–24Google Scholar
  124. Tokede O, Wamuziri S (2012) Perceptions of fuzzy set theory in construction risk analysis. In: Smith SD (ed.) Proceedings of 28th Annual ARCOM Conference, 3–5 Sept 2012, Edingburgh, UK. Association of Researchers in Construction Management, pp 1197–1207. http://www.arcom.ac.uk/-docs/proceedings/ar2012-1197-1207_Tokede_Wamuziri.pdf
  125. U.S. EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) (1992) Framework for ecological risk assessment. Risk Assessment Forum, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, DC, USA. EPA/630/R-92/001Google Scholar
  126. U.S. EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) (1998) Guidelines for ecological risk assessment. Fed Reg 63:26846–26924Google Scholar
  127. Valentine JW, Jablonski D (1993) Fossil communities: compositional variation at many time scales. Species Diversity in Ecological Communities. University of Chicago Press, ChicagoGoogle Scholar
  128. Wake DB, Vredenburg VT (2008) Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:11466–11473PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  129. Wignall PB, Benton MJ (1999) Lazarus taxa and fossil abundance at times of biotic crisis. J. Geol. Soc. 156:453–456CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  130. Wilson EO (1988) Biodiversity. National Academy Press, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  131. Yin H, Feng Q, Lai Z, Baud A, Tong J (2007) The protracted Permo-Triassic crisis and multi-episode extinction around the Permian–Triassic boundary. Global Planet Change 55:1–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  132. Zadeh LA (1990) The birth and evolution of fuzzy logic. Internat J Gen Syst 17:95–105CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Environmental StudiesUniversity of Illinois SpringfieldSpringfieldUSA
  2. 2.HoldenUSA

Personalised recommendations