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A framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change: a case study of the Australian elapid snakes

Biodiversity and Conservation volume 23, pages 3019–3034 (2014)Cite this article

Abstract

Frameworks that provide a system for assessing species according to their vulnerability to climate change can offer considerable guidance to conservation managers who need to allocate limited resources among a large number of taxa. To date, climate change vulnerability assessments have largely been based on projected changes in range size derived from the output of species distribution models (SDMs). A criticism of risk assessments based solely on these models is that information on species ecological and life history traits is lacking. Accordingly, we developed a points-based framework for assessing species vulnerability to climate change that considered species traits together with the projections of SDMs. Applying this method to the Australian elapid snakes (family Elapidae), we determined which species may be particularly susceptible in the future and assessed broad-scale biogeographic patterns in species vulnerability. By offering a more comprehensive and rigorous method for assessing vulnerability than those based solely on SDMs, this framework provides greater justification for resource allocation, and can help guide decisions regarding the most appropriate adaptation strategies.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the Australian Museum, the Western Australian Museum, the Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery, the NSW Parks and Wildlife Service and the Australian National Wildlife Collection for access to their reptile locality records. Thanks to P. Wilson, L. Beaumont, D. Duursma and M. Steel for help with the species distribution modelling. We are indebted to R. Shine, J. Webb, M. Bull, E. Wapstra, M. Thomson, H. Heatwole and N. Mitchell for their participation in the Delphi process, to H. Cogger for his encouragement and advice and to M. Burgman and two anonymous referees for their comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript. This research was funded by a Macquarie University Research Excellence Scholarship to AC.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW, 2109, Australia

    Abigail L. Cabrelli, Adam J. Stow & Lesley Hughes

Authors
  1. Abigail L. Cabrelli
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  2. Adam J. Stow
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  3. Lesley Hughes
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Correspondence to Abigail L. Cabrelli.

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Communicated by David Westcott.

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Cabrelli, A.L., Stow, A.J. & Hughes, L. A framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change: a case study of the Australian elapid snakes. Biodivers Conserv 23, 3019–3034 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-014-0760-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-014-0760-0

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Conservation priorities
  • Elapidae
  • Species distribution modelling
  • Species traits
  • Vulnerability assessment

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