Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Carry-over effects from passage regions are more important than breeding climate in determining the breeding phenology and performance of three avian migrants of conservation concern

Biodiversity and Conservation volume 23, pages 2427–2444 (2014)Cite this article

Abstract

Long distance migrants are declining more rapidly than residents, with birds that breed in Europe and winter in tropical Africa providing particularly clear examples. Causal mechanisms may include climate change, but are poorly understood partly because carry-over effects from non-breeding ranges can influence breeding performance. Using long-term data spanning four decades we assess how climatic variation in migrants’ winter, passage and breeding ranges determine timing of breeding and reproductive success. We do so for three Afro-European avian migrants of regional conservation concern (redstart, spotted flycatcher and wood warbler). We find that carry-over effects from passage regions consistently had stronger impacts on breeding phenology than breeding climate. Warm Mediterranean passage conditions promoted earlier breeding in all species, and redstarts also bred earlier following higher Sahel rainfall. Warmer springs on the breeding grounds promoted slightly earlier breeding in redstart and wood warbler, but not spotted flycatcher. Carry-over effects also typically influenced breeding performance to a greater extent than weather on the breeding grounds. Greater rainfall in the Sahel increased redstart brood size, warmer Mediterranean passage conditions increased spotted flycatcher brood size and, to a lesser extent, the number of wood warbler fledglings. In contrast to the concern regarding climate change impacts on migrants’ breeding grounds we found no evidence that warmer temperatures on the breeding grounds were associated with reduced reproductive performance. We thus find that climatic variation on the non-breeding grounds, especially passage regions, typically influenced migrants’ breeding phenology and demography more strongly than equivalent variation on the breeding sites. Such carry-over effects should be considered when assessing the causes of migrants’ marked population declines.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

References

  • Ahola M, Laakonsen T, Sippola K, Eeva T, Rainio K, Lehikoinen E (2004) Variation in climate warming along the migration route uncouples arrival and breeding dates. Glob Change Biol 10:1610–1617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Altwegg R, Broms K, Erni B, Barnard P, Midgley GF, Underhill LG (2012) Novel methods reveal shifts in migration phenology of barn swallows in South Africa. Proc R Soc Lond B 279:1485–1490

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baillie SR, Peach WJ (1992) Population limitation in Palaearctic-African migrant passerines. Ibis 134:120–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baillie SR, Marchant JH, Leech DI, Renwick AR, Eglington SM, Joys AC, Noble DG, Barimore C, Conway GJ, Downie IS, Risely K, Robinson RA (2012) BirdTrends 2011 BTO research report no 609. BTO, Thetford

    Google Scholar 

  • Bearhop S, Hilton GM, Votier SC, Waldron S (2004) Stable isotope ratios indicate that body condition in migrating passerines is influenced by winter habitat. Proc R Soc Lond B 271:S215–S218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • BĂŞty J, Gauthier G, Jean-François G (2003) Body condition, migration, and timing of reproduction in snow geese: a test of the condition-dependent model of optimal clutch size. Am Nat 162:110–121

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Both C, Visser ME (2001) Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant bird. Nature 411:296–298

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Both C, Sanz JJ, Artemyev AV, Blaauw B, Cowie RJ, Dekhuizen AJ, Enemar A, Järvinen A, Nyholm NEI, Potti J, Ravussin P-A, Silverin B, Slater FM, Sokolov LV, Visser ME, Winkel W, Wright J, Zang H (2006) Pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca travelling from Africa to breed in Europe: differential effects of winter and migration conditions on breeding date. Ardea 94:511–525

    Google Scholar 

  • Bridge ES, Kelly JF, Bjornen PE, Curry CM, Crawford PHC, Paritte JM (2010) Effects of nutritional condition on spring migration: do migrants use resource availability to keep pace with a changing world? J Exp Biol 213:2424–2429

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Burfield I, van Bommel F (2004) Birds in Europe: population estimates, trends and conservation status. BirdLife International, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Buse A, Dury SJ, Woodburn RJW, Perrins CM, Good JEG (1999) Effects of elevated temperature on multi-species interactions: the case of pedunculate oak, winter moth and tits. Funct Ecol 13:S74–S82

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cramp S, Perrins CM (1988–1993) The birds of the Western Palearctic, vol 5–7. Oxford University Press, Oxford

  • Crick HQP (2004) The impact of climate change on birds. Ibis 146:S48–S56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crick HQP, Gibbons DW, Magrath RD (1993) Seasonal changes in clutch size in British Birds. J Anim Ecol 62:263–273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crick HQP, Baillie SR, Leech DI (2003) The UK nest record scheme: its value for science and conservation. Bird Study 50:254–270

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Curry-Lindahl K (1981) Bird migration in Africa. Academic Press Inc., London

    Google Scholar 

  • Dormann CF, Elith J, Bacher S, Buchmann C, Carl G, CarrĂ© G, MarquĂ©z JRG, Gruber B, Lafourcade B, LeitĂŁo PJ, MĂĽnkemĂĽller T, Mcclean C, Osborne PE, Reineking B, Schröder B, Skidmore AK, Zurell D, Lautenbach S (2013) Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. Ecography 36:27–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dunn EH (2002) Mass change during migration stopover: a comparison of species groups and sites. J Field Ornithol 72:419–432

    Google Scholar 

  • Evans KL, Newton J, Mallord JW, Markman S (2012) Stable isotope analysis provides new information on winter habitat use of declining avian migrants that is relevant to their conservation. PLoS One 7:e34542

    Article  CAS  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Ferguson-Lees IJ, Castell R, Leech DI (2009) A field guide to monitoring nests. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford

    Google Scholar 

  • Gordo O, Sanz JJ (2008) The relative importance of conditions in wintering and passage areas on spring arrival dates: the case of long-distance Iberian migrants. J Ornithol 149:199–210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gordo O, Brotons L, Ferrer X, Comas P (2005) Do changes in climate patterns in wintering areas affect the timing of the spring arrival of trans-Saharan migrant birds? Glob Change Biol 11:12–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guillemain M, Elmberg J, Arzel C, Johnson AR, Simon G (2008) The income–capital breeding dichotomy revisited: late winter body condition is related to breeding success in an income breeder. Ibis 150:172–176

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harrison XA, Blount JD, Inger R, Norris DR, Bearhop S (2011) Carry-over effects as drivers of fitness differences in animals. J Anim Ecol 80:4–18

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Jørgensen PS, Tøttrup AP, Rahbek C, Geertsma M (2013) Effects of summer weather on reproductive success of the Red-backed Shrike (Lanius collurio). Bird Study 60:1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klaassen M (2002) Relationships between migration and breeding strategies in arctic breeding birds. In: Berthold P, Gwinner E, Sonnenschein E (eds) Avian migration. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp 237–249

    Google Scholar 

  • Laaksonen T, Ahola M, Eeva T, Vaisanen RA, Lehikoinen EA (2006) Climate change, migratory connectivity and changes in laying date and clutch size of the pied flycatcher. Oikos 114:277–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MacDonald EC, Camfield AF, Jankowski JE, Martin K (2013) Extended incubation recesses by alpine-breeding Horned Larks: a strategy for dealing with inclement weather? J Field Ornithol 84:58–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newton I (2004) Population limitation in migrants. Ibis 146:197–226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Norris DR, Marra PP (2007) Seasonal interactions, habitat quality, and population dynamics in migratory birds. Condor 109:535–547

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Norris DR, Marra PP, Kyser TK, Sherry TW, Ratcliffe LM (2004) Tropical winter habitat limits reproductive success on the temperate breeding grounds in a migratory bird. Proc R Soc Lond B 271:59–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ockendon N, Leech DI, Pearce-Higgins JW (2013) Climatic effects on breeding grounds are more important drivers of breeding phenology in migrant birds than carry-over effects from wintering grounds. Biol Lett 9:20130669

  • Peach W, Baillie SR, Underhill L (1991) Survival of British sedge warblers Acrocephalus schoenobaenus in relation to West African rainfall. Ibis 133:300–305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Post E, Forchhammer MC, Stenseth NC, Callaghan TV (2001) The timing of life-history events in a changing climate. Proc R Soc Lond B 268:15–23

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Quinn GP, Keough MJ (2002) Experimental design and data analysis for biologists. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Risely K, Massimino D, Johnston A, Newson SE, Eaton MA, Musgrove AJ, Noble DG, Procter D, Baillie SR (2012) The breeding bird survey 2011 BTO research report 624. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford

    Google Scholar 

  • Rockwell SM, Bocetti CI, Marra PP (2012) Carry-over effects of winter climate on spring arrival date and reproductive success in an endangered migratory bird, Kirtland’s Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii). Auk 129:744–752

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saino N, Szep T, Ambrosini R, Romano MR, Møller AP (2004a) Ecological conditions during winter affect sexual selection and breeding in a migratory bird. Proc R Soc Lond B 271:681–686

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saino N, Szep T, Romano MR, Rubolini D, Spina F, Møller AP (2004b) Ecological conditions during winter predict arrival date at the breeding quarters in a trans-Saharan migratory bird. Ecol Lett 7:21–25

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saino N, Rubolini D, Jonzen N, Ergon T, Montemaggiori A, Stenseth NC, Spina F (2007) Temperature and rainfall anomalies in Africa predict timing of spring migration in trans-Saharan migratory birds. Clim Res 35:123–134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saino N, Romano MR, Caprioli M, Ambrosini R, Rubolini D, Scandolara C, Romano A (2012) A ptilochronological study of carry-over effects of conditions during wintering on breeding performance in the barn swallow Hirundo rustica. J Avian Biol 43:513–524

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanderson FJ, Donald PF, Pain DJ, Burfield IJ, van Bommel FPJ (2006) Long-term population declines in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds. Biol Conserv 131:93–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schaub M, Jenni L, Bairlein F (2008) Fuel stores, fuel accumulation, and the decision to depart from a migration stopover site. Behav Ecol 19:657–666

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schaub M, Jakober H, Stauber W (2011) Demographic response to environmental variation in breeding, stopover and non-breeding areas in a migratory passerine. Oecologia 167:445–459

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Smith RJ, Moore FR (2005) Fat stores of American redstarts Setophaga ruticilla arriving at northerly breeding grounds. J Avian Biol 36:117–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Studds CE, Marra PP (2011) Rainfall-induced changes in food availability modify the spring departure programme of a migratory bird. Proc R Soc Lond B 278:3437–3443

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Summers RW, Green RE, Proctor R, Dugan D, Lambie D, Moncrieff R, Moss R, Baines D (2004) An experimental study of the effects of predation on the breeding productivity of capercaillie and black grouse. J Appl Ecol 41:513–525

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tyler GA, Green RE (2004) Effects of weather on the survival and growth of Corncrake Crex crex chicks. Ibis 146:69–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vatka E, Orell MI, Rytkonen SO (2011) Warming climate advances breeding and improves synchrony of food demand and food availability in a boreal passerine. Glob Change Biol 17:3002–3009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Visser ME, Holleman LJM, Gienapp P (2006) Shifts in caterpillar biomass phenology due to climate change and its impact on the breeding biology of an insectivorous bird. Oecologia 147:164–172

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Weidinger K, Kral M (2007) Climatic effects on arrival and laying dates in a long-distance migrant, the Collared Flycatcher Ficedula albicollis. Ibis 149:836–847

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wernham CV, Siriwardena GM, Toms MP, Marchant JW, Clark JA, Baillie SR (2002) The Migration Atlas: movements of the birds of Britain and Ireland. T & AD Poyser, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilcove DS, Wikelski MC (2008) Going, going, gone: is animal migration disappearing? PLoS Biol 6:e188

    Article  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Zwarts L, Bijlsma RG, van der Kamp J, Wymenga E (2009) Living on the edge: wetlands and birds in a changing Sahel. KNNV Publishing, Zeist

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank all those volunteers who contribute to the BTO’s Nest Record Scheme, and the Joint Nature Conservancy Council for helping to fund the scheme.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Tom Finch

    Present address: School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norfolk, NR4 7TJ, UK

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Animal & Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK

    Tom Finch & Karl L. Evans

  2. British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, IP24 2PU, UK

    James W. Pearce-Higgins & D. I. Leech

Authors
  1. Tom Finch
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. James W. Pearce-Higgins
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. D. I. Leech
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Karl L. Evans
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Karl L. Evans.

Additional information

Communicated by Stuart Pimm.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 50 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Finch, T., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Leech, D.I. et al. Carry-over effects from passage regions are more important than breeding climate in determining the breeding phenology and performance of three avian migrants of conservation concern. Biodivers Conserv 23, 2427–2444 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-014-0731-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-014-0731-5

Keywords

search

Navigation