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Identifying risk factors for persistent versus casual establishment to prioritize rapid response to non-indigenous aquarium fish

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Abstract

Rapid response strategies are necessary to effectively manage non-indigenous species. After detection, only few species persist and potentially cause harm. To help prioritize resources, we employed a multispecies, geographically explicit approach, focusing on non-indigenous aquarium fish establishment in the USA. We modeled casual (i.e. temporary) establishment and persistence separately, to identify which species should be prioritized after detection. To facilitate the usability of quantitative models, we converted our results into simple “rules of thumb”, wherein each factor’s contribution represents a multiplier. Finally, from a fundamental perspective, separating casual and persistent establishment improved our understanding of the earlier stages of invasions. We identified five species ranking highest for rapid response, if detected in California, New Mexico and Texas. These states, along with Florida and Hawaii, should take precedence in management funding, being those that currently host more persistent species and where more new establishments are forecasted. Expectedly, the important factors differed considerably between sub-stages, with species traits and propagule pressure being most relevant for casual establishment, and the environment being more predictive of persistence. Notably, propagule pressure had no effect on persistence, suggesting that it would not help target eradication for aquarium fish. Our model allows comparisons for > 1000 species across locations to target rapid responses after detection, and can provide guidance for species not currently traded. Our analysis re-evaluates “risky” species in terms of persistence, suggesting that many species which were flagged in the literature actually pose low risk. Conversely, we identify species that, if detected, warrant rapid response.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank E. Hudgins, D. Nguyen, N. Richards and S. Varadarajan for insightful discussions. This research was supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada—Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada—Discovery Grants to BL.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, McGill University, 1205 Docteur Penfield, Montreal, QC, H3A 1B1, Canada

    Lidia Della Venezia & Brian Leung

  2. McGill School of Environment, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

    Brian Leung

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  1. Lidia Della Venezia
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  2. Brian Leung
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Both LDV and BL conceived the project. LDV built and analysed the models, and derived the multiplicative risk factors for rapid response. LDV led the preparation of the manuscript, and both LDV and BL contributed to the final version.

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Correspondence to Lidia Della Venezia.

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Della Venezia, L., Leung, B. Identifying risk factors for persistent versus casual establishment to prioritize rapid response to non-indigenous aquarium fish. Biol Invasions 22, 1397–1410 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-019-02191-7

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