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Trade-associated pathways of alien forest insect entries in Canada

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Abstract

Long-distance introductions of new invasive species have often been driven by socioeconomic factors, such that traditional “biological” invasion models may not be capable of estimating spread fully and reliably. In this study we present a new methodology to characterize and predict pathways of human-assisted entries of alien forest insects. We have developed a stochastic quantitative model of how these species may be moved with commodity flow through a network of international marine ports and major transportation corridors in Canada. The study makes use of a Canadian roadside survey database and data on Canadian marine imports, complemented with geo-referenced information on ports of entry, populated places and empirical observations of historical spread rates for invasive pests. The model is formulated as a probabilistic pathway matrix, and allows for quantitative characterization of likelihoods and vectors of new pest introductions from already or likely-to-be infested locations. We applied the pathway model to estimate the rates of human-assisted entry of alien forest insect species across Canada as well as cross-border transport to locations in the US. Results suggest a relatively low nationwide entry rate for Canada when compared to the US (0.338 new forest insect species per year vs. 1.89). Among Canadian urban areas, Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver appear to have the highest alien forest insect entry potential, exhibiting species entry rates that are comparable with estimated rates at mid-size US urban metropolises.

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Acknowledgments

The authors extend their gratitude and thanks to Kirsty Willson, Marty Siltanen (Natural Resources Canada) and Ryan McMillan (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) for technical support and diligence with preparing the Canadian roadside database and helping undertake the pathway modeling study; Marcel Dowson, Julia Dunlop and Annie Baxter (Canadian Food Inspection Agency) for help with acquiring the Canadian roadside database; and Roger Magarey (North Carolina State University) and Joseph Cavey (USDA APHIS) for help with accessing the PestID database. The participation of Denys Yemshanov was supported by interdepartmental NRCan—CFIA Forest Invasive Alien Species initiative. The participation of Frank Koch was supported by Research Joint Venture Agreements #09-JV-11330146-087 and #10-JV-11330146-064 between the USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC and North Carolina State University. The participation of Mark Ducey was supported by the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program Grant No. 2010-85605-20584 from the National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON, P6A 2E5, Canada

    Denys Yemshanov

  2. USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, 3041 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709, USA

    Frank H. Koch

  3. Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, 114 James Hall, Durham, NH, 03824, USA

    Mark Ducey

  4. Canadian Food Inspection Agency, 59 Camelot Drive, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0Y9, USA

    Klaus Koehler

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  1. Denys Yemshanov
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  2. Frank H. Koch
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Correspondence to Denys Yemshanov.

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Yemshanov, D., Koch, F.H., Ducey, M. et al. Trade-associated pathways of alien forest insect entries in Canada. Biol Invasions 14, 797–812 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-011-0117-5

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