Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Predicting the spread of invasive species in an uncertain world: accommodating multiple vectors and gaps in temporal and spatial data for Bythotrephes longimanus

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Biological Invasions Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Real-world uncertainties and data limitations make it difficult to predict how, when and where non-indigenous species (NIS) will spread. Typically only a small fraction of sites are sampled during only a few time intervals, such that we know neither the full spatial extent nor the true temporal progress of invasion. Yet, these unsampled locations might affect the invasion dynamics. We extend propagule pressure models to incorporate both human-mediated and natural fluvial dispersal vectors, and develop techniques to incorporate missing spatial and temporal data on invasions. We apply our model to Bythotrephes longimanus, a high-risk aquatic NIS, using a regional-scale 311-lake survey in a popular watershed in Ontario and extending our analysis to 1,300 unsampled lakes. Of 100 model runs with different random subsets of 50 sampled lakes reserved for validation, we were able to obtain an average area under the curve value of 0.89. Human-mediated dispersal accounted for 99.75% of the contribution of propagules to probability of establishment. Although the discovery rate is accelerating, our results suggest the annual rate of lake invasions is decelerating over time. Management efforts controlling recreational boating traffic out of the largest lakes in the system will be the most effective way of slowing the spread of B. longimanus in lakes within this system.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anderson RP, Martinez-Meyer E (2004) Modeling species’ geographic distributions for preliminary conservation assessments: an implementation with the spiny pocket mice (Heteromys) of Ecuador. Biol Conserv 116:167–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bobeldyk AM, Bossenbroek JM, Evans-White MA, Lodge DM, Lamberti GA (2005) Secondary spread of zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) in coupled lake-stream systems. Ecoscience 12:339–346

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bossenbroek JM, Kraft CE, Nekola JC (2001) Prediction of long-distance dispersal using gravity models: Zebra mussel invasion of inland lakes. Ecol Appl 11:1778–1788

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bossenbroek JM, Johnson LE, Peters B, Lodge DM (2007) Forecasting the expansion of zebra mussels in the United States. Conserv Biol 21:800–810

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Boudreau SA, Yan ND (2004) Auditing the accuracy of a volunteer-based surveillance program for an aquatic invader Bythotrephes. Environ Monit Assess 91:17–26

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Buchan LAJ, Padilla DK (1999) Estimating the probability of long-distance overland dispersal of invading aquatic species. Ecol Appl 9:254–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bur MT, Klarer DM, Krieger KA (1986) 1st Records of a European Cladoeran, Bythotrephes-Cederstroemi, in Lakes Erie and Huron. J Great Lakes Res 12:144–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cairns A, Yan N, Weisz E, Petruniak J, Hoare J (2007) Operationalizing CAISN project 1.V technical report: the large, inland lake, Bythotrephes survey—limnology, database design, and presence of Bythotrephes in 311 south-central Ontario lakes, Canadian Aquatic Invading Species Network technical report

  • Costello CJ, Solow AR (2003) On the pattern of discovery of introduced species. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100:3321–3323

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Dennis B (2002) Allee effects in stochastic populations. Oikos 96:389–401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drake JM (2004) Allee effects and the risk of biological invasion. Risk Anal 24:795–802

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Drake JM, Lodge DM (2006) Allee effects, propagule pressure and the probability of establishment: Risk analysis for biological invasions. Biol Invasions 8:365–375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fielding AH, Bell JF (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24:38–49

    Google Scholar 

  • Hastings A, Cuddington D, Davies KF, Dugaw CJ, Elmendorf S, Freestone A, Harrison A, Holland M, Lambrinos J, Malvadkar U, Melbourne BA, Moore K, Taylor C, Thomson D (2005) The spatial spread of invasions: new developments in theory and evidence. Ecol Lett 8:91–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herborg LM, Jerde CL, Lodge DM, Ruiz GM, MacIsaac HJ (2007) Predicting invasion risk using measures of introduction effort and environmental niche models. Ecol Appl 17:663–674

    Google Scholar 

  • Hyder A, Leung B, Miao ZW (2008) Integrating Data, Biology, and Decision Models for Invasive Species Management: Application to Leafy Spurge (Euphorbia esula). Ecol Soc 13:16

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs MJ, MacIsaac HJ (2007) Fouling of fishing line by the waterflea Cercopagis pengoi: a mechanism of human-mediated dispersal of zooplankton? Hydrobiologia 583:119–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs MJ, MacIsaac HJ (2009) Modelling spread of the invasive macrophyte Cabomba caroliniana. Freshwat Biol 54:296–305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jerde CL, Lewis MA (2007) Waiting for invasions: a framework for the arrival of nonindigenous species. Am Nat 170:1–9

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson LE, Padilla DK (1996) Geographic spread of exotic species: ecological lessons and opportunities from the invasion of the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha. Biol Conserv 78:23–33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson LE, Bossenbroek JM, Kraft CE (2006) Patterns and pathways in the post-establishment spread of non-indigenous aquatic species: the slowing invasion of North American inland lakes by the zebra mussel. Biol Invasions 8:475–489

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kolar CS, Lodge DM (2002) Ecological predictions and risk assessment for alien fishes in North America. Science 298:1233–1236

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Leung B, Delaney DG (2006) Managing sparse data in biological invasions: a simulation study. Ecol Model 198:229–239

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leung B, Mandrak NE (2007) The risk of establishment of aquatic invasive species: joining invasibility and propagule pressure. Proc R Soc Lond [Biol] 274:2603–2609

  • Leung B, Drake JM, Lodge DM (2004) Predicting invasions: propagule pressure and the gravity of Allee effects. Ecology 85:1651–1660

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leung B, Bossenbroek JM, Lodge DM (2006) Boats, pathways, and aquatic biological invasions: estimating dispersal potential with gravity models. Biol Invasions 8:241–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levine JM, Adler PB, Yelenik SG (2004) A meta-analysis of biotic resistance to exotic plant invasions. Ecol Lett 7:975–989

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lockwood JL, Cassey P, Blackburn T (2005) The role of propagule pressure in explaining species invasions. Trends Ecol Evol 20:223–228

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Lodge DM, Williams S, MacIsaac HJ, Hayes KR, Leung B, Reichard S, Mack RN, Moyle PB, Smith M, Andow DA, Carlton JT, McMichael A (2006) Biological invasions: recommendations for US policy and management. Ecol Appl 16:2035–2054

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Loo SE, Keller RP, Leung B (2007) Freshwater invasions: using historical data to analyse spread. Divers Distrib 13:23–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MacIsaac HJ, Ketelaars HAM, Grigorovich IA, Ramcharan CW, Yan ND (2000) Modeling Bythotrephes longimanus invasions in the Great Lakes basin based on its European distribution. Arch Hydrobiol 149:1–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Marleau J (2006) Backroad mapbook: cottage Country Ontario. Mussio Ventures Ltd., Burnaby, BC

    Google Scholar 

  • Muirhead JR (2007) Forecasting dispersal of nonindigenous species. University of Windsor, Windsor, ON

    Google Scholar 

  • Muirhead JR, Macisaac HJ (2005) Development of inland lakes as hubs in an invasion network. J Appl Ecol 42:80–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prasad AM, Iverson LR, Peters MP, Bossenbroek JM, Matthews SN, Sydnor TD, Schwartz MW (2010) Modeling the invasive emerald ash borer risk of spread using a spatially explicit cellular model. Landscape Ecol 25:353–369

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reed-Andersen T, Bennett EM, Jorgensen BS, Lauster G, Lewis DB, Nowacek D, Riera JL, Sanderson BL, Stedman R (2000) Distribution of recreational boating across lakes: do landscape variables affect recreational use? Freshwat Biol 43:439–448

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ricciardi A (2006) Patterns of invasion in the Laurentian Great Lakes in relation to changes in vector activity. Divers Distrib 12:425–433

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ricciardi A, Rasmussen JB (1998) Predicting the identity and impact of future biological invaders: a priority for aquatic resource management. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 55:1759–1765

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider DW, Ellis CD, Cummings KS (1998) A transportation model assessment of the risk to native mussel communities from zebra mussel spread. Conserv Biol 12:788–800

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solow AR, Costello CJ (2004) Estimating the rate of species introductions from the discovery record. Ecology 85:1822–1825

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisz EJ, Yan ND (2010) Relative value of limnological, geographic, and human use variables as predictions of the presence of Bythotrephes longimanus in Canadian Shield lakes. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 67:462–472

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yan ND, Pawson TW (1997) Changes in the crustacean zooplankton community of Harp Lake, Canada, following invasion by Bythotrephes cederstroemi. Freshwat Biol 37:409–425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yan ND, Dunlop WI, Pawson TW, Mackay LE (1992) Bythotrephes-Cederstroemi (Schoedler) in Muskoka Lakes—1st Records of the European Invader in Inland Lakes in Canada. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 49:422–426

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank C. Brisson, A. Irwin and J. Proville for assistance with data collection and processing. Thank you to N. Yan and the 300-lake survey team for lake data and the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources for GIS data. We thank C. Chivers, P. Edwards and S. Kulhanek for helpful comments on the manuscript. This work was funded by the Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network, through grants awarded to Dr. B. Leung.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, QC, H3A 1B1, Canada

    Erin L. Gertzen & Brian Leung

  2. McGill School of Environment, McGill University, Montreal, QC, H3A 1B1, Canada

    Brian Leung

Authors
  1. Erin L. Gertzen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Brian Leung
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Erin L. Gertzen.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gertzen, E.L., Leung, B. Predicting the spread of invasive species in an uncertain world: accommodating multiple vectors and gaps in temporal and spatial data for Bythotrephes longimanus . Biol Invasions 13, 2433–2444 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-011-0082-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-011-0082-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation