Biological Invasions

, Volume 14, Issue 8, pp 1571–1586

Predicting insect distributions under climate change from physiological responses: spruce budworm as an example

Original Paper

Abstract

Much evidence is accumulating that insect distributions are changing. The changing earth’s climate is providing mobile species with an evolving “hospitability” template, and increasing global commerce expands opportunities for mobile species to colonize new habitats. Predicting the distribution of insects in the face of accelerating global commerce and climate change is quite a challenge. Many fruitful approaches are available and are being improved. Some are correlative; some are based on process-level knowledge. We have focused on an eco-physiological approach based on the known responses of species to specific weather factors at the physiological level. Of particular importance are developmental responses, of course, as they determine climates under which an insect can achieve a stable, adaptive seasonality. With this underlying minimal requirement, models can also take into account other weather influences such as cold tolerance and the deleterious effects of too much heat. In this paper, we illustrated the use of this approach to predict the change of distribution and potential impacts of the spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.), a major native insect pest of conifer forests in North America. Like previous work on the invasive gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) and the native mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), the present work points to the following conclusions concerning the effects of global warming on species distributions: (1) they will shift towards the poles (and to higher elevations); (2) temperate regions will bear the brunt of these shifts; and (3) distribution shifts may be good or bad, depending on the species and the regions concerned.

Keywords

Distribution shift Invasion Forest insect Choristoneura fumiferana Climatic suitability Climate change 

References

  1. Andrew NR, Hughes L (2005) Diversity and assemblage structure of phytophagous Hemiptera along a latitudinal gradient: predicting the potential impacts of climate change. Global Ecol Biogeo 14:249–262CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Ayres MP, Lombardero MJ (2000) Assessing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens. Sci Total Environ 262:263–286PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bale JS, Masters GJ, Hodkinson ID, Awmack C, Bezemer TM, Brown VK, Butterfield J, Buse A, Coulson JC, Farrar J, Good JEG, Harrington R, Hartley S, Jones TH, Lindroth RL, Press MC, Symrnioudis I, Watt AD, Whittaker JB (2002) Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Global Change Biol 8:1–16CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bentz B, Régnière J, Fettig CJ, Hansen EM, Hayes JL, Hicke JA, Kelsey RG, Lundquist J, Negrón JF, Seybold SJ (2010) Climate change and bark beetles of the western US and Canada: direct and indirect effects. Bioscience 60:602–613CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Blais JR (1958) Effects of 1956 spring and summer temperature on spruce budworm populations (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) in the Gaspé peninsula. Can Entomol 90:354–361CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Blais JR (1985) Impact of the spruce budworm on balsam fir and white spruce in the Laurentian reserve, Quebec: an interim report. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Information Report LAU-X-68Google Scholar
  7. Boulanger Y, Arseneault D (2004) Spruce budworm outbreaks in eastern Quebec over the last 450 years. Can J For Res 34:1035–1043CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Burleigh JS, Alfaro RI, Borden JH, Taylor S (2002) Historical and spatial characteristics of spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) outbreaks in northeastern British Columbia. For Ecol Manag 168:301–309CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Candau J-N, Fleming RA (2005) Landscape-scale spatial distribution of spruce budworm defoliation in relation to bioclimatic conditions. Can J For Res 35:2218–2232Google Scholar
  10. Chuine I, Beaubien EG (2001) Phenology is a major determinant of tree species range. Ecol Letters 4:500–510CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Chuine I, Cour P, Rousseau DD (1998) Fitting models predicting dates of flowering of temperate-zone trees using simulated annealing. Plant Cell Environ 21:455–466CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Conrad KF, Woiwod IP, Parsons M, Fox R, Warren MS (2004) Long-term population trends in widespread British moths. J Ins Conserv 8:119–136Google Scholar
  13. Dale VH, Joyce LA, McNulty S, Meilson RP, Ayres MP, Flannigan MD, Hanson PJ, Irland LC, Lugo AE, Peterson CJ, Simberloff D, Swanson FJ, Stocks BJ, Wotton M (2001) Climate change and forest disturbances. Bioscience 51:723–734CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Du Merle P, Brunet S, Cornic J-F (1992) Polyphagous potentialities of Choristoneura murinana Hb. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) a monophagous folivore extending its host range. J Appl Entomol 113:18–40CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Dukes JS, Pontius J, Orwig D, Garnas JR, Rodgers VL, Brazee N, Cooke B, Theoharides KA, Stange EE, Harrington R, Ehrenfeld J, Gurevitch J, Lerdau M, Stinson K, Wick R, Ayres M (2009) Responses of insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plant species to climate change in the forests of northeastern North America: what can we predict? Can J For Res 39:231–248CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Estay SA, Lima M, Labra FA (2009) Predicting insect pest status under climate change scenarios: combining experimental data and population dynamics modelling. J App Entomol 133:491–499CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Gray DR (2008) The relationship between climate and outbreak characteristics of the spruce budworm in eastern Canada. Clim Change 87:361–383CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Greenbank DO (1956) The role of climate and dispersal in the initiation of outbreaks of the spruce budworm in New Brunswick: 1—the Role of climate. Can J Zool 34:453–476CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Greenbank DO (1957) The role of climate and dispersal in the initiation of outbreaks of the spruce budworm in New Brunswick: 2—the role of dispersal. Can J Zool 35:385–403CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Han E-N, Bauce E (1997) Effects of early temperature exposure on diapause development of spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Environ Entomol 26:307–310Google Scholar
  21. Han E-N, Bauce E (2000) Dormancy in the life cycle of the spruce budworm: physiological mechanisms and ecological implications. Recent Res Devel Entomol 3:43–64Google Scholar
  22. Han E-N, Bauce E, Trempe-Bertrand F (2000) Development of the first-instar spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Ann Entomol Soc Am 93:536–540CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Harvey GT (1958) A relationship between photoperiod and cold-storage treatment in the spruce budworm. Science 128:1205–1206PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Harvey GT (1985) Spruce budworm distribution (a CANUSA paper?)Google Scholar
  25. Hudson G, Wackernagel H (1994) Mapping temperature using kriging with external drift: theory and an example from Scotland. Int J Climatol 14:77–91CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Hunter A, Elkinton JS (2000) Effects of synchrony with host plant on populations of a spring-feeding lepidopteran. Ecology 81:1248–1261CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate change 2007: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  28. Ives WGH (1974) Weather and outbreaks of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Lepidoptera; Tortricidae). Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Information Report NOR-X-118Google Scholar
  29. Jardon Y, Morin H, Dutilleul P (2003) Périodicité et synchronisme des épidémies de la tordeuse des bourgeons de l’épinette au Québec. Can J For Res 33:1947–1961CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Kramer K, Leinonen I, Loutau D (2000) The importance of phenology for the evaluation of impact of climate change on growth of boreal, temperate and Mediterranean forest ecosystems: an overview. Int Journal Biometeorol 44:67–75CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Lethiecq J-L, Régnière J (1988) CFS spruce budworm population studies: site descriptions. Natural resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Information Report LAU-X-83, pp 1–46Google Scholar
  32. Little EL (1971) Atlas of United States trees, vol. 1 Conifers and important hardwoods. USDA Miscellaneous Publication 1146, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  33. Logan JA, Régnière J, Powell JA (2003) Assessing the impacts of global warming on forest pest dynamics. Frontiers Ecol Environ 1:130–137CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Lucuik GS (1984) Effect of climatic factors on post-diapause emergence and survival of spruce budworm larvae (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Can Entomol 116:1077–1083CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Lysyk TJ (1989) Stochastic model of eastern spruce budworm (Lepidoptera Tortricidae) phenology on white spruce and balsam fir. J Econ Entomol 82:1161–1168Google Scholar
  36. MacKinnon WE, MacLean DA (2003) The influence of forest and stand conditions on spruce budworm defoliation in New Brunswick, Canada. For Science 49:657–667Google Scholar
  37. Maclean DA (1980) Vulnerability of fir spruce stands during uncontrolled spruce budworm outbreaks: a review and discussion. For Chron 56:213–221Google Scholar
  38. Merrill RM, Gutérrez D, Lewis OT, Gutiérrez J, Díez SB, Wilson RJ (2008) Combined effects of climate and biotic interactions on the elevational range of a phytophagous insect. J Anim Ecol 77:145–155PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Music B, Caya D (2007) Evaluation of the hydrological cycle over the Mississippi River basin as simulated by the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM). J Hydrometeorol 8:969–988CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Nealis VG, Régnière J (2004) Insect-host relationships influencing disturbance by the spruce budworm in a boreal mixedwood forest. Can J For Res 34:1870–1882CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Netherer S, Schopf A (2010) Potential effects of climate change on insect herbivores in European forests—General aspects and the pine processionary moth as specific example. For Ecology Manag 259:831–838CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Payette S (2007) Contrasted dynamics of northern Labrador tree lines caused by climate change and migration lag. Ecology 88:770–780PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Raupach MR, Marland G, Ciais P, Le Quéré C, Canadell JG, Klepper G, Field CB (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. PNAS 104:10288–10293PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Régnière J (1982) A process-oriented model of spruce budworm phenology (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Can Entomol 114:811–825CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Régnière J (1983) An oviposition model for the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Can Entomol 115:1371–1382CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Régnière J (1987) Temperature-dependent development of eggs and larvae of Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) and simulation of its seasonal history. Can Entomol 119:717–728CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Régnière J (1990) Diapause termination and changes in thermal responses during postdiapause development in larvae of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana. J Ins Physiol 36:727–735CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Régnière J, Duval P (1998) Overwintering mortality of spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), populations under field conditions. Can Entomol 130:13–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Régnière J, Nealis VG (2007) Ecological mechanisms of population change during outbreaks of the spruce budworm. Ecol Entomol 32:461–477CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Régnière J, Nealis VG (2008) The fine-scale population dynamics of spruce budworm: survival of early instars related to forest condition. Ecol Entomol 33:362–373CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Régnière J, St-Amant R (2007) Stochastic simulation of daily air temperature and precipitation from monthly normals in North America north of Mexico. Int J Biometeorol 51:415–430PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Régnière J, St-Amant R (2008) BioSIM 9 User’s Manual. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Information Report LAU-X-134Google Scholar
  53. Régnière J, You M (1991) A simulation model of spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) feeding on balsam fir and white spruce. Ecological Modelling 54:277–297CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Régnière J, Nealis VG, Porter K (2009) Climate suitability and management of the gypsy moth invasion into Canada. Biol Invasions 11:135–148CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Royama T (1978) Do weather factors influence the dynamics of spruce budworm populations? Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service. Bi-Monthy Research Notes 34(2):9–10Google Scholar
  56. Royama T (1984) Population dynamics of the spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana. Ecol Monogr 54:429–462CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Royama T (2005) Moran effect on non-linear population processes. Ecol Monogr 75:227–293CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Safranyik L, Carroll AL, Régnière J, Langor DW, Riel WG, Shore TL, Peter B, Cooke BJ, Nealis VG, Taylor SW (2010) Potential for range expansion of the mountain pine beetle into the boreal forest. Can Entomol 142:415–442CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Simard I, Morin H, Lavoie C (2006) A millenial-scale reconstruction of spruce budworm abundance in Saguenay, Québec, Canada. Holocene 16:31–37Google Scholar
  60. Simberloff D (2000) Global climate change and introduced species in United States forests. Sci Total Environ 262:253–261PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Su Q, MacLean DA, Needham TD (1996) The influence of hardwood content on balsam fir defoliation by spruce budworm. Can J For Res 26:1620–1628CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Sutherst RW, Maywald GF (1991) Climate-matching for quarantine using CLIMEX. Plant Prot Quarterly 6:3–7Google Scholar
  63. Thomson AJ, Benton R (2007) A 90-year sea warming trend explains outbreak patterns of western spruce budworm on Vancouver Island. For Chron 83:867–869Google Scholar
  64. Tobin PC, Nagarkatti S, Loeab G, Saunders MC (2008) Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species. Global Change Biol 14:951–957CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Trier TM, Mattson WJ (1997) Needle mining by the spruce budworm provides sustenance in the midst of privation. Oikos 79:241–246CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Visser ME, Both C (2005) Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick. Proc Roy Soc B 272:2561–2569CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Walther G-R, Roques A, Hulme PE, Sykes MT, Pysek P, Kühn I, Zobel M, Bacher S, Botta-Dukat Z, Bugmann H, Czucz B, Dauber J, Hickler T, Jarosyk V, Kenis M, Klotz S, Minchin D, Moora M, Nentwig W, Ott J, Panov VE, Reineking B, Robinet C, Semenchenko V, Solarz W, Thuiller W, Vila M, Vohland K, Settele J (2009) Alien species in a warmer world: risks and opportunities. Trends Ecol Evol 24:686–693PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Ward NL, Masters GJ (2007) Linking climate change and species invasion: an illustration using insect herbivores. Global Change Biol 13:1605–1615CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Williams DW, Liebhold AM (1995) Forest defoliators and climatic change: potential changes in spatial distribution of outbreaks of western spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) and gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae). Environ Entomol 24:1–9Google Scholar
  70. Williams DW, Liebhold AM (1997) Latitudinal shifts in spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) outbreaks and spruce-fir forest distributions with climate change. Acta Phytopath Entomol Hungarica 32:205–215Google Scholar
  71. Williams DW, Liebhold AM (2000) Spatial synchrony of spruce budworm outbreaks in eastern North America. Ecology 81:2753–2766Google Scholar
  72. Yang LH, Rudolf VHW (2010) Phenology, ontology and the effects of climate change on the timing of species interactions. Ecol Lett 13:1–10PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jacques Régnière
    • 1
  • Rémi St-Amant
    • 1
  • Pierre Duval
    • 1
  1. 1.Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry CentreQuebecCanada

Personalised recommendations