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Predicting establishment success for alien reptiles and amphibians: a role for climate matching

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Abstract

We examined data comprising 1,028 successful and 967 failed introduction records for 596 species of alien reptiles and amphibians around the world to test for factors influencing establishment success. We found significant variations between families and between genera. The number of jurisdictions where a species was introduced was a significant predictor of the probability the species had established in at least one jurisdiction. All species that had been introduced to more than 10 jurisdictions (34 species) had established at least one alien population. We also conducted more detailed quantitative comparisons for successful (69 species) and failed (116 species) introductions to three jurisdictions (Great Britain, California and Florida) to test for associations with climate match, geographic range size, and history of establishment success elsewhere. Relative to failed species, successful species had better climate matches between the jurisdiction where they were introduced and their geographic range elsewhere in the world. Successful species were also more likely to have high establishment success rates elsewhere in the world. Cross-validations indicated our full model correctly categorized establishment success with 78–80% accuracy. Our findings may guide risk assessments for the import of live alien reptiles and amphibians to reduce the rate new species establish in the wild.

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Abbreviations

ROC:

Receiver operating characteristic curve

USA:

United States of America

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Acknowledgements

L. Brown, B. Raphael and L. Walter assisted with climate matching. J. Crombie did the analysis for Fig. 1. Overseas ranges were calculated with a digitized system developed by L. Randall. Funding was provided by the Australian Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre, the Australian Government Department of Environment and Heritage, the USA Fish and Wildlife Service and the Hawaii Invasive Species Council.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bureau of Rural Sciences, GPO Box 858, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

    Mary Bomford & Emma Lawrence

  2. Department of Natural Sciences, Bishop Museum, 1525 Bernice St., Honolulu, HI, 96817, USA

    Fred Kraus

  3. CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences, GPO Box 664, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

    Simon C. Barry

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  1. Mary Bomford
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  2. Fred Kraus
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  3. Simon C. Barry
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  4. Emma Lawrence
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Correspondence to Emma Lawrence.

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Bomford, M., Kraus, F., Barry, S.C. et al. Predicting establishment success for alien reptiles and amphibians: a role for climate matching. Biol Invasions 11, 713–724 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-008-9285-3

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