Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Are there any consistent predictors of invasion success?

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Biological Invasions Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This article summarises the results of 49 studies that together test the significance of 115 characteristics in 7 biological groups: birds, finfish, insects, mammals, plants, reptiles/amphibians and shellfish. Climate/habitat match, history of invasive success and number of arriving/released individuals are associated with establishment success in at least four independent data sets, both within and across biological groups, and none are contraindicated by other studies. In the introduced-invasive control group, two species level characteristics—taxon and geographic range size—were significantly associated with establishment success across two biological groups. These characteristics, however, were not supported by independent data sets, or were contraindicated by these data sets, within the biological groups examined here. In the introduced-native control group, three species level characteristics—geographic range size, leaf surface area and fertilisation system (monoecious, hermaphroditic or dioecious)—were consistently supported within plants but were either not supported by independent data sets or contraindicated by datasets within or across other biological groups. Climate/habitat match is the only characteristic that is consistently significantly associated with invasive behaviour (in this case exotic range size) across biological groups. This finding, however, is not supported by two or more independent data sets within any of the biological groups examined here. Within plants there are a suite of characteristics, predominately associated with reproduction, that are significantly associated with a range of invasion metrics, predominately abundance in the invaded range. None of these characteristics, however, are supported across any other biological groups. We note the confounding effects of phylogeny, residence time and propagule pressure and suggest that site- and taxa-specific analysis will provide further useful insights.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen CR (2006) Predictors of introduction success in the south Florida avifauna. Biol Invasions 8:491–500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alroth P, Alatalo RV, Holopainen A, Kumpulainen T, Suhonen J (2003) Founder population size and the number of source populations enhance colonisation success in water striders. Oecologia 137:617–620

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arim M, Abades SR, Neill PE, Lima M, Marquet PA (2006) Spread dynamics of invasive species. Proc Natl Acad Sci 103(2):374–378

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Arthington AH, Mitchell DS (1986) Aquatic invading species, pp 34–53. In: Groves RH, Burden JJ (eds) Ecology of biological invasions: an Australian perspective. Australian Academy of Science, Canberra, Australia

    Google Scholar 

  • Arthington AH, Kailola PJ, Woodland DJ, Zalucki JM (1999) Baseline environmental data relevant to an evaluation of quarantine risk potentially associated with the importation to Australia of ornamental finfish. Report to the Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service, Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra, Australia, 444 pp

  • Baker HG (1965) Characteristics and modes of origin of weeds. In: Baker HG, Stebbins CL (eds) The genetics of colonising species. Academic Press, New York, USA, pp 147–169

    Google Scholar 

  • Baker HG (1986) Patterns of plant invasion in North America. In: Mooney HA, Drake JA (eds) Ecological of Biological Invasions of North America and Hawaii. Springer-Verlag, New York, pp 44–57

    Google Scholar 

  • Baruch Z, Goldstein G (1999) Leaf construction costs, nutrient concentration and net CO2 assimilation of native and invasive species in Hawaii. Oecologia 121:183–192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bass DA, Crossman ND, Lawrie SL, Lethbridge MR (2006) The importance of population growth, seed dispersal and habitat suitability in determining plant invasiveness. Euphytica 148:97–109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bazzaz FA (1986) Life history of colonising plants: some demographic, genetic and physiological features, pp 97–110. In Mooney HA, Drake JA (eds) Ecology of biological invasions of North America and Hawaii. Springer-Verlag, New York, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Beggren A (2001) Colonisation success in Roesel’s bush cricket Metrioptera roeseli: the effects of propagule size. Ecology 82(1):274–280

    Google Scholar 

  • Bellingham PJ, Duncan RP, Lee WG, Buxton RP (2004) Seedling growth rate and survival do not predict invasiveness in naturalised woody plants in New Zealand. Oikos 106:308–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blackburn TM, Duncan RP (2001) Determinants of establishment success in introduced birds. Nature 414(8):195–197

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Bomford M, Kraus J, Braysher M, Walter L, Brown L (2005) Risk assessment model for the import and keeping of exotic reptiles and amphibians. Bureau of Rural Sciences, Canberra, Australia, 110 pp

  • Bomford M, Glover J (2004) Risk assessment model for import and keeping of exotic freshwater and estuarine finfish. Bureau of Rural Sciences, Canberra, Australia, 125 pp

  • Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Springer-Verlag, New York, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Breslow N, Clayton D (1993) Approximate inference in generalized linear mixed models. J Am Stat Assoc 88:9–25

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooke RK, Lockwood JL, Moulton MP (1995) Patterns of success in passeriform bird introductions on Saint Helena. Oecologia 103:337–342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bruton MN (1986) Life-history styles of invasive fishes in Southern Africa, pp 201–208. In: MacDonald IAW, Kruger FJ, Ferrar AA (eds) The ecology and management of biological invasions in Southern Africa. Oxford University Press, Cape Town, South Africa

    Google Scholar 

  • Cadotte MW, Lovett-Doust J (2001) Ecological and taxonomic differences between native and introduced plants of southwestern Ontario. Ecoscience 8(2):230–238

    Google Scholar 

  • Cadotte MW, Murray BR, Lovett-Doust J (2006) Evolutionary and ecological influences of plant invader success in the flora of Ontario. Ecoscience 13(3):388–395

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caley P, Kuhnert PM (2006) Application and evaluation of classification trees for screening unwanted plants. Aust Ecol 31:647–655

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carlton JT (1996) Biological invasions and cryptogenic species. Ecology 77(6):1653–1655

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cassey P (2001) Determining variation in the success of New Zealand land birds. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 10:161–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cassey P (2002) Life history and ecology influences establishment success of introduced land birds. Biol J Linn Soc 76:465–480

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cassey P, Blackburn TM, Sol D, Duncan RP, Lockwood JL (2004a) Global patterns of introduction effort and establishment success in birds. Proc R Soc Lond B (Suppl.) 271:S405–S408

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cassey P, Blackburn TM, Jones KE, Lockwood JL (2004b) Mistakes in the analysis of exotic species establishment: source pool designation and correlates of introduction success among parrots (Aves: Psittaciformes) of the world. J Biogeogr 31:277–284

    Google Scholar 

  • Cassey P, Blackburn TM, Duncan RP, Lockwood JL (2005) Lessons from the establishment of exotic species: a meta-analytical case study using birds. J Anim Ecol 74:250–258

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cote IM, Reynolds JD (2002) Predictive ecology to the rescue? Science 298:1181–1182

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Crawley MJ (1987) What makes a community invasible? In: Gray AJ, Crawley MJ, Edwards PJ (eds) Colonization, succession and stability. The 26th Symposium of the British Ecological Society held Jointly with the Linnaean Society of London. Blackwell Science, Oxford, England, pp 429–453

  • Crawley MJ, Harvey PH, Purvis A (1996) Comparative ecology of the native and alien floras of the British Isles. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B 351:1251–1259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daehler CC (1998) The taxonomic distribution of invasive angiosperm plants: ecological insights and comparison to agricultural weeds. Biol Conserv 84:167–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dennis B (2002) Allee effects in stochastic populations. Oikos 96:389–401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duncan RP (1997) The role of competition and introduction effort in the success of passiform birds introduced to New Zealand. Am Nat 149:903–915

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duncan RP, Blackburn TM, Veltman CJ (1999) Determinants of geographical range sizes: a test using introduced New Zealand birds. J Anim Ecol 68:963–975

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duncan RP, Bomford M, Forsyth DM, Conibear L (2001) High predictability in introduction outcomes and the geographical range size of introduced Australian birds: a role for climate. J Anim Ecol 70:621–632

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ehrlich PR (1989) Attributes of invaders and the invading process: vertebrates. In: Drake JA (ed) Biological invasions: a global perspective. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester, England, pp 315–327

    Google Scholar 

  • Forsyth DM, Duncan RP (2001) Propagule size and the relative success of exotic ungulate and bird introductions to New Zealand. Am Nat 157(6):583–595

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Forsyth DM, Duncan RP, Bomford M, Moore G (2004) Climatic suitability, life-history traits, introduction effort, and the establishment and spread of introduced mammals in Australia. Conserv Biol 18(2):557–569

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garcia-Berthou E, Alcaraz C, Pou-Rivira Q, Zamora L Coenders G, Feo C (2005) Introduction pathways and establishment rates of invasive aquatic species in Europe. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 62:453–463

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goodwin BJ, McAllister AJ, Fahrig L (1999) Predicting invasiveness of plant species based on biological information. Conserv Biol 13(2):422–426

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Green RE (1997) The influence of numbers released on the outcome of attempts to introduce exotic bird species to New Zealand. J Anim Ecol 66:25–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Griffith B, Scott JM, Carpenter JW, Reed C (1989) Translocation as a species conservation tool: status and strategy. Science 245:477–480

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Grotkopp E, Rejmanek M, Rost TL (2002) Toward a causal explanation of plant invasiveness: seedling growth and life-history strategies of 29 pine (Pinus) species. Am Nat 159(4):396–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greustad FS (1999) Experimental invasions using biological control introductions: the influence of release size on the chance of population establishment. Biol Invasions 1:313–323

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton MA, Murray BR, Cadotte MW, Hose GC, Baker AC, Harris CJ, Licari D (2005) Life-history correlates of plant invasiveness at regional and continental scales. Ecol Lett 8:1066–1074

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hee JJ, Holway DA, Suarez AV, Case TJ (2000) Role of propagule size in the success of incipient colonies of the invasive argentine ant. Conserv Biol 14(2):559–563

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heger T, Trepl L (2003) Predicting biological invasions. Biol Invasions 5:313–321

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holdgate MW (1986) Summary and conclusions: characteristics and consequences of biological invasions. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B314:733–742

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holway DA, Suarez AV (1999) Animal behaviour: an essential component of invasion biology. Trends Ecol Evol 14(8):328–330

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Kailola PJ (2000) Development of an alert list for non-native freshwater fishes. Final report to Environment Australia, Patricia Kailola, Consultant, Newnham, Tasmania, Australia, 43 pp

  • Keller RP, Drake JM, Lodge DM (2007) Fecundity as a basis for risk assessment of non-indigenous freshwater molluscs. Conserv Biol 21(1):191–200

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Kolar CS, Lodge DM (2002) Ecological predictions and risk assessment for alien fishes in North America. Science 298:1233–1236

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kolar CS, Lodge DM (2001) Progress in invasion biology: predicting invaders. Trends Ecol Evol 16(4):199–204

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Krivanek M, Pysek P (2006) Predicting invasion by woody species in a temperate zone: a test of three risk assessment schemes in the Czech Republic (Central Europe). Divers Distrib 12:319–327

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lake JC, Lewisham MR (2004) Invasion success of exotic plants in natural ecosystems: the role of disturbance, plant attributes and freedom from herbivores. Biolo Conserv 117:215–226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lester PJ (2005) Determinants for the successful establishment of exotic ants in New Zealand. Divers Distrib 11:279–288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lloret F, Medial F, Brundu G, Camarda I, Moragues E, Rita J, Lambdon P, Hulme PE (2005) Species attributes and invasion success by alien plants on Mediterranean islands. J Ecol 93:512–520

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lockwood JL, Cassey P, Blackburn T (2005) The role of propagule pressure in explaining species invasions. Trends Ecol Evol 20(5):223–228

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Lodge DM (1993) Biological invasions: lessons for ecology. Trends Ecol Evol 8:133–137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lonsdale WM (1994) Inviting trouble: introduced pasture species in northern Australia. Aust J Ecol 19:345–354

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maillet J, Lopez-Garcia C (2000) What criteria are relevant for predicting the invasive capacity of a new agricultural weed? The case of invasive American species in France. Weed Res 40:11–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marchetti MP, Moyle PB, Levine R (2004) Invasive species profiling? Exploring the characteristics of non-native fishes across invasion stages in California. Freshw Biol 49:646–661

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martinez-Ghersa MA, Ghersa CM (2006) The relationship of propagule pressure to invasion potential in plants. Euphytica 148:87–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Memmott J, Craze PG, Harman M, Syrett P, Fowler SV (2005) The effect of propagule size on the invasion of an alien insect. J Anim Ecol 74:50–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller AW, Hewitt CL, Ruiz GM (2002) Invasion success: does size really matter? Ecol Lett 5:159–162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morton B (1996) The aquatic nuisance species problem: a global perspective and review. In: D’itri F (ed) Zebra mussels and other aquatic nuisance species. Ann Arbor Press, New York, USA, pp 1–54

    Google Scholar 

  • Moulton MP, Pimm SL (1986) Species introductions to Hawaii. In: Mooney HA, Drake JA (eds) Ecology of biological invasions of North America and Hawaii. Springer-Verlag, New York, USA, pp 231–249

    Google Scholar 

  • Newsome AE, Noble IR (1986) Ecological and physiological characters of invading species. In: Groves RH, Burdon JJ (eds) Ecology of biological invasions: an Australian perspective. Australian Academy of Science, Canberra, Australia, pp 1–20

    Google Scholar 

  • Noble IR (1989) Attributes of invaders and the invading process: terrestrial and vascular plants. In: Drake JA (ed) Biological invasions: a global perspective. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester, England, pp 301–313

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Connor RJ (1986) Biological characteristics of invaders among bird species in Britain. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B314:589–598

    Google Scholar 

  • Pattison RR, Goldstein G, Ares A (1998) Growth, biomass allocation and photosynthesis of invasive and native Hawaiian rainforest species. Oecologia 117:449–459

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perrins J, Williamson W, Fitter A (1992) Do annual weeds have predictable characters? Acta Ecol 13(5):517–533

    Google Scholar 

  • Pysek P (1998) Is there a taxonomic pattern to plant invasions. Oikos 82:282–294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quinn GP, Keough MJ (2002) Experimental design and data analysis for biologists. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 556 pp

  • Radford IJ, Cousens RD (2000) Invasiveness and comparative life-history traits of exotic and indigenous Senecio species in Australia. Oecologia 125:531–542

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rehage JS, Sih A (2004) Dispersal behaviour, boldness, and the link to invasiveness: a comparison of four Gambusia species. Biol Invasions 6(3):379–391

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reichard SH (2001) The search for patterns that enable prediction of invasion. In: Groves RH, Panetta FD, Virtue JG (eds) Weed risk assessment. CSIRO publishing, Canberra, Australia, pp 10–19

    Google Scholar 

  • Reichard SH, Hamilton CW (1997) Predicting invasions of woody plants introduced into North America. Conserv Biol 11:193–203

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rejmanek M (1996) A theory of seed plant invasiveness: the first sketch. Biol Conserv 78:171–181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rejmanek M, Richardson DM (1996) What attributes make some plant species more invasive? Ecology 77:1655–1661

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ricciardi A, Cohon J (2007) The invasiveness of an introduced species does not predict its impact. Biol Invasions 9:309–315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richards CL, Bossdorf O, Muth NZ, Gurevitch J, Pigliucci M (2006) Jack of all trades, master of some? One the role of phenotypic plasticity in plant invasions. Ecol Lett 9:981–993

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Richardson DM, Cowling RM, Le Maitre DC (1990) Assessing the risk of invasive success in Pinus and Banksia in South African mountain fynbos. J Veg Sci 1:629–642

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richardson DM, Pysek P (2006) Plant invasions: merging the concepts of species invasiveness and community invasibility. Prog Phys Geogr 30(3):409–431

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosecchi E, Thomas F, Crivelli AJ (2001) Can life history traits predict the fate of introduced species? A case study on two cyprinid fish in southern France. Freshw Biol 46:845–853

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roy K, Jablonski D, Valentine JW (2002) Body size and invasion success in marine bivalves. Ecol Lett 5:163–167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruesink JL, Parker IM, Groom MJ, Kareiva PM (1995) Reducing the risks of non-indigenous species introductions: guilty until proven innocent. Biosci Biotechnol Biochem 45(7):465–477

    Google Scholar 

  • Sakai AK, Allendorf FW, Holt JS, Lodge DM, Molofsky J, With KA, Baughman S, Cabin RJ, Cohen JE, Ellstrand NC, McCauley DE, O’Neil P, Parker IM, Thompson JN, Weller SG (2001) The population biology of invasive species. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 32:305–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott JK, Panetta FD (1993) Predicting the Australian weed status of southern African plants. J Biogeogr 20:87–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simons AM (2003) Invasive aliens and sampling bias. Ecol Lett 6:278–280

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sol D, Lefebvre L (2000) Behavioural flexibility predicts invasion success in birds introduced to New Zealand. Oikos 90:599–605

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sol D, Timmermans S, Lefebvre L (2002) Behavioural flexibility and invasion success in birds. Anim Behav 63:495–502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sorci G, Moller AP, Clobert J (1998) Plumage dichromatism of birds predicts introduction success in New Zealand. J Anim Ecol 67:263–269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stohlgren TJ, Schnase JL (2006) Risk analysis for biological hazards: what we need to know about invasive species. Risk Anal 26(1):163–173

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Sutherland S (2004) What makes a weed a weed: life history traits of native and exotic plants in the USA. Oecologia 141:24–39

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson K, Hodgson JG, Rich TCG (1995) Native and alien invasive plants: more of the same? Ecography 18:390–402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson K, Hodgson JG, Grime PJ, Burke MJW (2001) Plant traits and temporal scale: evidence from a 5-year invasion experiment using native species. J Ecol 89(6):1054–1060

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Belle G (2002) Statistical rules of thumb. Wiley, New York, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Veltman CJ, Nee S, Crawley MJ (1996) Correlates of introduction success in exotic New Zealand birds. Am Nat 147:542–557

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williamson MH (1993) Invaders, weeds and the risk from genetically modified organisms. Experientia 49:219–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williamson MH, Fitter A (1996) The characters of successful invaders. Biol Conserv 78:163–170

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wolf CM, Griffith B, Reed C, Temple SA (1996) Avian and mammalian translocations: update and reanalysis of 1987 survey data. Conserv Biol 10(4):1142–1154

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Piers Dunstan, Ullrika Sahlin, Nic Bax, Mary Bomford, Dave Richardson and four anonymous reviewers for comments on earlier drafts of this article.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia

    Keith R. Hayes

  2. CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences, GPO Box 664, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

    Simon C. Barry

Authors
  1. Keith R. Hayes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Simon C. Barry
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Keith R. Hayes.

 

 

Appendix 1 Biological groups, transition step, statistical method, sample size, introduction mode and control class in 49 biological invasion studies
Full size table
Appendix 2 Number of studies where establishment success/failure is reported as positively (+), negatively (−) or not significantly (NS) associated with event- and location-level characteristics in at least two independent data sets
Full size table
Appendix 3 Number of studies where establishment success/failure is reported as positively (+), negatively (−) or not significantly (NS) associated with species-level characteristics in at least two independent data sets for: (a) birds; (b) finfish; (c) insects; (d) mammals; (e) plants; (f) reptiles/amphibians; and, (g) shellfish
Full size table
Appendix 4 Number of studies where invasion success/failure is reported as positively (+), negatively (−) or not significantly (NS) associated with event- and location-level characteristics in at least two independent data sets
Full size table
Appendix 5 Number of studies where invasion success/failure is reported as positively (+), negatively (−) or not significantly (NS) associated with species-level characteristics in at least two independent data sets for: (a) birds; (b) finfish; (c) mammals; (d) shellfish; and, (e) plants
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hayes, K.R., Barry, S.C. Are there any consistent predictors of invasion success?. Biol Invasions 10, 483–506 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-007-9146-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-007-9146-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation