Skip to main content
Log in

Theoretical estimation of maximum human lifespan

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Biogerontology Aims and scope Submit manuscript


The existence of maximum human lifespan remains a puzzle in aging research. Maximum human lifespan is believed to be around 125 years, whereas current demographic trends seem to show no limitation. To reconcile this contrast, the estimation of maximum human lifespan requires an adequate mathematical model. However, sparse data of available old-age mortality pattern make the estimation impossible. Here we suggest an extended Weibull model for the estimation using a proper mathematical method based on survival probability pattern. We find a tendency that survival probability is maximized in modern human survival curves. Based on such tendency, we develop an estimation method for maximum human lifespan and indeed obtain about 126 years from periodic life tables for Swedish female between 1950 and 2005. Despite uncertainty from available mortality data, our approach may offer quantitative biodemographic opportunities linking aging and survival kinetics.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others


Download references


We are grateful to the Human Mortality Database ( for allowing anyone to access the demographic data for research. This work was supported by the Creative Research Initiatives (Functional X-ray Imaging) of MOST/KOSEF.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations


Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jung Ho Je.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Weon, B.M., Je, J.H. Theoretical estimation of maximum human lifespan. Biogerontology 10, 65–71 (2009).

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: