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Regional physics-based simulation of ground motion within the Rhȏne Valley, France, during the MW 4.9 2019 Le Teil earthquake

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Abstract

In this paper we introduce the 3D physics-based numerical simulations (PBS) of ground motion during the Nov 11, 2019, MW 4.9 Le Teil earthquake, which occurred in a low-to-moderate seismicity area in the South-East of France, within the Rhône river valley, which hosts several operating nuclear installations. The numerical code SPEED, developed at Politecnico di Milano, Italy, was used to produce the PBS. After introducing the criteria to construct the numerical model, based on the relatively limited data available, a numerical convergence test was made to identify the frequency range for accurate simulations. Furthermore, the performance of the numerical results against the available strong motion records was assessed quantitatively using Goodness-of-fit (GoF) measures. According to the GoF scores, a good-to-excellent agreement was found on the horizontal components up to 8 Hz, showing that, even without a very detailed 3D numerical model of the medium, that would imply detailed knowledge of the basin shape, of the bedrock-to-basin impedance ratio, as well as of the damping ratio in the basin and its dependence on frequency, the PBS may provide realistic broadband predictions of earthquake ground motion. Nevertheless, as shown by the poorer performance on the vertical component, the high-frequency limitations of PBS, also in relation to the energy radiated by the kinematic source model, is still an issue to be carefully addressed. In spite of these limitations, the results obtained in this work demonstrate that PBS, if suitably calibrated and validated, can be either an alternative or a useful complement to empirical ground motion models, especially in those cases where the region- and site-specific features of ground shaking, including near-source conditions, are typically not accounted for by ergodic empirical models, such as for the seismic risk evaluation of large urban areas and/or of strategic structures, infrastructures and industrial plants.

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Data Availability

The SPEED code is available at http://speed.mox.polimi.it. The simulations and data generated during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by swissnuclear as part of the research activity “Development of advanced numerical approaches for earthquake ground motion prediction”, developed in the framework of the SIGMA-2 project. The authors acknowledge the contribution given by Ilario Mazzieri in deriving the 3D basin shape model. Authors are grateful to Gabriele Ameri and another anonymous reviewer, the detailed remarks of which improved considerably the revised version of this work.

Funding

The work has been funded by swissnuclear within the 2017–2022 research project “Development of advanced numerical approaches for earthquake ground motion prediction”.

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Author notes

  1. P. Renault

    Present address: SDA-engineering GmbH, Herzogenrath, Germany

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy

    C. Smerzini, M. Vanini & R. Paolucci

  2. Swissnuclear, Olten, Switzerland

    P. Renault

  3. Électricité de France, Aix-en-Provence, France

    P. Traversa

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  1. C. Smerzini
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  2. M. Vanini
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Correspondence to C. Smerzini.

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Smerzini, C., Vanini, M., Paolucci, R. et al. Regional physics-based simulation of ground motion within the Rhȏne Valley, France, during the MW 4.9 2019 Le Teil earthquake. Bull Earthquake Eng 21, 1747–1774 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01591-w

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