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New seismic exposure modeling approach for Guatemala City

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Abstract

This study presents the analysis of the methodology of a seismic exposure model in Guatemala City. In the last years, progress in the investigation of regional seismic hazards has revealed the need to study the vulnerability of buildings in Central America. In addition, in recent years there have been earthquakes of moderate magnitude in Guatemala causing damage in some areas of the country. An accurate exposure model and updated threat scenarios are essential for a detailed vulnerability study. This exposure study for Guatemala City reveals the presence of structural typologies that are very vulnerable to earthquakes: adobe and simple masonry. Similarly, the study reveals the majority presence of reinforced masonry and the growing construction of reinforced concrete buildings. The characteristic of this model is the use of historical aerial photographs of Guatemala City to determine the relationship between constructive typologies. The lack of exposure studies in the country has prevented the creation of policies to reduce vulnerability to a catastrophe like the earthquake in 1976. The analysis and methodology presented in this study are the preliminary step in formulating seismic risk prevention and mitigation plans in Guatemala City; knowledge of the city’s exposure contributes to making subsequent actions more effective. Based on the results obtained, matrices are proposed according to the age and material of the buildings for the typological classification of the structures.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the National Institute for Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology, and Hydrology of Guatemala (INSIVUMEH). Thanks also to other people who contributed to our work in Guatemala City in particular: Carlos Gamboa (CESEM), Carla Gordillo (CESEM), Enrique Molina (URL) and José Carlos Gil (URL). Finally, we want to thank the comments of M. Belen Benito and H. Monzón Despag that helped to improve this paper. This study has been carried out with the support of the Kuk Aphán Project (RTI2018-094,827-B-C21/C22) funded by MCIN/AEI/10.1303 9/501100011033 and, if applicable, by “FEDER A way to do Europe”.

Funding

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript. The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Architecture, University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain

    L. D. Dávila & J. M. Cabrero

  2. Center for Higher Studies in Energy and Mines – CESEM, School of Engineering, University of San Carlos of Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala

    O. Flores

Authors
  1. L. D. Dávila
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  2. J. M. Cabrero
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  3. O. Flores
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by L.D. Dávila, and J.M. Cabrero and O. Flores. The first draft of the manuscript was written by L.D. Dávila and all authors commented on the previous version of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to L. D. Dávila.

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Dávila, L.D., Cabrero, J.M. & Flores, O. New seismic exposure modeling approach for Guatemala City. Bull Earthquake Eng 21, 739–766 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01570-1

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