Abstract
We present a seismic source characterization model for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of the Isfahan urban area, Iran. We compiled the required datasets including the earthquake catalogue and the geological and seismotectonic structure and faults systems within the study region to delineate and characterize seismic source models. We identified 7 relatively large zones that bound each region with similar seismotectonic characteristics and catalogue completeness periods. These regions were used for calculating the b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude recurrence relationship and for estimating the maximum magnitude value within each region. The earthquake recurrence parameters were then used to build a spatially varying distributed earthquake rate model using a smoothed kernel. Additionally, based on a fault database developed in this study and on a local expert’s opinion supported by tenable constraints about their slip velocity, a fault-based model is also created. We further performed sets of sensitivity analyses to find stable estimates of the ground motion intensity and to define alternative branches for both the seismogenic source and ground motion prediction models. Site amplification is considered based on a Vs30 map for Isfahan compiled within this study. The alternative source and ground motion prediction models considered in the logic tree are then implemented in the software OpenQuake to generate hazard maps and uniform hazard spectra for return periods of interest. Finally, we provide a detailed comparison of these PSHA outcomes with both those presented in the 2014 Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME14) and with the national seismic design spectrum to further discuss the discrepancies between hazard estimates from site-specific and regional PSHA studies.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
adapted from Safaei et al. (2012). According to this map, the study area is mostly located in the North Sanandaj–Sirjan zone, in the South Sanadaj–Sirjan and partially in the high Zagros belt, Zagros simply folded belt, Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic assemblage and Central Iran. Note: The red circle indicates 200 km distance from Isfahan; b Geotechnical setting of Isfahan showing the boundaries of the soil types, topography, and the location and type of the available geotechnical test data. Note: Panel b also shows the extents of 15 municipal districts of Isfahan
source zonation of Isfahan with the catalogue showing the spatial distribution of the events in terms of: a event moment magnitudes; and b hypo-central depth. Note: The fault traces and fault mechanisms are also shown on the maps. Z7 is a deep seismic zone delineated by dashed lines and it lies within Z2
source model. The total number of data points (N) in each plot is reported above the panel
source model parameters used in the PSHA. Note: Mmax for the Distributed (in-buffer) model corresponds to the Mthre of the Fault model
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program.
Earthquake Model of Middle East.
References
Abdolahi M, Jafarian M, Goodarzi G, Pirhadi G, Partoazar H (2014) Geology map reports for Isfahan-Felavarjan. Zamin Danesh Pars Engineering Consultants, Tehran
Abrahamson NA, Bommer JJ (2005) Probability and uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis. Earthq Spectra 21:603–607. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1899158
Abrahamson N, Silva W (2008) Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva NGA ground-motion relations. Earthq Spectra 24:67–97. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2924360
Abrahamson NA, Silva WJ, Kamai R (2014) Summary of the ASK14 ground motion relation for active crustal regions. Earthq Spectra 30:1025–1055. https://doi.org/10.1193/070913eqs198m
Ajalloeian R, Jami N (2010) Evaluation of engineering geology of Isfahan quaternary deposits using Isfahan geotechnical data bank. Journal of science, Kharazmi University. Available from: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=415369
Akkar S, Cagnan Z (2010) A local ground-motion predictive model for Turkey, and its comparison with other regional and global ground-motion models. Bull Seismol Soc Am 100:2978–2995. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090367
Akkar S, Sandıkkaya MA, Bommer JJ (2014) Empirical ground-motion models for point- and extended-source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe and the middle east. Bull Earthq Eng 12:359–387. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4
Alavi M (1994) Tectonics of the Zagros orogenic belt of Iran: new data and interpretations. Tectonophysics 229:211–238. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(94)90030-2
Alipoor R, Zare M, Ghassemi M (2012) Inception of activity and slip rate on the main recent fault of Zagros mountains, Iran. Geomorphology 175–176:86–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2012.06.025
Allen T (2020) Seismic hazard estiation in stable continental regions: Does PSHA meet the needs for modern engineering in Australia? Bull N Z Soc Earthq Eng 53:22–36. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.53.1.22-36
Álvarez Rubio S, Kästli P, Fäh D, Sellami S, Giardini D (2011) Parameterization of historical earthquakes in Switzerland. J Seismol 16:1–24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-011-9245-8
Ambraseys NN, Melville CP (1982) A history of Persian earthquakes. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Arian M (2015) Seismotectonic-geologic hazards zoning of Iran. Earth Sci Res J 19:7–13
ASCE7 (2016) Minimum design loads for buildings and other structures. Reston, VA
Atkinson G, Boore D (2007) Earthquake ground-motion prediction equations for eastern North America. Bull Seismol Soc Am 96:2181–2205. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050245
Atkinson GM, Boore DM (2011) Modifications to existing ground-motion prediction equations in light of new data. Bull Seismol Soc Am 101:1121–1135. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120100270
Atkinson G, Worden C, Wald DJ (2014a) Intensity prediction equations for North America. Bull Seismol Soc Am 104:3084–3093. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140178
Atkinson GM, Bommer JJ, Abrahamson NA (2014b) Alternative approaches to modeling epistemic uncertainty in ground motions in probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis. Seismol Res Lett 85:1141–1144. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220140120
Baker J, Cornell C (2006) Spectral shape, epsilon and record selection. Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 35:1077–1095
Bazzurro P, Cornell C (1999) Disaggregation of seismic hazard. Bull Seismol Soc Am 89:501–529
Bazzurro P, Cornell CA (2004) Nonlinear soil-site effects in probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis. Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:2110–2123
Beauval C, Bard P-Y, Danciu L (2020) The influence of source- and ground-motion model choices on probabilistic seismic hazard levels at 6 sites in France. Bull Earthq Eng 18:4551–4580. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00879-z
Berberian M (1979) Earthquake faulting and bedding thrust associated with the Tabas-e-Golshan (Iran) earthquake of September 16, 1978. Bull Seismol Soc Am 69:1861–1887
Berberian M (2005) The 2003 bam urban earthquake: a predictable seismotectonic pattern along the western margin of the rigid lut block southeast Iran. Earthq Spectra 21:35–99. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2127909
Berberian M, King G (1981) Toward a pale geography and tectonic evolution of Iran. Can J Earth Sci 18:210–265. https://doi.org/10.1139/e81-019
Beygi S, Nadimi A, Safaei H (2016) Tectonic history of seismogenic fault structures in Central Iran. J Geosci 61:127–144
Bommer J, Crowley H (2017) The purpose and definition of the minimum magnitude limit in PSHA calculations. Seismol Res Lett 88:1097–1106. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170015
Boore DM, Stewart JP, Seyhan E, Atkinson GM (2014) NGA-west2 equations for predicting PGA, PGV, and 5% damped PSA for shallow crustal earthquakes. Earthq Spectra 30:1057–1085. https://doi.org/10.1193/070113eqs184m
Budnitz R, Apostolakis G, Boore D, Cluff L, Coppersmith K, Cornell C, Morris P (1997) Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: guidance on uncertainty and use of experts: main report, NUREG/CR-6372 and UCRL-ID-122160, vol 1
Calais E, Camelbeeck T, Stein S, Liu M, Craig TJ (2016) A new paradigm for large earthquakes in stable continental plate interiors. Geophys Res Lett 43:10621–610637. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070815
Campbell KW, Bozorgnia Y (2014) NGA-west2 ground motion model for the average horizontal components of PGA, PGV, and 5% damped linear acceleration response spectra. Earthq Spectra 30:1087–1115. https://doi.org/10.1193/062913eqs175m
Cauzzi C, Faccioli E, Vanini M, Bianchini A (2015) Updated predictive equations for broadband (0.01–10 s) horizontal response spectra and peak ground motions, based on a global dataset of digital acceleration records. Bull Earthq Eng 13:1587–1612. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-014-9685-y
Chavideh M, Tabatabaei Manesh SM (2021) Tectonic setting, emplacement and petrological characteristics of the Qazan granitoids: evidence for the neo-tethyan subduction, urumieh−dokhtar magmatic arc Iran. Geotectonics 55:584. https://doi.org/10.1134/s001685212104004x
Chiou B-J, Youngs RR (2008) An NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra. Earthq Spectra 24:173–215. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2894832
Chiou BS-J, Youngs RR (2014) Update of the Chiou and Youngs nga model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra. Earthq Spectra 30:1117–1153. https://doi.org/10.1193/072813eqs219m
Cornell CA (1968) Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull Seismol Soc Am 58:1583–1606
Craig T, Calais E, Fleitout L, Bollinger L, Scotti O (2016) Evidence for the release of long-term tectonic strain stored in continental interiors through intraplate earthquakes. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069359
Crone A, Machette M, Bowman J (1997) Episodic nature of earthquake activity in stable continental regions revealed by paleoseismicity studies of Australian and north American quaternary faults. Aust J Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.1080/08120099708728304
Crowley H, Bommer JJ, Pinho R, Bird J (2005) The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model. Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 34:1653–1685
Danciu L, Kale Ö, Akkar S (2016) The 2014 earthquake model of the middle east: ground motion model and uncertainties. Bull Earthq Eng. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-9989-1
Danciu L et al (2017) The 2014 earthquake model of the middle east: seismogenic sources. Bull Earthq Eng. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0096-8
Danciu L et al (2021) The 2020 update of the European seismic hazard model: model overview. EFEHR Tech Rep 001:v1.0.0. https://doi.org/10.12686/a15
Darzi A, Zolfaghari MR, Cauzzi C, Fäh D (2019) An empirical ground-motion model for horizontal PGV, PGA, and 5% damped elastic response spectra (0.01–10 s) in Iran. Bull Seismol Soc Am 109:1041–1057. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180196
Delavaud E et al (2012) Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe. J Seismol 16:451–473. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-012-9281-z
Douglas J, Edwards B (2016) Recent and future developments in earthquake ground motion estimation. Earth Sci Rev 160:203–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.07.005
Douglas J (2018) Capturing geographically-varying uncertainty in earthquake ground motion models or what we think we know may change. In: Pitilakis K (ed) Recent advances in earthquake engineering in Europe: 16th European conference on earthquake engineering-Thessaloniki 2018, Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp 153–181. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75741-4_6
Dziewonski AM, Anderson DL (1981) Preliminary reference earth model. Phys Earth Planet Inter 25:297–356. https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-9201(81)90046-7
Ebrahimian H et al (2019) Site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the western area of Naples, Italy. Bull Earthq Eng 17:4743–4796. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-019-00678-1
Eftekharnejad J (1981) Tectonic division of Iran with respect to sedimentary basins. J Iran Pet Soc 82:19–28
Fallah Tafti M, Amini Hosseini K, Firouzi E, Mansouri B, Ansari A (2017) Ranking of GMPEs for seismic hazard analysis in Iran using LH, LLH and EDR approaches. J Seismol Earthq Eng 19:139–161
Farajpour Z, Pezeshk S, Zare M (2019) A new empirical ground-motion model for Iran. Bull Seismol Soc Am. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180139
Farajpour Z, Kowsari M, Pezeshk S, Halldorsson B (2020) Ranking of ground-motion models (GMMs) for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Iran based on an independent data set. Bull Seismol Soc Am. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200052
Farashi S, Ajalloeian R (2012) Engineering geological mapping at east of Isfahan city using GIS. Aust J Basic Appl Sci 6:165–172
Feng W et al (2018) Geodetic constraints of the 2017 Mw7.3 Sarpol Zahab, Iran earthquake, and its implications on the structure and mechanics of the northwest Zagros thrust-fold belt. Geophys Res Lett 45:6853–6861. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078577
Field E, Jordan T, Cornell CA (2003) OpenSHA: a developing community-modeling environment for seismic hazard analysis. Seismol Res Lett 74:406
Fossen H (2010) Structural geology, 1st edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Frankel A (1995) Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States. Seismol Res Lett 66:8–21. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.66.4.8
Gardner J, Knopoff L (1974) Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern California, with aftershocks removed poissonian. Bull Seismol Soc Am 64:1363–1367
Ghasemi A, Talbot CJ (2006) A new tectonic scenario for the Sanandaj–Sirjan zone (Iran). J Asian Earth Sci 26:683–693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2005.01.003
Ghasemi H, Zare M, Fukushima Y, Koketsu K (2009) An empirical spectral ground-motion model for Iran. J Seismol 13:499–515. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-008-9143-x
Giardini D (1999) The global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP). Terra Nova. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3780
Goulet C, Bozorgnia Y, Abrahamson N, Kuehn N, Al Atik L, Youngs R, Graves R (2018) Central and eastern North America ground-motion characterization-NGA-east final report. University of California, Berkeley
Gregor N, Addo K (2015) BC hydro ground motion prediction equations for subduction earthquakes. Earthq Spectra 32:150202104017001. https://doi.org/10.1193/051712EQS188MR
Hanks TC, Kanamori H (1979) A moment magnitude scale. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 84:2348–2350. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB084iB05p02348
Hassanpour J, Jahani S, Ghassemi M, Alavi A, Zeinali F (2018) Evolution of the karebas fault system and adjacent folds, central Zagros fold-and-thrust belt, Iran: role of pre-existing halokinesis (salt structures and minibasins) and detachment levels. J Asian Earth Sci 164:125–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2018.06.024
Hofmann RB (1996) Individual faults can’t produce a Gutenberg–Richter earthquake recurrence. Eng Geol 43:5–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/0013-7952(95)00085-2
ICSRDB (2014) Iranian code of practice for earthquake resistant design of buildings (Standard 2800), 4th edn. Building and housing research center of Iran (PN S 253)
Jackson J, Haines J, Holt W (1995) The accommodation of Arabia-Eurasia plate convergence in Iran. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 100:15205–15219. https://doi.org/10.1029/95JB01294
Jamali F, Hessami K (2011) Active tectonics and strain partitioning along dextral fault system in central Iran: analysis of geomorphological observations and geophysical data in the Kashan region. J Asian Earth Sci 40:1015–1025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2010.05.013
Johnston A, Kanter L, Coppersmith K, Cornell C (1994) The earthquakes of stable continental regions EPRI TR-102261. In: Schneider JF (ed) Final proprietary report for the electric power research institute, vol 5. Palo Alto, California
Kaklamanos J, Baise L, Boore D (2011) Estimating unknown input parameters when implementing the NGA ground-motion prediction equations in engineering practice. Earthq Spectra 27:1219–1235. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.3650372
Kalaneh S, Agh-Atabai M (2016) Spatial variation of earthquake hazard parameters in the Zagros fold and thrust belt SW Iran. Nat Hazards 82:933–946. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2227-y
Kale Ö, Akkar S (2013) A new procedure for selecting and ranking ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs): the euclidean distance-based ranking (EDR) method. Bull Seismol Soc Am 103:1069–1084. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120134
Kale Ö, Akkar S, Ansari A, Hamzehloo H (2015) A ground-motion predictive model for Iran and Turkey for horizontal PGA, PGV, and 5% damped response spectrum: investigation of possible regional effects. Bull Seismol Soc Am 105:963–980. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140134
Karasozen E, Nissen E, Bergman E, Ghods A (2018) A bias-free seismicity catalog for the entire Zagros (Iran) orogeny. AGU Fall Meet Abstr 2018:T51G-0253
Karasözen E, Nissen E, Bergman EA, Ghods A (2019) Seismotectonics of the Zagros (Iran) from orogen-wide, calibrated earthquake relocations. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 124:9109–9129. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB017336
Khodaverdian A, Zafarani H, Rahimain M (2015) Long term fault slip rates, distributed deformation rates and forecast of seismicity in the Iranian plateau. Tectonics. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014TC003796
Kijko A (2004) Estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude, m max. Pure Appl Geophys 161:1655–1681. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-004-2531-4
Kohrangi M, Danciu L, Bazzurro P (2018) Comparison between outcomes of the 2014 earthquake hazard model of the middle east (EMME14) and national seismic design codes: the case of Iran. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 114:348–361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2018.07.022
Leonard M (2010) Earthquake fault scaling: self-consistent relating of rupture length, width, average displacement, and moment release. Bull Seismol Soc Am 100:1971–1988. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090189
McGuire RK (2004) Seismic hazard and risk analysis. Earthquake engineering research institute. https://www.amazon.com/Analysis-Engineering-monographs-earthquake-structural/dp/0943198011
McQuarrie N (2004) Crustal scale geometry of the Zagros fold–thrust belt Iran. J Struct Geol 26:519–535. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2003.08.009
Mignan A, Danciu L, Giardini D (2015) Reassessment of the maximum fault rupture length of strike-slip earthquakes and inference on Mmax in the Anatolian Peninsula Turkey. Seismol Res Lett 86:890–900. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220140252
Mohajjel M, Fergusson CL (2000) Dextral transpression in late cretaceous continental collision, Sanandaj–Sirjan zone, western Iran. J Struct Geol 22:1125–1139. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-8141(00)00023-7
Mohammadi M, Fatemi Aghda SM, Talkhablou M, Cheshomi A (2020) The subsurface development and geological and geotechnical characteristics of coarse-grained sediments of Zayandeh rood river in Isfahan city. J Geosci 30:231–242. https://doi.org/10.22071/gsj.2020.208126.1720
Montalva GA, Bastías N, Rodriguez-Marek A (2017) Ground-motion prediction equation for the Chilean subduction zone. Bull Seismol Soc Am 107:901–911. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160221
Mousavi M, Ansari A, Zafarani H, Azarbakht A (2012) Selection of ground motion prediction models for seismic hazard analysis in the Zagros region Iran. J Earthq Eng. https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2012.685568
Nogole-Sadat M, Almasian M (1993) Tectonic map of Iran, scale 1:1,000,000. Geological Survey of Iran, Tehran
Oveisi B, Sabour N, Sadeghi M, Heibati Z (2019) Seismotectonic map of Iran (GIS-Ready). https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.34188.26248
Pagani M et al (2014) Openquake engine: an open hazard (and risk) software for the global earthquake model. Seismol Res Lett 85:692–702
Papadopoulos G, Baskoutas I, Fokaefs A (2014) Historical seismicity of the kyparissiakos gulf, western peloponnese Greece. Bollettino Di Geofisica Teorica Ed Appl 55:389–404. https://doi.org/10.4430/bgta0096
Pezeshk S, Zandieh A, Tavakoli B (2011) Hybrid empirical ground-motion prediction equations for eastern North America using NGA models and updated seismological parameters. Bull Seismol Soc Am 101:1859–1870. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120100144
Poggi V, Garcia-Peláez J, Styron R, Pagani M, Gee R (2020) A probabilistic seismic hazard model for North Africa. Bull Earthq Eng 18:2917–2951. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00820-4
Reiter L (1992) Earthquake hazard analysis: issues and insights. Surv Geophys 13:297–298. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02125772
Rodriguez-Marek A, Rathje EM, Bommer JJ, Scherbaum F, Stafford PJ (2014) Application of single-station sigma and site-response characterization in a probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis for a new nuclear site. Bull Seismol Soc Am 104:1601–1619. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130196
Sabetta F, Lucantoni A, Bungum H, Bommer JJ (2005) Sensitivity of PSHA results to ground motion prediction relations and logic-tree weights. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 25:317–329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2005.02.002
Safaei H (2009) The continuation of the Kazerun fault system across the Sanandaj–Sirjan zone (Iran). J Asian Earth Sci 35:391–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2009.01.007
Safaei H, Tabatabaeimanesh SM, Hashemi SN, Mirlohi AS, Vafa H (2012) Structural and petrological evidence for the continuation of the Isfahan fault system across the Urumieh–Dokhtar zone of central Iran. Geotectonics 46:455–471. https://doi.org/10.1134/s0016852112060064
Safaei H (2013) Introducing the fault causing the 20 April 2013 earthquake in Isfahan with a magnitude of 4.1. Disaster management organization, Isfahan (in Persian)
Scasserra G, Stewart JP, Bazzurro P, Lanzo G, Mollaioli F (2009) A comparison of NGA ground-motion prediction equations to Italian data. Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:2961–2978. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120080133
Scordilis EM (2006) Empirical global relations converting MS and mb to moment magnitude. J Seismol 10:225–236. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-006-9012-4
Sedaghati F, Pezeshk S (2017) Partially nonergodic empirical ground-motion models for predicting horizontal and vertical PGV, PGA, and 5% damped linear acceleration response spectra using data from the Iranian plateau. Bull Seismol Soc Am 107:934–948. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160205
Şengör AMC (1990) A new model for the late Palaeozoic—Mesozoic tectonic evolution of Iran and implications for Oman. Geol Soc Lond Spec Publ 49:797–831. https://doi.org/10.1144/gsl.sp.1992.049.01.49
Sepehr M, Cosgrove J (2004) Structural framework of the Zagros fold-thrust belt Iran. Mar Pet Geol 21:829–843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2003.07.006
Şeşetyan K et al (2018) The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results. Bull Earthq Eng. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0346-4
Shahjouei A, Pezeshk S (2016) Alternative hybrid empirical ground-motion model for central and eastern North America using hybrid simulations and NGA-West2 models. Bull Seismol Soc Am. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140367
Sonley E, Atkinson G (2005) Empirical relationship between moment magnitude and nuttli magnitude for small-magnitude earthquakes in southeastern Canada. Seismol Res Lett 76:752–755. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.76.6.752
Stepp J (1972) Analysis of completeness of the earthquake sample in the puget sound area and its effect on statistical estimates of earthquake hazard. In: Proceedings of the international conference on microzonation. pp 897–910
Tabaei M, Mehdizadeh R, Esmaeili M (2016) Stratigraphical evidences of the Qom–Zefreh fault system activity central Iran. J Tethys 4:18–26
Tajmir Riahi Z, Ajalloeian R, Rahgozar MA, Safaei H (2014) Earthquake hazard zonation of the Isfahan City Iran. J Geotech Eng 19:7141–7163
Talebian M, Jackson J (2004) A reappraisal of earthquake focal mechanisms and active shortening in the Zagros mountains of Iran. Geophys J Int 156:506–526. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2004.02092.x
Vilanova S et al (2014) Incorporating descriptive metadata into seismic source zone models for seismic-hazard assessment: a case study of the Azores–West Iberian region. Bull Seismol Soc Am 104:1212–1229. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130210
Wald DJ, Allen TI (2007) Topographic slope as a proxy for seismic site conditions and amplification. Bull Seismol Soc Am 97:1379–1395. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120060267
Walpersdorf A et al (2014) Present-day kinematics and fault slip rates in eastern Iran, derived from 11 years of GPS data. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 119:1359–1383. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JB010620
Weatherill G, Kotha SR, Cotton F (2020) A regionally-adaptable “scaled backbone” ground motion logic tree for shallow seismicity in Europe: application to the European seismic hazard model. Bull Earthq Eng 18:5087–5117. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00899-9
Weichert DH (1980) Estimation of the earthquake recurrence parameters for unequal observation periods for different magnitudes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 70:1337–1346
Wells D, Coppersmith K (1994) New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84:974–1002
Wesnousky SG, Scholz CH, Shimazaki K, Matsuda T (1983) Earthquake frequency distribution and the mechanics of faulting. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 88:9331–9340. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB088iB11p09331
Wheeler R (2011) Reassessment of stable continental regions of southeast Asia. Seismol Res Lett 82:971–983
Youngs R, Coppersmith K (1986) Implications of fault slip rates and earthquake recurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci Geomech Abstr 23:125–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(86)90651-0
Zafarani H, Mousavi M (2014) Applicability of different ground-motion prediction models for northern Iran. Nat Hazards 73:1199–1228. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1151-2
Zafarani H, Luzi L, Lanzano G, Soghrat MR (2018) Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations using Iranian strong-motion data. J Seismol 22:263–285. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-017-9704-y
Zare M et al (2014) Recent developments of the middle east catalog. J Seismol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-014-9444-1
Zhao JX et al (2006) Attenuation relations of strong ground motion in Japan using site classification based on predominant period. Bull Seismol Soc Am 96:898–913. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050122
Zöller G, Holschneider M, Hainzl S (2013) The maximum earthquake magnitude in a time horizon: theory and case studies. Bull Seismol Soc Am 103:860–875. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120013
Acknowledgements
Our work was partially supported by Project “Seismic micro-zonation of Isfahan urban area” funded by the municipality of Isfahan under contract number 98/8059. This support is gratefully acknowledged. Any opinions and findings expressed in this manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsor. We thank the Isfahan Urban railway organization, Minister of roads and urban development of Isfahan as well as Isfahan construction engineering organization for providing us with the geotechnical reports for Isfahan used in generation of the hybrid Vs30 map. The first author is thankful to Dr. Hamid Zafarani for fruitful discussions regarding the technical aspects of the model. We acknowledge the technical supports of Dr. Somayeh Farashi, Eng. Nasrin Jami and Dr. Mojtaba Heidari from Isfahan Department of geology for their help in generation of the Vs30 database that was used to develop the Vs30 map. Finally, we really appreciate the useful comments from Dr. Valerio Poggi and two anonymous reviewers whose contributions helped further improve and clarify the paper.
Funding
Municipality of Isfahan, contract number 98/8059, Mohsen Kohrangi
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors have not disclosed any conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Mohsen Kohrangi: Formerly at University School for Advanced Studies IUSS Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kohrangi, M., Safaei, H., Danciu, L. et al. Site specific probabilistic seismic hazard model for Isfahan, Iran: estimates and uncertainties. Bull Earthquake Eng 20, 3623–3657 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01373-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01373-4