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Seismic risk and loss estimation for the building stock in Isfahan. Part I: exposure and vulnerability

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This paper focuses on the exposure and fragility/vulnerability of the residential, mixed residential/commercial, and public building stock of the city of Isfahan, in Central Iran, and constitutes the first part of a seismic risk assessment study for that city. To determine the assets at risk, we first summarize the details of the building stock and population from the available georeferenced 2011 Census data. From this dataset and from a local survey of the city, we categorize the building taxonomy in 27 construction classes characterized by age, height, and material/lateral-load-resisting system. A building exposure model is then assembled by first dividing Isfahan in city blocks and then by assigning the appropriate statistical properties to the buildings, such as construction class, built area, and replacement cost. The population of each city block is also estimated and accounted for. To assess the fragility and vulnerability to earthquake ground motion, for each building class we performed nonlinear dynamic analysis of multiple equivalent single-degree-of-freedom systems. This process generated a set of class- and region-specific fragility and vulnerability functions that considered both record-to-record and building-to-building response variability. In the companion paper we used the exposure model and the fragility and vulnerability curves generated for all these asset classes to probabilistically assess the seismic risk of Isfahan.

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adapted from Standard 2800, version 4 (> 2012) that shows the reference PGA on rock with values of 0.35, 0.30, 0.25, 0.20 g corresponding to “Very High”, “High”, “Moderate” and “Low” seismic zones; b evolution of the seismic design spectrum for Isfahan for a hypothetic site located on rock

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We thank Dr. Hossein Tajmir Riahi for his kind help and insightful suggestions in the process of exploring the building stock data for Isfahan. We also thank the Municipality of Isfahan and the related sectors of Isfahan Municipality ICT Organization and Urban Development and Architecture Assistance for providing the GIS-based data of 2011 Census to be used within the scope of this study. Finally, we thank the associate editor and three anonymous reviewers whose comments and suggestions significantly increased the quality and the clarity of this manuscript.


The first author is grateful for the financial support provided by the Iranian National Elites Foundation and by the Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia. Additional financial support has been provided by the Executive Agency for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (EASME) under the powers delegated by the European Commission through the Horizon 2020 program “HYPERION- Development of a decision support system for improved resilience & sustainable reconstruction of historic areas to cope with climate change & extreme events based on novel sensors and modelling tools”, Grant Agreement number 821054.

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Correspondence to Mohsen Kohrangi.

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Mohsen Kohrangi: Formerly at: Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia, Pavia, Italy.

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Kohrangi, M., Bazzurro, P. & Vamvatsikos, D. Seismic risk and loss estimation for the building stock in Isfahan. Part I: exposure and vulnerability. Bull Earthquake Eng 19, 1709–1737 (2021).

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