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Toward confident regional seismic risk assessment of spatially distributed structural portfolios via entropy-based intensity measure selection

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Abstract

Intensity measure (IM) selection is a crucial step in regional seismic risk assessment (RSRA) of spatially distributed structural portfolios. In order to facilitate more confident regional seismic risk estimates, this study proposes an entropy-based IM selection methodology, offering the first systematic and quantitative regional-level IM selection approach. By conceptualizing the spatially distributed structural portfolio as an integrated multi-response structural system, the joint entropy of the system’s unconditional seismic demands is leveraged as an IM evaluation criterion. Owing to the adaptation of a newly developed advanced IM co-simulation method and multivariate surrogate demand modeling techniques, this entropy-based IM selection approach is able to holistically incorporate uncertainties rising from the spatial IM random field, structural parameters, and surrogate demand models, during the course of uncertainty propagation in RSRA. The efficacy of the proposed methodology is demonstrated along with practical heuristics for alleviating the computational burden, based on a hypothetical highway bridge portfolio. Different application cases in the context of RSRA are considered, including pre-event RSRA considering a single scenario-earthquake as well as a stochastic earthquake catalog, and post-event RSRA considering record updating. The results consistently highlight the significance of the proposed IM selection method in facilitating more confident regional seismic risk estimates. Moreover, this study also provides valuable insights into record updating in reducing the level of uncertainty of the spatial IM random field, and its implication on IM selection in post-event RSRA.

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Acknowledgements

The review comments and suggestions by two anonymous reviewers, which further helped improve the quality of this manuscript, are appreciated. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support for this research by the National Science Foundation (NSF) through Grants CMMI-1462177. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. The authors would also like to acknowledge the computational facilities provided by the DesignSafe Cyberinfrastructure under NSF Grant CMMI-1520817.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, 78249, USA

    Ao Du

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice University, Houston, TX, 77005, USA

    Jamie E. Padgett

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  1. Ao Du
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  2. Jamie E. Padgett
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Correspondence to Jamie E. Padgett.

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Du, A., Padgett, J.E. Toward confident regional seismic risk assessment of spatially distributed structural portfolios via entropy-based intensity measure selection. Bull Earthquake Eng 18, 6283–6311 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00948-3

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