Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

, Volume 17, Issue 9, pp 4909–4936 | Cite as

Predictive model for seismic vulnerability assessment of churches based on the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake

  • Gianfranco De MatteisEmail author
  • Giuseppe Brando
  • Valentina Corlito
Original Research


Seismic events that struck Italy in the last years had a dramatic impact on historical and cultural heritage. Damage occurred on existing masonry buildings, in particular on churches, stressed out the need to better understand the seismic behaviour of this type of constructions as well as to define more appropriate mitigation strategies to be applied at large scale. This study deals with a predictive methodology for vulnerability assessment of churches in large territorial areas. Focusing the attention on three naves churches of Abruzzi, the paper proposes modifications and integrations of an existing methodology taken by literature. These modifications are defined through a calibration procedure based on damage observation of 64 three naves churches located at different distances from the epicentre of the 2009 earthquake. The proposed model is employed to predict damage level distribution for different earthquake intensities, allowing fragility curves to be plotted and therefore potential damage scenarios to be represented.


Predictive models Fragility curves Vulnerability assessment L’Aquila earthquake Masonry churches 



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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Architecture and Industrial DesignUniversity of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”AversaItaly
  2. 2.Department of Engineering and GeologyUniversity “G. d’AnnunzioPescaraItaly

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