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Probabilistic assessments of flood defence performance subject to induced seismicity

  • S.I. : Induced Seismicity and Its Effects on Built Environment
  • Published:
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Gas extraction in the Groningen Province in the Netherlands has caused seismicity. A method was needed for probabilistic assessments of the seismic performance of the levees that protect low-lying polders against flooding. By combining the First Order Reliability Method with response surfaces it proved possible to strongly reduce the required number of simulations with advanced numerical models to obtain reliable failure probability estimates. To illustrate the workings of the method, an application to a levee cross-section along the Eemscanal with a sheet pile wall is presented. The probabilistic method can be used for probabilistic assessments and the probability-based calibration of partial factors, and it could serve as a starting point for quantitative risk analyses for levee systems in earthquake prone regions.

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Acknowledgements

Prof. S.L. Kramer and Mr. E.O.F. Calle are gratefully acknowledged for their support in developing the methodology presented herein. Any errors or omissions remain the sole responsibility of the authors.

Funding

The study work presented herein was funded by the Project Stakeholders Noorderzijlvest (NZV) and Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij (NAM). Mr R. B. Jongejan acted as process facilitator on behalf of the Project Stakeholders. Independent assurance of the Primary levee Eemshaven—Delfzijl and Regional levee along Eemscanal projects was provided by an expert panel consisting of Prof. S. L. Kramer who reviewed the numerical model used for the 2D dynamic analyses and Mr. E. O. F. Calle who reviewed the probabilistic assessment model. The probabilistic assessment methodology for of the Primary levee was developed early 2017 and based on the knowledge obtained during this process it was further refined to assess the Regional levee of the Eemscanal during the second part of 2017.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Jongejan Risk Management Consulting B.V., Schoolstraat 4, 2611 HS, Delft, The Netherlands

    Ruben Jongejan

  2. Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Hydraulic Engineering Department, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

    Ruben Jongejan

  3. GR8 GEO (Formerly Fugro), Dimitrakopoulou 79, 11741, Athens, Greece

    Vasileios Drosos, Amalia Giannakou, Jacob Chacko & Panagiota Tasiopoulou

  4. Oude Dijk 3, 9981 TH, Uithuizen, The Netherlands

    Nelleke Zuideveld-Venema

  5. Waterschap Noorderzijlvest, Postbus 18, 9700 AA, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Nelleke Zuideveld-Venema

  6. Shell Global Solutions International B.V., Kessler Park 1, 2288 GS, Rijswijk, The Netherlands

    Sjoerd de Wit

  7. Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V., Schepersmaat 2, 9405 TA, Assen, The Netherlands

    Hans Huissoon

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  1. Ruben Jongejan
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  2. Vasileios Drosos
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  3. Amalia Giannakou
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  5. Panagiota Tasiopoulou
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Correspondence to Ruben Jongejan.

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Jongejan, R., Drosos, V., Giannakou, A. et al. Probabilistic assessments of flood defence performance subject to induced seismicity. Bull Earthquake Eng 17, 4517–4537 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0521-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0521-7

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