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Accounting for spatial correlation in the empirical scoring of probabilistic seismic hazard estimates

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Abstract

A procedure is here proposed to score probabilistic seismic hazard estimates provided by ergodic models by a comparison with accelerometric observations available during a control period. The procedure allows accounting for the potential bias induced by spatial correlation of hazard estimates due to the use of ground motion prediction equations in the modeling. Since this bias depends on the specific topological features of the studied system (relative positions of seismic sources and accelerometric control sites), numerical simulations are considered to correct it. An application of the above procedure is proposed for Italy where some probabilistic seismic hazard estimates have been provided in the last years, and where 76 accelerometric sites have been operating for more than 25 years. It is shown that, at least as the case study concerns, the amount of spatial correlation in the hazard estimates is relatively weak, it depends on the GMPE used in computations and increases with the exceedance probabilities and with the period of the acceleration response spectrum.

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Acknowledgments

Many thanks are due to A. Goretti, I. Iervolino and F. Sabetta for fruitful discussions and suggestions about methodological issues. We also thank F. Pacor, L. Luzi and the whole ITACA team for their valuable assistance in retrieving and managing accelerometric data. This study has benefited from funding of the Projects S2-2012 and S2-2014, provided by the Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri—Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC). This paper does not necessarily represent DPC official opinion and policies. Graphics have been realized by open software QGIS and Excel.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Siena, Siena, Italy

    D. Albarello

  2. OGS (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale), Trieste, Italy

    D. Albarello & L. Peruzza

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  1. D. Albarello
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  2. L. Peruzza
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Correspondence to D. Albarello.

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Albarello, D., Peruzza, L. Accounting for spatial correlation in the empirical scoring of probabilistic seismic hazard estimates. Bull Earthquake Eng 15, 2571–2585 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-9961-0

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