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Earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting as real-time hazard information to mitigate seismic risk at nuclear facilities

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Abstract

Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT.

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Acknowledgments

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007–2013] under grant agreement no. 282862. We are thankful to prof. Paolo Gasparini and dr. Georgia Cua for defining the milestones and supporting the development of our work plan in REAKT. We are thankful to the EEW research group at Caltech for allowing us to access and use the ShakeAlert UserDisplay software at a preliminary stage of our project. The feedback of swissnuclear and dr. Philippe Renault in REAKT is gratefully acknowledged. We are thankful to the Chief Editor prof. Ansal and three anonymous reviewers who helped to improve our manuscript with useful suggestions and comments.

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Author notes

  1. Jochen Woessner

    Present address: Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

  2. John Douglas

    Present address: University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Swiss Seismological Service (SED), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    Carlo Cauzzi, Yannik Behr, Jochen Woessner, John Clinton & Stefan Wiemer

  2. BRGM (French Geological Survey), Orleans, France

    Thomas Le Guenan, John Douglas & Samuel Auclair

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  1. Carlo Cauzzi
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Correspondence to Carlo Cauzzi.

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Cauzzi, C., Behr, Y., Le Guenan, T. et al. Earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting as real-time hazard information to mitigate seismic risk at nuclear facilities. Bull Earthquake Eng 14, 2495–2512 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-9864-0

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