Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Accounting for end-user preferences in earthquake early warning systems

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering volume 14, pages 297–319 (2016)Cite this article

Abstract

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) that rapidly trigger risk-reduction actions after a potentially-damaging earthquake is detected are an attractive tool to reduce seismic losses. One brake on their implementation in practice is the difficulty in setting the threshold required to trigger pre-defined actions: set the level too high and the action is not triggered before potentially-damaging shaking occurs and set the level too low and the action is triggered too readily. Balancing these conflicting requirements of an EEWS requires a consideration of the preferences of its potential end users. In this article a framework to define these preferences, as part of a participatory decision making procedure, is presented. An aspect of this framework is illustrated for a hypothetical toll bridge in a seismically-active region, where the bridge owners wish to balance the risk to people crossing the bridge with the loss of toll revenue and additional travel costs in case of bridge closure. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) is used to constrain the trigger threshold for four owners with different preferences. We find that MAUT is an appealing and transparent way of aiding the potentially controversial decision of what level of risk to accept in EEW.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15

Notes

  1. The notation <X; Y> designates lotteries with outcomes X or Y each with a 50 % probability.

References

  • Akkar S, Bommer JJ (2010) Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA, PGV and spectral accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean region and the Middle East. Seismol Res Lett 81(2):195–206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen RM (2011) Earthquakes, early and strong motion warning. In: Gupta H (ed) Encyclopedia of solid earth geophysics. Springer, Berlin, pp 226–233

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Allen RM, Kanamori H (2003) The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California. Science 300:786

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Auclair S, Goula X, Jara JA, Colom Y (2015) Feasibility and interest in earthquake early warning systems for areas of moderate seismicity: case study for the Pyrenees. Pure appl Geophys. doi:10.1007/s00024-014-0957-x

    Google Scholar 

  • Castelletti A, Soncini-Sessa R (2006) A procedural approach to strengthening integration and participation in water resource planning. Environ Model Softw 21(10):1455–1470

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cua G, Heaton T (2007) The virtual seismologist (VS) method: a Bayesian approach to earthquake early warning. In: Gasparini P, Manfredi G, Zschau J (eds) Earthquake early warning systems. Springer, Berlin, pp 97–132

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Douglas J, Woo G, Auclair S, Le Guenan T (2012), Critical review of participatory decision making in fields other than earthquake risk reduction. Report BRGM/RP-61480-FR. http://www.brgm.eu/content/public-reports

  • FEMA (2003) Multi-hazard loss estimation earthquake model HAZUS-MH MR3 technical manual

  • Giardini D, Woessner J, Danciu L, Crowley H, Cotton F, Grünthal G, Pinho R, Valensise G, Akkar S, Arvidsson R, Basili R, Cameelbeeck T, Campos-Costa A, Douglas J, Demircioglu MB, Erdik M, Fonseca J, Glavatovic B, Lindholm C, Makropoulos K, Meletti F, Musson R, Pitilakis K, Sesetyan K, Stromeyer D, Stucchi M, Rovida A (2013) Seismic hazard harmonization in Europe (SHARE): Online Data Resource. doi:10.12686/SED-00000001-SHARE

  • Iervolino I, Massimiliano G, Manfredi G (2007) Expected loss-based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems. Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 36(9):1151–1168. doi:10.1002/eqe.675

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iervolino I, Giorgio M, Galasso C, Manfredi G (2009) Uncertainty in early warning predictions of engineering ground motion parameters: what really matters? Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2008GL036644

    Google Scholar 

  • Kailiponi P (2010) Analysing evacuation decisions using multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT). Proc Eng 3:163–174. doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2010.07.016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keeney RL, Raiffa H (1993) Decisions with multiple objectives: preferences and value tradeoffs. Wiley, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Le Guenan T, Smai F, Loschetter A, Auclair S, Douglas J (2014) Proposed participatory decision-making framework of REAKT and application to test cases. Deliverable D6.7, REAKT (Strategies and tools for Real Time EArthquake RisK ReducTion). http://www.reaktproject.eu/deliverables/REAKT-D6.7.pdf

  • Nakamura Y, Saita J (2007) UrEDAS, the earthquake warning system: today and tomorrow. In: Gasparini P, Manfredi G, Zschau J (eds) Earthquake early warning systems. Springer, Berlin, pp. 249–281

  • Neapolitan RE (2004) Learning bayesian networks, vol 38. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River

    Google Scholar 

  • Satriano C, Elia L, Martino C, Lancieri M, Zollo A, Iannaccone G (2011) PRESTo, the earthquake warning system for southern Italy: concepts, capabilities and future perspectives. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 31(2):137–153. doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2010.06.008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taillefer N, Monfort-Climent D, Bastone V (2014) Loss estimation for co-seismic risk assessment through an EWS. Report BRGM/RP-63614-FR. http://www.brgm.eu/content/public-reports

  • Von Neumann J, Morgenstern O (1953) Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang JP, Wu YM, Lin TL, Brant L (2012) The uncertainties of a PD36PGV onsite earthquake early warning system. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 36:32–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu S, Beck JL, Heaton TH (2013) ePAD: earthquake probability-based automated decision-making framework for earthquake early warning. Comput Aided Civ Infrastruct Eng 28:737–752

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wurman G, Allen RM, Lombard P (2007) Toward earthquake early warning in northern California. J Geophys Res 112:B08311. doi:10.1029/2006JB004830

    Google Scholar 

  • Zollo A, Amoroso O, Lancieri M, Wu YM, Kanamori H (2010) A threshold-based earthquake early warning using dense accelerometer networks. Geophys J Int 183:963–974

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by REAKT (Strategies and tools for Real Time EArthquake RisK ReducTion), a Framework 7 project funded by the European Commission (ENV.2011.1.3.1-1). We thank Gordon Woo for discussions on decision making. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their extensive and detailed comments on an earlier version of this article.

Author information

Author notes

  1. John Douglas

    Present address: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Level 5, 75 Montrose Street, Glasgow, G1 1XJ, UK

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Risks and Prevention Division (DRP), BRGM, 3 Avenue C. Guillemin, BP 36009, 45060, Orleans Cedex 2, France

    Thomas Le Guenan, Farid Smai, Annick Loschetter, Samuel Auclair, Daniel Monfort & Nicolas Taillefer

Authors
  1. Thomas Le Guenan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Farid Smai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Annick Loschetter
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Samuel Auclair
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Daniel Monfort
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Nicolas Taillefer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. John Douglas
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Thomas Le Guenan.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Le Guenan, T., Smai, F., Loschetter, A. et al. Accounting for end-user preferences in earthquake early warning systems. Bull Earthquake Eng 14, 297–319 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9802-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9802-6

Keywords

search

Navigation