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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara Region

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Abstract

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in Eastern Marmara Region using an improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology. Two significant improvements over the previous seismic hazard assessment practices are accomplished in this study: advanced seismic source characterization models in terms of source geometry and recurrence relationships are developed, and improved global ground motion models (NGA-W1 models) are employed to represent the ground motion variability. Planar fault segments are defined and a composite magnitude distribution model is used for all seismic sources in the region to properly represent the characteristic behavior of the North Anatolian Fault without the need for an additional background zone. Multi-segment ruptures are considered using the rupture model proposed by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003). Events in the earthquake catalogue are attributed to the fault zones and scenario weights are determined by releasing the accumulated seismic energy. The uniform hazard spectra at 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level for different soil conditions (soil and rock) are revealed for specific locations in the region (Adapazarı, Düzce, Gemlik, Izmit, Iznik and Sapanca). Hazard maps of the region for rock site conditions at the selected hazard levels are provided to allow the readers perform site-specific hazard assessment and develop site-specific design spectrum for local site conditions.

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Acknowledgments

This work was partially funded by METU: “Seismic Source Modeling and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Marmara Sea and Adapazarı Region” (BAP Award Number: BAP-03-03-2009-01). We are thankful to Prof. Dr. Yener Özkan for his support. The authors wish to acknowledge Prof. Dr. Haluk Akgün, Dr. Mustafa Koçkar, and Selim Cambazoglu for their contribution on seismic source models of the region. We appreciate the help and support of Norman A. Abrahamson and Nick Gregor regarding the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment calculations.

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  1. Civil Engineering Department K1-308, Middle East Technical University, 06531 , Ankara, Turkey

    Zeynep Gülerce & Soner Ocak

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  1. Zeynep Gülerce
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  2. Soner Ocak
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Correspondence to Zeynep Gülerce.

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Gülerce, Z., Ocak, S. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara Region. Bull Earthquake Eng 11, 1259–1277 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9443-6

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