Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A decision support system for post-earthquake reliability assessment of structures subjected to aftershocks: an application to L’Aquila earthquake, 2009

  • Original Research Paper
  • Published:
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The post-earthquake assessment of existing structures can be further complicated by the progressive damage induced by the occurrence of a sequence of aftershocks. This work presents a simple methodology for the calculation of the probability of exceeding a certain limit state in a given interval of time. The time-decaying mean daily rate of occurrence of significant aftershock events is modeled by employing a site-specific aftershock model for the L’Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). The number of aftershock events occurring in a given interval of time elapsed after the main event is modeled using a non-homogenous Poisson model. An equivalent single-degree of freedom structure with cyclic stiffness degradation is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage caused by a sequence of aftershock events. Given the time history of the main-shock and the residual damage caused by it, the probability of exceeding a set of discrete limit states in a given interval of time is calculated. Of particular importance is the time-variant probability of exceeding the limit state in a 24-h (a day) interval of time which can be used as a proxy for the life-safety considerations regarding the re-occupancy of the structure and to complement the results of visual inspections for prioritizing the emergency operations. The method presented herein can also be used in an adaptive manner, progressively conditioned on the time-histories of aftershock events following the main-shock and on the corresponding residual damage caused by them.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Asprone D, Jalayer F, Prota A, Manfredi G (2010) Proposal of a probabilistic model for multi-hazard risk assessment of structures in seismic zones subjected to blast for the limit state of collapse. Structural Safety 32(1): 25–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CEN, European Committee for Standardisation TC250/SC8/ (2003) Eurocode 8: Design Provisions for Earthquake Resistance of Structures, Part 1.1: General rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings, PrEN1998-1

  • Goulet CA, Haselton CB, Mitrani-Reiser J, Beck JL, DeierLein GG, Porter KA, Stewart JP (2007) Evaluation of the seismic performance of a code-conforming reinforced concrete frame building –from seismic hazard to collapse safety and economic losses. Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 36: 1973–1997

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guida M, Calabria R, Pulcini G (1989) Bayes inference for a non-homogenous Poisson Process with power intensity law. IEEE Trans Reliab 38(5): 603–609

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lolli B, Gasperini P (2003) Aftershocks hazard in Italy part I: estimation of time-magnitude distribution model parameters and computation of probabilities of occurrence. J Seismol 7: 235–257

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mander JB, Priestley JN, Park R (1988) Theoretical stress-strain model for confined concrete. J Struct Eng 114(8): 1804–1826

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reasenberg P, Jones L (1989) Earthquake hazard after a main-shock in California. Science 243: 1173–1175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reasenberg P, Jones L (1994) Earthquake afershocks: update. Science 265: 1251–1252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sabetta F, Pugliese A (1996) Estimation of response spectra and simulation of nonstationary earthquake ground motions. Bull Seismol Soc Am 86(2): 337–352

    Google Scholar 

  • Yeo G, Cornell CA (2009a) A probabilsitic framework for quantification of aftershock ground-motion hazard in California: methodology and parametric study. Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 38(1): 45–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeo G, Cornell CA (2009b) Post-quake decision analysis using dynamic programming. Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 38(1): 79–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeo G, Cornell CA (2009c) Equivalent constant rates for post-quake seismic decision making. Structural Safety, Early View, January

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Structural Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125, Naples, Italy

    Fatemeh Jalayer, Domenico Asprone, Andrea Prota & Gaetano Manfredi

Authors
  1. Fatemeh Jalayer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Domenico Asprone
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Andrea Prota
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Gaetano Manfredi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fatemeh Jalayer.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Jalayer, F., Asprone, D., Prota, A. et al. A decision support system for post-earthquake reliability assessment of structures subjected to aftershocks: an application to L’Aquila earthquake, 2009. Bull Earthquake Eng 9, 997–1014 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-010-9230-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-010-9230-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation