The Solar Cycle: a new prediction technique based on logarithmic values
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A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values is proposed to predict the maximum amplitude (R m) of a solar cycle from the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aa min). The correlation between lnR m and lnaa min (r=0.92) is slightly stronger than that between R m and aa min (r=0.90). From this method, cycle 24 is predicted to have a peak size of R m(24)=81.7(1±13.2%). If the suggested error in aa (3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation coefficient between R m and aa min (r=0.94) will be slightly higher, and the peak of cycle 24 is predicted much lower, R m(24)=52.5±13.1. Therefore, the prediction of R m based on the relationship between R m and aa min depends greatly on the accurate measurement of aa.
KeywordsSpace weather The Sun The Solar Cycle
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