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Short-term load forecasting based on IPSO-DBiLSTM network with variational mode decomposition and attention mechanism

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Abstract

Accurate short-term load forecasting is crucial for the steady operation of the power system and power market schedule planning. The extraction of features and training of prediction models are challenging as the load series is extremely volatile and nonlinear. To address the above issues, we propose a deep bidirectional long short-term memory (DBiLSTM) network based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and an attention mechanism, in which the model hyperparameters are optimized using the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) technique. In this study, the mode number k of the VMD is determined by the ratio of residual energy following decomposition. Subsequently, the DBiLSTM is stacked using multiple layers of BiLSTM for a more precise representation of time-series data and the capturing of information at different scales, thereby enabling nonlinear load sequence forecasting and enhancing the accuracy. Finally, the IPSO uses nonlinear decreasing inertia weights to overcome the drawbacks of premature convergence and local optima. The effectiveness and progress of the proposed method are evaluated using the power load dataset from the ninth electrical attribute modeling competition test questions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Information and Electrical Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Congtai, Handan, 056038, Hebei, China

    Yuan Huang, Zheng Huang, JunHao Yu, XiaoHong Dai & YuanYuan Li

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Junhao Yu, Xiaohong Dai and Yuanyuan Li are contributed equally to this work.

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Huang, Y., Huang, Z., Yu, J. et al. Short-term load forecasting based on IPSO-DBiLSTM network with variational mode decomposition and attention mechanism. Appl Intell 53, 12701–12718 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-022-04174-z

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