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Table 2 A comparison of modelled outcomes for a range of policies

From: Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions—the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework

Policy scenario Change consumption (%) Change in purchasing (%) Change in purchasing (£m) Change in harm (per year/after 10 years) Change in harm spending (£m)
England total Moderate drinkers Harmful drinkers England total Moderate drinkers Harmful drinkers Retailer revenue Duty + VAT revenue Deaths Health QALYs Crime QALYs Health Crime Employment
General price +10 % −4.2 % −3.5 % −4.5 % 5.7 % 6.7 % 5.2 % £1,051.70 £4.54 −1,517.77 −12,366.65 −1,621.66 −£161.65 −£98.15 −£337.73
General price +25 % −10.9 % −8.8 % −11.7 % 12.2 % 15.4 % 10.8 % £2,337.36 −£54.58 −3,785.61 −30,732.92 −4,143.21 −£401.87 −£250.43 −£853.33
Low priced off trade products +25 % −0.9 % −0.5 % −1.4 % 1.6 % 1.0 % 2.0 % £284.91 £8.40 −524.80 −3,812.94 5.79 −£49.72 −£0.77 −£77.97
Low priced on trade products +25 % −0.6 % −0.6 % −0.4 % 1.4 % 1.6 % 1.5 % £249.35 £17.30 −133.71 −1,370.61 −718.04 −£19.72 −£48.75 −£13.87
All low priced products + 10 % −0.6 % −0.5 % −0.7 % 1.4 % 1.1 % 1.6 % £239.14 £14.57 −265.30 −2,092.39 −288.34 −£27.94 −£20.03 −£37.33
Minimum price 15 p (off and on trade) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % £21.47 £3.54 −0.88 −5.18 21.09 −£0.30 £1.11 −£1.53
Minimum price 25 p (off and on trade) −0.1 % 0.0 % −0.5 % 0.8 % 0.4 % 1.2 % £137.12 £19.79 −47.36 −330.03 64.40 −£5.36 £3.28 −£36.74
Minimum price 50 p (off and on trade) −6.7 % −3.8 % −10.1 % 6.8 % 4.7 % 8.0 % £1,337.47 −£66.93 −3,060.23 −2,2353.74 −773.53 −£301.50 −£49.01 −£674.35
Minimum price 70 p (off and on trade) −17.5 % −11.5 % −22.7 % 10.2 % 8.7 % 10.6 % £2,295.23 −£387.66 −7,262.95 −55,083.73 −2,333.82 −£734.57 −£144.62 −£1,338.66
Minimum price 40 p off and 100 p on trade −3.4 % −2.0 % −5.5 % 6.4 % 4.8 % 7.6 % £1,142.37 £54.97 −1,568.06 −12,081.34 −898.44 −£162.34 −£56.11 −£380.73
30 p minimum price beers only −0.2 % 0.1 % −0.9 % 1.0 % 0.5 % 1.3 % £168.53 £25.98 −47.27 −349.84 10.34 −£6.11 £0.77 −£83.64
Ban off trade discounting if >50 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % £0.98 −£0.02 −2.34 −17.55 −0.02 −£0.23 −£0.01 −£0.29
Ban off trade discounting if >20 % −0.8 % −0.5 % −0.8 % 0.6 % 0.5 % 0.6 % £116.37 −£11.10 −334.69 −2,563.34 −95.93 −£32.73 −£5.91 −£56.75
Total ban off trade discounting −2.7 % −1.9 % −3.0 % 2.0 % 1.6 % 2.2 % £411.86 −£43.76 −1,163.53 −8,932.99 −401.54 −£115.34 −£24.40 −£210.58
Ban off trade discount if reg price <30 p 0.0 % 0.0 % −0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % £18.91 £2.38 −10.75 −80.44 −0.83 −£1.15 −£0.06 −£7.51
Total advertising ban −26.9 % −26.9 % −26.9 % −26.9 % −26.9 % −26.9 % −£3,316.38 −£1,708.74 −8,233.53 −69,551.49 −10,345.33 −£926.52 −£620.79 −£1,828.96
10 % reduction in outlet density 13.2 % 11.5 % 14.1 % 9.8 % 6.7 % 12.4 % £1,114.85 £715.02 5,219.57 42,560.96 4,454.37 £559.03 £256.34 £1,217.50
10 % reduction in licensing hours −1.2 % −1.2 % −1.2 % −1.2 % −1.2 % −1.2 % −£146.49 −£75.48 −417.42 −3,463.39 −466.20 −£45.32 −£27.96 −£94.07