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Evaluating the Impact of the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy, 2010–2015


The 2010 US National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) set key targets for the reduction of HIV incidence (25 %) and the transmission rate (30 %) by 2015. We utilized published CDC data on HIV prevalence and mortality for 2007–2012, and literature-based incidence estimates for 2008–2012, along with mathematical modeling to evaluate whether the original NHAS incidence and transmission rate goals were achieved. From 2010 to 2015, a decrease was estimated from about 37,366 to 33,218 (11.1 % net decrease) for HIV incidence, and from 3.16 to 2.61 (17.4 % net decrease) for the HIV transmission rate. Over the same period, estimated all-cause mortality decreased from 17,866 to 16,085, while HIV prevalence increased from 1,181,300 to 1,270,755 persons living with HIV. At the conclusion of the original NHAS time period, important incremental but ultimately insufficient progress was made in attempting to reach key incidence and transmission rate targets for the NHAS. HIV prevention efforts must be reinvigorated in the NHAS’s second era.


La Estrategia Nacional contra el VIH/SIDA (ENVS) de 2010 estableció propósitos claves para la reducción de la incidencia del VIH (25 %) y la tasa de transmisión (30 %) antes de que terminara el año 2015. Utilizamos datos de la prevalencia y la mortalidad del VIH publicados por los Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades desde el año 2007 al año 2012, y estimaciones de la incidencia del VIH basada de la literatura desde el año 2008 al año 2012. Entonces usamos modelos matemáticos para evaluar si la ENVS original logró las metas para la incidencia y la tasa de transmisión del VIH. Desde el año 2010 al año 2015, observamos una reducción de aproximadamente 37,366 a 33,218 (11.1 % reducción neta) por la incidencia del VIH y de 3.16 a 2.61 (17.4 % reducción neta) por la tasa de transmisión. En el mismo periodo, la mortalidad bajó de aproximadamente 17,866 a 16,085, mientras que la prevalencia del VIH subió de 1,181,300 a 1,270,755 personas viviendo con el VIH. Al final de la época de la ENVS original, se logró progreso incremental, pero fue últimamente insuficiente para cumplir con las metas claves de la ENVS. Tenemos que fortalecer los esfuerzos de prevención contra el VIH en la segunda era de la ENVS.

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The authors thank Carolina Bonacci for review of the Spanish language abstract. RAB was supported by the Center of Excellence for Diversity in Health Education and Research at the University of Pennsylvania. Funding agencies did not participate in study design or analysis.

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Correspondence to Robert A. Bonacci.

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Bonacci, R.A., Holtgrave, D.R. Evaluating the Impact of the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy, 2010–2015. AIDS Behav 20, 1383–1389 (2016).

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  • HIV
  • AIDS
  • Policy analysis
  • Surveillance
  • Mathematical modeling
  • United States