The forward discount puzzle and market efficiency

Abstract

We argue that the forward discount puzzle is primarily a statistical phenomenon and that statistical rejections of Uncovered Interest Parity do not necessarily constitute valid rejections of market efficiency. We find by using a Taylor expansion a theoretical negative bias in existing regressions of UIP. We propose two alternative tests for market efficiency, one of which is designed to measure the degree of market inefficiency. Our results from these tests indicate that for all four of the bilateral dollar parities studied the foreign exchange market is efficient despite decisive clear rejections of UIP using the conventional regression approach.

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Correspondence to Keith Pilbeam.

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Pilbeam, K., Olmo, J. The forward discount puzzle and market efficiency. Ann Finance 7, 119–135 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10436-010-0159-1

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Keywords

  • Forward discount puzzle
  • Efficient market hypothesis
  • Jensen’s inequality
  • Taylor expansion
  • Uncovered interest parity

JEL Classification

  • F31