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A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System

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This paper extends the model proposed by Goodhart, Sunirand, and Tsomocos (2004, 2005, 2006) to an infinite horizon setting. Thus, we are able to assess how the model conforms with the time series data of the UK banking system. We conclude that, since the model performs satisfactorily, it can be readily used to assess financial fragility given its flexibility, computability, and the presence of multiple contagion channels and heterogeneous banks and investors.

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Correspondence to Dimitrios P. Tsomocos.

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JEL Classification Numbers C68, E4, E5, G11, G21

We are grateful to seminar participants at the Bank of England, European Central Bank, University of Oxford, University of Pireaus, 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London and especially an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions

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Goodhart, C.A.E., Sunirand, P. & Tsomocos, D.P. A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System. Annals of Finance 2, 1–21 (2006).

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