EcoHealth

, Volume 11, Issue 3, pp 420–428 | Cite as

Macroclimate Determines the Global Range Limit of Aedes aegypti

Original Contribution

Abstract

Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue and a number of other diseases worldwide. Because of the domestic nature of this mosquito, the relative importance of macroclimate in shaping its distribution has been a controversial issue. We have captured here the worldwide macroclimatic conditions occupied by Aaegypti in the last century. We assessed the ability of this information to predict the species’ observed distribution using supra-continental spatially-uncorrelated data. We further projected the distribution of the colonized climates in the near future (2010–2039) under two climate-change scenarios. Our results indicate that the macroclimate is largely responsible for setting the maximum range limit of Aaegypti worldwide and that in the near future, relatively wide areas beyond this limit will receive macroclimates previously occupied by the species. By comparing our projections, with those from a previous model based strictly on species-climate relationships (i.e., excluding human influence), we also found support for the hypothesis that much of the species’ range in temperate and subtropical regions is being sustained by artificial environments. Altogether, these findings suggest that, if the domestic environments commonly exploited by this species are available in the newly suitable areas, its distribution may expand considerably in the near future.

Keywords

Aedes aegypti Climate change Dengue Global distribution Urban disease-vectors 

Supplementary material

10393_2014_918_MOESM1_ESM.doc (1.1 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOC 1147 kb)

References

  1. Albou L-P, Schwarz B, Poch O, Wurtz JM, Moras D (2009) Defining and characterizing protein surface using alpha shapes. Proteins: Structure, Function, and Bioinformatics 76:1-12CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon R (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology 43:1223-1232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Araújo MB, Pearson RG, Thuiller W, Erhard M (2005) Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change. Global Change Biology 11:1504-1513CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Beebe NW, Cooper RD, Mottram P, Sweeney AW (2009) Australia’s dengue risk driven by human adaptation to climate change. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 3:e429PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Buckley LB, Urban MC, Angilletta MJ, Crozier LG, Rissler LJ, Sears MW (2010) Can mechanism inform species’ distribution models? Ecology Letters 13:1041-1054PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Capinha C, Anastácio P, Tenedório JA (2012) Predicting the impact of climate change on the invasive decapods of the Iberian inland waters: an assessment of reliability. Biological Invasions 14:1737-1751CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Christophers S (1960) Aëdes aegypti (L) the Yellow Fever Mosquito: its Life History, Bionomics and Structure. Cambridge: Cambridge University PressGoogle Scholar
  8. Edelsbrunner H, Kirkpatrick D, Seidel R (1983) On the shape of a set of points in the plane. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 29:551-559CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Edelsbrunner H, Mücke EP (1994) Three-dimensional alpha shapes. ACM Transactions on Graphics 13:43-72CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Fitzpatrick MC, Hargrove WW (2009) The projection of species distribution models and the problem of non-analog climate. Biodiversity and Conservation 18:2255-2261CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Focks D, Haile D, Daniels E, Mount G (1993) Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): analysis of the literature and model development. Journal of Medical Entomology 30:1003-1017PubMedGoogle Scholar
  12. Guisan A, Petitpierre B, Broennimann O, Kueffer C, Randin C, Daehler C (2012) Response to Comment on “Climatic Niche Shifts Are Rare Among Terrestrial Plant Invaders”. Science 338:193CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Hales S, de Wet N, Maindonald J, Woodward A (2002) Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model. The Lancet 360:830-834CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2013) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations. International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.3711 Google Scholar
  15. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25:1965-1978CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Hijmans RJ, Graham CH (2006) The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Global Change Biology 12:2272-2281CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Hopp M, Foley J (2001) Global-Scale Relationships between Climate and the Dengue Fever Vector, Aedes aegypti. Climatic Change 48:441-463CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Jansen CC, Beebe NW (2010) The dengue vector Aedes aegypti: what comes next. Microbes and Infection 12:272-279PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Jeschke JM, Strayer DL (2008) Usefulness of bioclimatic models for studying climate change and invasive species. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1134:1-24PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Jiménez-Valverde A, Peterson A, Soberón J, Overton J, Aragón P, Lobo J (2011) Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments. Biological Invasions 13:2785-2797CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Jones CC, Acker SA, Halpern CB (2010) Combining local-and large-scale models to predict the distributions of invasive plant species. Ecological Applications 20:311-326PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Kearney M, Porter WP, Williams C, Ritchie S, Hoffmann AA (2009) Integrating biophysical models and evolutionary theory to predict climatic impacts on species’ ranges: the dengue mosquito Aedes aegypti in Australia. Functional Ecology 23:528-538CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kearney MR, Wintle BA, Porter WP (2010) Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change. Conservation Letters 3:203-213CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Lounibos LP (2010) Human disease vectors. In Encyclopedia of Biological Invasions, Simberloff D and Rejmanek M (editors). Berkeley and Los Angeles, University of California Press, pp 150-154Google Scholar
  25. Lozano-Fuentes S, Hayden MH, Welsh-Rodriguez C, Ochoa-Martinez C, Tapia-Santos B, Kobylinski KC, et al. (2012) The Dengue Virus Mosquito Vector Aedes aegypti at High Elevation in México. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 87:902-909PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Omeara GF, Evans LF, Gettman AD, Cuda JP (1995) Spread of Aedes albopictus and decline of Ae. aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Florida. Journal of Medical Entomology 32:554-562Google Scholar
  27. Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A (2010) Downscaling global circulation model outputs: the delta method decision and policy analysis Working Paper No. 1. International Center for Tropical Agriculture. http://www.ccafs-climate.org/downloads/docs/Downscaling-WP-01.pdf. Accessed 13 May 2013.
  28. Reiter P (2001) Climate change and mosquito-borne disease. Environmental Health Perspectives 109:141PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Shope R (1991) Global climate change and infectious diseases. Environmental Health Perspectives 96:171PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Soper FL (1967) Dynamics of Aedes aegypti distribution and density. Seasonal fluctuations in the Americas. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 36:536PubMedCentralPubMedGoogle Scholar
  31. Vasconcelos PF, Travassos da Rosa A, Pinheiro FP, Rodrigues SG, Travassos da Rosa E, Cruz AC, et al. (1999) Aedes aegypti, dengue and re-urbanization of yellow fever in Brazil and other South American countries–Past and present situation and future perspectives. Dengue Bulletin 23:55-56.2Google Scholar
  32. Webber BL, Le Maitre DC, Kriticos DJ (2012) Comment on “Climatic Niche Shifts Are Rare Among Terrestrial Plant Invaders”. Science 338:193PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Wertheim HF, Horby P, Woodall JP (2012) Atlas of human infectious diseases, Chichester: John Wiley & SonsCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Williams CR, Bader CA, Kearney MR, Ritchie SA, Russell RC (2010) The extinction of dengue through natural vulnerability of its vectors. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 4:e922PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© International Association for Ecology and Health 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.CBA, Centro de Biologia AmbientalFaculdade de Ciências da Universidade de LisboaLisboaPortugal
  2. 2.Centro de Estudos GeográficosUniversidade de Lisboa, Alameda da UniversidadeLisboaPortugal
  3. 3.Unidade de Entomologia Médica, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina TropicalUniversidade Nova de LisboaLisboaPortugal

Personalised recommendations