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Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America

Abstract

An understanding of the influence of climate change on Ixodes scapularis, the main vector of Lyme disease in North America, is a fundamental component in assessing changes in the spatial distribution of human risk for the disease. We used a climate suitability model of I. scapularis to examine the potential effects of global climate change on future Lyme disease risk in North America. A climate-based logistic model was first used to explain the current distribution of I. scapularis in North America. Climate-change scenarios were then applied to extrapolate the model in time and to forecast vector establishment. The spatially modeled relationship between I. scapularis presence and large-scale environmental data generated the current pattern of I. scapularis across North America with an accuracy of 89% (P < 0.0001). Extrapolation of the model revealed a significant expansion of I. scapularis north into Canada with an increase in suitable habitat of 213% by the 2080s. Climate change will also result in a retraction of the vector from the southern U.S. and movement into the central U.S. This report predicts the effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk and specifically forecasts the emergence of a tickborne infectious disease in Canada. Our modeling approach could thus be used to outline where future control strategies and prevention efforts need to be applied.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank Brandon Brei, Nita Madhav, and David Skelly for their helpful input. J.S.B. was supported by NASA Headquarters under Earth Science Fellowship grant NGT5-01-0000-0205 and the National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada. This work was also supported by The Harold G. and Leila Y. Mathers Charitable Foundation (D.F.) and U.S. Department of Agriculture/Agricultural Research Service Cooperative Agreement 58-0790-2-072 (D.F.).

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Correspondence to Durland Fish.

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Brownstein, J.S., Holford, T.R. & Fish, D. Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America. EcoHealth 2, 38–46 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-004-0139-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-004-0139-x

Key words

  • autologistic model
  • global climate model
  • geographic information systems
  • Ixodes scapularis
  • greenhouse effect
  • spatial model