Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Economic cycle, fertility, and seasonal pattern of suicide rates in South Korea from 1995 to 2015

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Journal of Public Health Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Aim

The aim of this study is to investigate mixed risk factors associated with suicide rates in South Korea.

Methods

Data on suicide in South Korea from 1995 to 2015 were investigated to understand risk factors for suicide using time series analysis.

Results

We found that increasing GDP per capita growth rates and fertility rates were associated with decreasing suicide rates. Using the moving average method (monthly data), we found a negative correlation between suicide rates and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI). Moreover, a seasonal pattern of suicide rates was found in South Korea. The suicide rate was highest in May and lowest in January. The months of outliers occurred against the seasonal pattern observed in 1998, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2008. These might be associated with the economic crisis or other miscellaneous risk factors.

Conclusion

These results provide evidence that there is a significant relationship between suicide rates and the socioeconomic factors mentioned above in South Korea. The results obtained in this study may help to create public policies for lowering suicide rates in South Korea.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Blakely TA, Collings SC, Atkinson J (2003) Unemployment and suicide. Evidence for a causal association? J Epidemiol Community Health 57(8):594–600

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Chan CH, Caine ED, You S, Fu KW, Chang SS, Yip PS (2014) Suicide rates among working-age adults in South Korea before and after the 2008 economic crisis. J Epidemiol Community Health 68(3):246–252

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Chang SS, Gunnell D, Sterne JA, Lu TH, Cheng AT (2009) Was the economic crisis 1997–1998 responsible for rising suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia? A time–trend analysis for Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand. Soc Sci Med 68(7):1322–1331

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Chen YY, Yip PS, Chan CH, Fu KW, Chang SS, Lee WJ, Gunnell D (2014) The impact of a celebrity’s suicide on the introduction and establishment of a new method of suicide in South Korea. Arch Suicide Res 18(2):221–226

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Corcoran P, Reilly M, Salim A, Brennan A, Keeley HS, Perry IJ (2004) Temporal variation in Irish suicide rates. Suicide Life Threat Behav 34(4):429–438

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Doherty M (2001) Applications: The Surrogate Henderson Filters in X-11. Aust N Z J Stat 43(4):385–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dooley D, Catalano R, Rook K, Serxner S (1989) Economic stress and suicide: multilevel analyses. Suicide Life Threat Behav 19(4):321–332

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Durkheim E (1951) Suicide: a study in sociology (JA Spaulding & G. Simpson, trans.). Free Press, Glencoe, IL. (Original work published 1897)

  • Fu KW, Chan CH (2013) A study of the impact of thirteen celebrity suicides on subsequent suicide rates in South Korea from 2005 to 2009. PLoS One 8(1):e53870

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Gunasekarage A, Power DM (2001) The profitability of moving average trading rules in south Asian stock markets. Emerg Mark Rev 2(1):17–33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hultberg P, Calonge DS, Kim SH (2017) Education policy in South Korea: a contemporary model of human capital accumulation? Cogent Econ Financ 5(1):1389804

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jang J, Lee J, Choi E, Kim J (2005) Trends and policy tasks of developed countries in work-family compatibility system. Korea Labor Institute

  • Kawachi I, Berkman L (2000) Social cohesion, social capital, and health. In: Social epidemiology, pp 174–190

  • Khang YH, Lynch JW, Kaplan GA (2005) Impact of economic crisis on cause-specific mortality in South Korea. Int J Epidemiol 34(6):1291–1301

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Kilgallen T (2012) Testing the simple moving average across commodities, global stock indices, and currencies. J Wealth Manag 15(1):82

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim J (2016) South Korean youth in crisis: implications for political leadership. Geo J Asian Aff 3(1):39–44

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim D (2018) Cross-national pattern of happiness: do higher education and less urbanization degrade happiness? Appl Res Qual Life 13(1):21–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim H, Song YJ, Yi JJ, Chung WJ, Nam CM (2004) Changes in mortality after the recent economic crisis in South Korea. Ann Epidemiol 14(6):442–446

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Krämer W (1998) Fractional integration and the augmented dickey–fuller test. Econ Lett 61(3):269–272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krzywinski M, Altman N (2014) Visualizing samples with box plots. Nat Methods 11(2):119

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Kwon JW, Chun H, Cho SI (2009) A closer look at the increase in suicide rates in South Korea from 1986–2005. BMC Public Health 9(1):72

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Lester D (1995) Is divorce an indicator of general or specific social? J Divorce Remarriage 23(1–2):203–206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lester D, Yang B (1992) Fertility and suicide rates: a time series analysis in the United States. J Biosoc Sci 24(1):97–102

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Mincer J, Polachek S (1974) Family investments in human capital: earnings of women. J Polit Econ 82(2, Part 2):S76–S108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Statistical Office of South Korea (2017a) Monthly suicide rates. http://kosis.kr/statHtml/statHtml.do?orgId=101&tblId=DT_1B34E02#. Accessed 15 June 2017

  • National Statistical Office of South Korea (2017b) Stock market index, KOSPI-KOSDAQ. http://www.index.go.kr/potal/main/EachDtlPageDetail.do?idx_cd=1080#quick_05. Accessed 15 June 2017

  • Neumayer E (2004) Recessions lower (some) mortality rates: evidence from Germany. Soc Sci Med 58(6):1037–1047

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • OECD (2017) Mental health. In: Health at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/health_glance-2017-12-en

  • Oravecz R, Rocchi MB, Sisti D, Zorko M, Marusic A, Preti A (2006) Changes in the seasonality of suicides over time in Slovenia, 1971 to 2002. J Affect Disord 95(1):135–140

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Park BB, Lester D (2006) Social integration and suicide in South Korea. Crisis 27(1):48–50

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Partonen T, Haukka J, Nevanlinna H, Lönnqvist J (2004) Analysis of the seasonal pattern in suicide. J Affect Disord 81(2):133–139

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Petridou E, Papadopoulos FC, Frangakis CE, Skalkidou A, Trichopoulos D (2002) A role of sunshine in the triggering of suicide. Epidemiology 13(1):106–109

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Pierce A (1967) The economic cycle and the social suicide rate. Am Sociol Rev 457–462

  • Platt S, Micciolo R, Tansella M (1992) Suicide and unemployment in Italy: description, analysis and interpretation of recent trends. Soc Sci Med 34(11):1191–1201

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Preti A, Miotto P (1998) Seasonality in suicides: the influence of suicide method, gender and age on suicide distribution in Italy. Psychiatry Res 81(2):219–231

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Ruhm CJ (2000) Are recessions good for your health? Q J Econ 115(2):617–650

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song F, Hooper L, Loke Y (2013) Publication bias: what is it? How do we measure it? How do we avoid it? Open Access J Clin Trials 2013(5):71–81

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stuckler D, Basu S, Suhrcke M, Coutts A, McKee M (2009) The public health effect of economic crises and alternative policy responses in Europe: an empirical analysis. Lancet 374(9686):315–323

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor MP, Tonks I (1989) The internationalisation of stock markets and the abolition of UK exchange control. Rev Econ Stat 332–336

  • Williams M (2010) Uncontrolled risk: lessons of Lehman brothers and how systemic risk can still bring down the world financial system. McGraw Hill Professional

  • Woo JM, Okusaga O, Postolache TT (2012) Seasonality of suicidal behavior. Int J Environ Res Public Health 9(2):531–547

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • World Bank Indicator (2017a) GDP per capita growth (annual %). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?view=chart. Accessed 15 June 2017

  • World Bank Indicator (2017b) Fertility rate, total (births per woman). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?view=chart. Accessed 15 June 2017

  • World Bank Indicator (2017c) GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?view=chart. Accessed 15 June 2017

  • Yip PS, Caine ED (2010) Employment status and suicide: the complex relationships between changing unemployment rates and death rates. J Epidemiol Community Health 65(8):733–736

  • Yip PS, Fu KW, Yang KC, Ip BY, Chan CL, Chen EY, Lee DT, Law FY, Hawton K (2006) The effects of a celebrity suicide on suicide rates in Hong Kong. J Affect Disord 93(1):245–252

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Ma J, Jia C, Sun J, Guo X, Xu A, Li W (2010) Economic growth and suicide rate changes: a case in China from 1982 to 2005. Eur Psychiatry 25(3):159–163

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Zivin K, Paczkowski M, Galea S (2011) Economic downturns and population mental health: research findings, gaps, challenges and priorities. Psychol Med 41(7):1343–1348

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Houston, 5000 Gulf Freeway, Building 4, Room 216, Houston, TX, 77204, USA

    Donghwan Kim

Authors
  1. Donghwan Kim
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Donghwan Kim.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The author declares that he has no conflict of interest.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Kim, D. Economic cycle, fertility, and seasonal pattern of suicide rates in South Korea from 1995 to 2015. J Public Health (Berl.) 27, 379–385 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10389-018-0949-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10389-018-0949-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation