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Landslides

, Volume 15, Issue 3, pp 523–534 | Cite as

Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for landslide prediction in South Korea by considering the effects of antecedent rainfall

  • Moonhyun Hong
  • Junghwan Kim
  • Sangseom Jeong
Original Paper

Abstract

This study was conducted to determine the rainfall intensity-duration thresholds (ID curves) for landslide prediction by considering the effects of antecedent rainfall. Data for the time and location of landslides that occurred in South Korea from 1999 to 2016 were collected. Overall, 231 landslide histories from 1999 to 2013 were used to determine the rainfall thresholds, and 12 landslide histories from 2014 to 2016 were used to verify the proposed rainfall thresholds. Probabilistic ID curves were proposed to reflect the influence of other factors except rainfall, and ID curves for various inter-event time definitions (IETDs) were suggested to analyze the variation in the ID curves with the effects of antecedent rainfall. The results suggest that the IETD indicates the duration for which the antecedent rainfall affects the ground condition. It was also found that the ID curve for 12 h of the IETD was the most reliable of the verification procedures using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot and threat score (TS).

Keywords

Rainfall threshold Antecedent rainfall Inter event time definition (IETD) ID curve Probability 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIP) (No. 2011-0030040 and NRF-2014R1A2A1A11054606).

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Civil and Environmental EngineeringYonsei UniversitySeoulRepublic of Korea

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