, Volume 14, Issue 3, pp 961–980 | Cite as

Performance evaluation of a physically based model for shallow landslide prediction

  • Jui-Yi Ho
  • Kwan Tun LeeEmail author
Original Paper


Evaluating the performance of a physically based model for landslide prediction was conducted in this study. The model was developed based on the basis of the infinite slope instability analysis and TOPMODEL for saturated water level estimation, which enabled to predict the location and time of occurrence of shallow landslides. Field data from 2008 to 2013 in two areas vulnerable to landslide in Taiwan were collected to test the applicability of the model for landslide prediction. Three indexes including the probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and threat score (TS) were adopted to assess the advantages and disadvantages of the model. The results indicated that the POD for the landslide prediction by using the proposed model was 1.00, the FAR was lower than 0.25, and the overall TS value was higher than 0.75. It is promising to apply the proposed model for landslide early warnings to reduce the loss of life and property.


Shallow landslide Performance evaluation Infinite slope instability analysis Factor of safety Rainfall threshold TOPMODEL 


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Applied Research LaboratoriesTaiwan Typhoon and Flood Research InstituteTaipeiTaiwan
  2. 2.Department of River & Harbor EngineeringNational Taiwan Ocean UniversityKeelungTaiwan

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