Development of fragility functions for slope instability analysis

Fragility functions for slope instability analysis

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology for constructing fragility functions to characterise slope stability under a range of catastrophic earthquakes and rainfalls. The procedures for creating fragility functions, including the first-order reliability method (FORM) and the copula-based sampling method (CBSM), are demonstrated using a selection of typical slopes. The most common failure modes are included, such as the shallow sliding of an infinite slope, circular slip surface of a homogeneous slope, and tetrahedral wedge failure in a rock slope. Owing to the proposed approach, the fragility function can be applied to quantify the failure probabilities over a range of loading conditions with ease, as these are attributed to a function, rather than a design point. The advantage of these definitions is that the uncertainties of correlated soil shear strengths can be incorporated into the reliability models. The established procedure can provide a basis for describing vulnerable behaviour of a slope under various loading conditions and geometries.

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Acknowledgments

This research is partially supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China as part of Grant No. 2013CB036405. Three anonymous reviewers are acknowledged for their revisions, which greatly helped in improving the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Xing Zheng Wu.

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Wu, X.Z. Development of fragility functions for slope instability analysis. Landslides 12, 165–175 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-014-0536-3

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Keywords

  • Probability of failure
  • Fragility function
  • Slope stability
  • Earthquake
  • Rainfall