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Applicability of a Bayesian state-space model for evaluating the effects of localized culling on subsequent density changes: sika deer as a case study

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Abstract

At the landscape scale, localised culling is often conducted to achieve various deer management aims. However, few studies have assessed the effects of localised culling on deer population dynamics, owing to the spatially and temporally insufficient datasets of deer abundance that are derived from limited survey efforts. In this study, we estimated the population dynamics of a sika deer (Cervus nippon) population in the Tanzawa Mountains, central Japan, by Bayesian state-space modelling using spatiotemporally insufficient abundance indices and evaluated the effects of unit-specific culls on subsequent density changes in 56 units. The responses of deer density to unit-specific culls differed greatly among units, and a very weak correlation was observed between the intensities of unit-specific culls and the reduction in density. Deer populations in some units tended to resist density decreases despite high culling pressure, whereas those in other units were susceptible to density decreases with little to no culling pressure. Because the spatial scales of each unit were relatively small, annual density changes in each unit were largely influenced by deer movement in this estimation. The obscured effects of unit-specific culls, which were probably derived from deer movement among units in this case study, re-emphasized that deer migration should be incorporated into the planning of localised culling and that deer management should be coordinated over a wide area beyond landscape components and landownerships. Thus, we conclude that Bayesian state-space modelling is valuable for practical deer management programs at a large spatial scale even if different abundance indices are used.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the public officers of Kanagawa Prefecture Nature Conservation Center and the hunters of Kanagawa Hunting Club for data collection. We appreciate Dr. Mayumi Ueno for her valuable comments on our early draft. We also appreciate two anonymous reviewers who provided useful comments that improved this paper. We would like to thank Editage (www.editage.jp) for English language editing. We thank the Charitable Trust Tasuke Inui Memory Animal Scientific Research Furtherance Fund and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI for funding.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Wildlife Management, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, 3-5-8 Saiwai-cho, Fuchu, Tokyo, Japan

    Kazutaka Takeshita & Koichi Kaji

  2. Kanagawa Prefecture Nature Conservation Center, 657 Nanasawa, Atsugi, Kanagawa, Japan

    Kiyoshi Tanikawa

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  1. Kazutaka Takeshita
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  2. Kiyoshi Tanikawa
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  3. Koichi Kaji
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Correspondence to Kazutaka Takeshita.

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Funding

This study was funded by the Charitable Trust Tasuke Inui Memory Animal Scientific Research Furtherance Fund (2015) to K. Takeshita, the JSPS Grants-in-aid for JSPS Fellows (grant number 16J06495) to K. Takeshita, and JSPS KAKENHI (grant number 16H02555) to K. Kaji.

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The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

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All applicable international, national, and/or institutional guidelines for the care and use of animals were followed

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Takeshita, K., Tanikawa, K. & Kaji, K. Applicability of a Bayesian state-space model for evaluating the effects of localized culling on subsequent density changes: sika deer as a case study. Eur J Wildl Res 63, 71 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10344-017-1128-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10344-017-1128-z

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