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Analyzing climate-induced mortality of Taurus fir based on temporal forest management plans and climatic variations and droughts in the Central Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey

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Abstract

Fir species have been threatened by extreme weather and climate conditions in many parts of the Mediterranean Basin. However, there are almost no studies focused on the mortality of Taurus fir in the Eastern Mediterranean basin and Turkey. This study aims to quantify the mortality pattern of Taurus fir stands in Hadim Forest Enterprise from 1971 to 2016 and to assess this pattern considering the long-term trends and fluctuations in the observed climate data. To this end, spatiotemporal changes in forest cover were analyzed using historical stand type maps in GIS. Statistical and graphical time-series analyses were performed on observed climate data. As a result, rapid areal losses were detected in pure fir stands, even though the annual rate of forestation is 0.5% for the entire forest. More than half of the stands transformed into pure or mixed stands dominated by black pine. Both fir stands and the entire forest became much more fragmented and drought-induced deadwood remarkably increased in almost all fir stands. Regarding the climatic analyses, statistically significant increased trends (p < 0.01) were detected particularly in annual, summer, and autumn mean and average maximum and minimum air temperatures of the Hadim station; strong decreased trends were observed in all relative humidity series; and rapid warming in the surrounding region along Hadim was observed. In addition, series of the Aridity Index and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index revealed that more arid conditions and significant droughts have dominated the study district since the 1990s. This period has been characterized mostly by long-term agricultural and hydrological droughts. We conclude that selective tree mortality events in the Hadim’s forests are likely caused by adverse impacts of observed climate variations and long-term droughts in the sub-region.

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Availability of data and material

The datasets generated during the current study can be available on reasonable request.

Code availability

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Acknowledgments

Some of the preliminary findings of this study were presented, and its abstract was published at the International Ecology 2018 Symposium, held on 19-23 June 2018 in Kastamonu, Turkey. Additional works, further data analyses, and significant improvements were made in the current paper. The authors thank Ayten Özdemir and İsmet Yener for data provision. The authors would also like to thank Hayati Zengin, Gökçe Yörükoğlu, and the anonymous reviewers for their detailed comments and valuable suggestions to improve the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Forest Engineering, Faculty of Forestry, Artvin Coruh University, 08100, Artvin, Turkey

    Can Vatandaşlar

  2. Department of Physics, Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Murat Türkeş

  3. Niksar Technical Sciences Vocational School, Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa University, Tokat, Turkey

    Akkın Semerci

  4. Forest Management and Planning Department, General Directorate of Forest, Ankara, Turkey

    Alptekin Karahan

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  1. Can Vatandaşlar
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Vatandaşlar, C., Türkeş, M., Semerci, A. et al. Analyzing climate-induced mortality of Taurus fir based on temporal forest management plans and climatic variations and droughts in the Central Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey. Eur J Forest Res 142, 61–89 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-022-01506-z

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