Abstract
In Europe, forest area is increasing. These recently established forests can be classified into regenerating after disturbances or expanding into agricultural areas after abandonment. We used European Space Agency land cover maps and MODIS data to investigate which socioenvironmental drivers influenced recent forest expansion and regeneration in Europe from 1992 to 2015 and to compare their productivity by means of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). Our results showed that forest area increased in Europe by 1.4% from 1992 to 2015. The 66% of this forest area increase corresponded to forest expansion mostly in Mediterranean and temperate regions, while regeneration (34%) dominated in boreal areas. Forest area and land cover diversity in 1992 were the main drivers of local forest area increase from 1992 to 2015. Forest expansion occurred on the warmer zones far from urban areas in the boreal region while it was the opposite in temperate and Mediterranean areas. On the other hand, forest regeneration showed mostly a positive relation with the distance to urban areas and water availability but no relation with temperature. The EVI values in 2015 were higher in expanding than in regenerating forests except in the warmer and drier bioclimates of Europe. These EVI trends suggest a higher productivity of expanding forests, except in areas where they cannot benefit from biological and physicochemical legacies of abandoned agricultural soils for tree growth, owing to water shortage. In sum, our results highlight that recent forest area increase in Europe is mostly caused by forest expansion into former agricultural areas but this is mostly occurring in less productive (warmer and drought-prone) bioclimates where advantages of agricultural legacies may not occur. Ultimately, this casts doubts whether there may be a limit for the role of forest expansion into agricultural areas for carbon sequestration in the long term.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alfaro-Sánchez R, Jump AS, Pino J et al (2019) Land use legacies drive higher growth, lower wood density and enhanced climatic sensitivity in recently established forests. Agric For Meteorol 276–277:107630. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107630
Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H et al (2010) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. For EcolManag 259:660–684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001
Baeten L, Vanhellemont M, De Frenne P et al (2010) The phosphorus legacy of former agricultural land use can affect the production of germinable seeds in forest herbs. Ecoscience 17:365–371. https://doi.org/10.2980/17-4-3372
Barton K, Barton MK (2019) Package “MuMIn.” Multi-model inference Version 1(6)
Baśnou C, Álvarez E, Bagaria G et al (2013) Spatial patterns of land use changes across a mediterranean metropolitan landscape: implications for biodiversity management. Environ Manag 52:971–980. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-013-0150-5
Basnou C, Vicente P, Espelta JM, Pino J (2016) Of niche differentiation, dispersal ability and historical legacies: what drives woody community assembly in recent Mediterranean forests? Oikos 125:107–116. https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.02534
Bates D, Sarkar D, Bates MD, Matrix L (2007) The lme4 Package. R Package Vers 2(1):74
Benayas JMR, Martins A, Nicolau JM, Schulz JJ (2007) Abandonment of agricultural land: an overview of drivers and consequences. CAB Rev PerspectAgric Vet SciNutr Nat Resour. https://doi.org/10.1079/PAVSNNR20072057
Bengtsson J, Nilsson SG, Franc A, Menozzi P (2000) Biodiversity, disturbances, ecosystem function and management of european forests. For EcolManag 132:39–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00378-9
Cahill S, Llimona F, Cabañeros L, Calomardo F (2012) Characteristics of wild boar (Sus scrofa) habituation to urban areas in the Collserola Natural Park (Barcelona) and comparison with other locations. Anim Biodivers Conserv 35:221–233
Cervera T, Pino J, Marull J et al (2019) Understanding the long-term dynamics of forest transition: from deforestation to afforestation in a Mediterranean landscape (Catalonia, 1868–2005). Land Use policy 80:318–331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.10.006
Compton JE, Boone RD (2000) Long-term impacts of agriculture on soil carbon and nitrogen in New England forests. Ecology 81:2314–2330. https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2000)081[2314:LTIOAO]2.0.CO;2
Crawley MJ (2007) The R book. Stat Papers 50(2):445
D’arrigo RD, Malmstrom CM, Jacoby GC, Los SO, Bunker DE (2000) Correlation between maximum latewood density of annual tree rings and NDVI based estimates of forest productivity. Int J Remote Sens 21(11):2329–2336
DeFries R, Hansen M, Townshend J (1995) Global discrimination of land cover types from metrics derived from AVHRR pathfinder data. Remote Sens Environ 54:209–222
Díaz-Delgado R, Lloret F, Pons X (2004) Spatial patterns of fire occurrence in Catalonia, NE, Spain. Landsc Ecol 19:731–745. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-005-0183-1
Di Gregorio A, Jansen LJM (2005) Land cover classification system: classification concepts and user manual food and agriculture organization of the United Nations. Rome
Didan K (2015) MOD13A1 MODIS/Terra vegetation indices 16-Day L3 global 500 m SIN grid V006, NASA EOSDIS LP DAAC
Diogo V, Koomen E (2016) Land cover and land use indicators: review of available data. OECD green growth Paper No. 2016/03. OECD Publication, Paris. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1787/5jlr2z86r5xw-en
EEA (2012) Protected areas in Europe - an overview. EEA Report No 5/2012. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark, p 130
EEA (2016) European forest ecosystems: state and trends. EEA Report 30/2016. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark, p 128
EEA (2017) Landscapes in transition. An account of 25 years of land cover change in Europe. EEA Report 10/2017. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark, p 226. doi: https://doi.org/10.2800/81075
ESA (2017) CCI Land cover product user guide version 2.0. http://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer/download/ESACCI-LC-Ph2-PUGv2_2.0.pdf, Last Access 10 Nov 2019
Eggleston HS, Buendia L, Miwa K, et al. (2006) IPCC 2006 - Guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. Japan
Espelta JM, Cruz-Alonso V, Alfaro-Sánchez R et al (2020) Functional diversity enhances tree growth and reduces herbivory damage in secondary broadleaf forests, but does not influence resilience to drought. J ApplEcol. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13728
Falcucci A, Maiorano L, Boitani L (2007) Changes in land-use/land-cover patterns in Italy and their implications for biodiversity conservation. Landsc Ecol 22:617–631. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-006-9056-4
FAO (2020) Global forest resources assessment 2020—Key findings. Rome. Doi: https://doi.org/10.4060/ca8753en
FRA (2018) Forest resources assessment: terms and definition FRA 2020. Working Paper. Rome, p 188
Fraterrigo JM, Turner MG, Pearson SM, Dixon P (2005) Effects of past land use on spatial heterogeneity of soil nutrients in southern appalachian forests. Ecol Monogr 75:215–230. https://doi.org/10.1890/03-0475
Freschet GT, Östlund L, Kichenin E et al (2014) Aboveground and belowground legacies of native Sami land use on boreal forest in northern Sweden 100 years after abandonment. Ecology 95:963–977
Fuchs R, Herold M, Verburg PH et al (2015) Gross changes in reconstructions of historic land cover/use for Europe between 1900 and 2010. Glob Change Biol 21:299–313. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12714
Gerard F, Petit S, Smith G et al (2010) Land cover change in Europe between 1950 and 2000 determined employing aerial photography. Prog Phys Geogr 34:183–205. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133309360141
Gold S, Korotkov A, Sasse V (2006) The development of European forest resources, 1950–2000. For Policy Econ 8:183–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2004.07.002
Gutman GG (1991) Vegetation indices from AVHRR: an update and future prospects. Remote Sens Environ 35:121–136
Holben BN (1986) Characteristics of maximum-value composite images from temporal AVHRR data. Int J Remote Sens 7:1417–1434
Hunt ER Jr (1994) Relationship between woody biomass and PAR conversion efficiency for estimating net primary production from NDVI. Int J Remote Sens 15(8):1725–1729
Jongman RHG (2002) Homogenisation and fragmentation of the European landscape: ecological consequences and solutions. LandscUrb Plan 58:211–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2046(01)00222-5
Justice O, Vermote E, Townshend R et al (1998) The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS): land remote sensing for global change research. IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sens 36:1228
Kankaanpää S, Carter TR (2004) Construction of European forest land use scenarios for the 21st century. The Finnish Environment, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki.http://www.ymparisto.fi/default.asp?contentid=106430&lan=en
Kauppi PE, Sandström V, Lipponen A (2018) Forest resources of nations in relation to human well-being. PLoS ONE 13:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0196248
Keenan RJ, Reams GA, Achard F et al (2015) Dynamics of global forest area: results from the FAO global forest resources assessment 2015. For EcolManag 352:9–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.06.014
Kelly AE, Goulden ML (2008) Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change. ProcNatlAcadSci 105:11823–11826. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0802891105
Körner C, Jetz W, Paulsen J et al (2017) A global inventory of mountains for bio-geographical applications. Alp Bot 127:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00035-016-0182-6
Krylov A, McCarty JL, Potapov P et al (2014) Remote sensing estimates of stand-replacement fires in Russia, 2002–2011. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/105007
Kuemmerle T, Levers C, Erb K et al (2016) Hotspots of land use change in Europe. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064020
Kumm KI, Hessle A (2020) Economic comparison between pasture-based beef production and afforestation of abandoned land in Swedish forest districts. Land. https://doi.org/10.3390/land9020042
Lambin EF, Meyfroidt P (2011) Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity. Proc Natl Acad Sci 108:3465–3472. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100480108
Leal Filho W, Mandel M, Al-Amin AQ et al (2017) An assessment of the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment in Europe. Int J Sustain Dev World Ecol 24:554–560
Lenth R (2019) Emmeans: estimated marginal means, aka least-squares means. R Package 1(3):4
Leuschner C, Wulf M, Bäuchler P, Hertel D (2014) Forest continuity as a key determinant of soil carbon and nutrient storage in beech forests on sandy soils in Northern Germany. Ecosystems 17:497–511. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-013-9738-0
Lindner M, Maroschek M, Netherer S et al (2010) Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems. For EcolManag 259:698–709. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.023
Liu HQ, Huete A (1995) A feedback based modification of the NDVI to minimize canopy background and atmospheric noise. IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sens 33:457–465. https://doi.org/10.1109/tgrs.1995.8746027
Matías L, Gómez-Aparicio L, Zamora R, Castro J (2011) Effects of resource availability on plant recruitment at the community level in a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem. Perspect Plant Ecol Evol Syst 13:277–285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2011.04.005
Mausolf K, Leuschner C, Härdtle W et al (2018) Legacy effects of land-use modulate tree growth responses to climate extremes. Oecologia 187:825–837. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-018-4156-9
Mell WE, Manzello SL, Maranghides A et al (2010) The wildland—urban interface fire problem—current approaches and research needs. Int J Wildl Fire 2005:238–251
Messier C, Bauhus J, Doyon F et al (2019) The functional complex network approach to foster forest resilience to global changes. For Ecosyst. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-019-0166-2
Metzger MJ, Bunce RGH, Jongman RHG et al (2012) A high-resolution bioclimate map of the world: a unifying framework for global biodiversity research and monitoring. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 22:630–638. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12022
Moeslund JE, Arge L, Bøcher PK et al (2013) Topographically controlled soil moisture drives plant diversity patterns within grasslands. Biodivers Conserv 22:2151–2166. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-013-0442-3
Montoya D, Zavala MA, Rodríguez MA, Purves DW (2008) Animal versus wind dispersal and the robustness of tree species to deforestation. Science 320:1502–1504. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1158404
Ogaya R, Barbeta A, Başnou C, Peñuelas J (2015) Satellite data as indicators of tree biomass growth and forest dieback in a Mediterranean holm oak forest. Ann For Sci 72:135–144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-014-0408-y
Palmero-Iniesta M, Espelta JM, Gordillo J, Pino J (2020) Changes in forest landscape patterns resulting from recent afforestation in Europe (1990–2012): pre-existing forest defragmentation versus new patch proliferation. Ann For Sci 77:1–15
Petersson LK, Milberg P, Bergstedt J et al (2019) Changing land use and increasing abundance of deer cause natural regeneration failure of oaks: Six decades of landscape-scale evidence. For EcolManag 444:299–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2019.04.037
Prince SD (1991) Satellite remote sensing of primary production: comparison of results for Sahelian grasslands 1981–1988. Int J Remote Sens 12:1301–1311
Prishchepov AV, Radeloff VC, Baumann M et al (2012) Effects of institutional changes on land use: agricultural land abandonment during the transition from state-command to market-driven economies in post-Soviet Eastern Europe. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024021
Roces-Díaz JV, Vayreda J, Banqué-Casanovas M et al (2018) The spatial level of analysis affects the patterns of forest ecosystem services supply and their relationships. Sci Total Environ 626:1270–1283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.150
Ruiz-Carbayo H, Pino J, Bonal R et al (2020) Insect herbivory in novel Quercus ilex L. forests: the role of landscape attributes, forest composition and host traits. Ann ForSci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-020-00934-4
Sluiter R, De Jong SM (2007) Spatial patterns of Mediterranean land abandonment and related land cover transitions. Landsc Ecol 22:559–576. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-006-9049-3
Song XP, Hansen MC, Stehman SV et al (2018) Global land change from 1982 to 2016. Nature 560:639–643. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0411-9
TBFRA (2000) Terms and definitions applied in the UN-ECE/FAO. Temperate and boreal forest resources assessment 2000. http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/timber/fra/definit.htm#Forest
Trabucco A, Zomer RJ, Bossio DA et al (2008) Climate change mitigation through afforestation/reforestation: a global analysis of hydrologic impacts with four case studies. Agric Ecosyst Environ 126:81–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.015
Tucker CJ (1979) Red and photographic infrared linear combinations for monitoring vegetation. Remote Sens Environ 8:127–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/0034-4257(79)90013-0
Turner DP, Ritts WD, Cohen WB et al (2005) Site-level evaluation of satellite-based global terrestrial gross primary production and net primary production monitoring. Glob Change Biol 11:666–684. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00936.x
UNECE-FAO (2001) Temperate and Boreal forest resource assessment 2000 (TBFRA-2000). Database maint by timber section UNECE Trade Divsion
Vandermotten C (2000) Building a continental area: identities, differences and urban developments in Europe. Belgeo. https://doi.org/10.4000/belgeo.13949
Vayreda J, Martinez-Vilalta J, Gracia M et al (2016) Anthropogenic-driven rapid shifts in tree distribution lead to increased dominance of broadleaf species. Glob Change Biol 22:3984–3995. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13394
Vicente-Serrano SM, Camarero JJ, Olano JM et al (2016) Diverse relationships between forest growth and the normalized difference vegetation index at a global scale. Remote Sens Environ 187:14–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2016.10.001
Vidal-Macua J, Ninyerola M, Zabala A et al (2017) Factors affecting forest dynamics in the Iberian Peninsula from 1987 to 2012. The role of topography and drought. For EcolManag 406:290–306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2017.10.011
Vilà-Cabrera A, Espelta JM, Vayreda J, Pino J (2017) “New Forests” from the 20th century are a relevant contribution for C storage in the Iberian Peninsula. Ecosystems 20:130–143. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-016-0019-6
Von Döhren P, Haase D (2015) Ecosystem disservices research: a review of the state of the art with a focus on cities. Ecol Indic 52:490–497. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.12.027
Von Oheimb G, Härdtle W, Eckstein D et al (2014) Does forest continuity enhance the resilience of trees to environmental change? PLoS ONE 9:1–18. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113507
Walther G-R, Post E, Convey P et al (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389–395
Wylie BK, Meyer DJ, Tieszen LL, Mannel S (2002) Satellite mapping of surface biophysical parameters at the biome scale over the North American grasslands: a case study. Remote Sens Environ 79:266–278
Ylitalo E, Aarne M (2013) Finnish statistical yearbook of forestry 2013. Finnish For Res Institute Vammalan Kirjapaino
Zang C, Hartl-Meier C, Dittmar C et al (2014) Patterns of drought tolerance in major European temperate forest trees: climatic drivers and levels of variability. Glob Change Biol 20:3767–3779. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12637
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Roberto Molowny (CREAF) and Llorenç Badiella (Applied Statistics Service—UAB) for their useful statistical advice. We are grateful to the Climate Change Initiative of the European Spatial Agency (ESA CCI-LC) for the elaboration and facilitation of the Land Cover time series. We are also grateful to the U.S. Geological Survey, the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) and the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) for the elaboration and facilitation of their datasets. We specially thank the two anonymous reviewers for their comments. This study was supported by the projects SPONFOREST (APCIN_2016_0174), NEWFORLAND (RTI2018-099397-B-C22 MCIU/AEI/ERDF, EU) and the pre-doctoral grant FI-AGAUR 2018 (FI_B_00934).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Communicated by Martin Moog.
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Palmero-Iniesta, M., Pino, J., Pesquer, L. et al. Recent forest area increase in Europe: expanding and regenerating forests differ in their regional patterns, drivers and productivity trends. Eur J Forest Res 140, 793–805 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-021-01366-z
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-021-01366-z