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Low survival of eggs and nestlings explain the decline of a local Jankowski’s Bunting population

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Abstract

Jankowski’s Bunting Emberiza jankowskii is one of several grassland birds that have suffered major population declines across their ranges, and the cause of these declines remains largely unknown. To determine what demographic drivers are responsible for their decline, we combined specific annual female productivity from a local Jankowski’s Bunting population and survival probabilities from the Ortolan Bunting, an ecologically similar species. We used an age-structured matrix population model to examine the population dynamics of Jankowski’s Bunting and showed that they may not be capable of sustaining a stable population, even without environmental stochasticity and density dependence. Compared to other Emberiza buntings with similar population trends, our results indicate that the population decline in Jankowski’s Bunting is largely caused by a particularly low reproductive success, and in particular a very low survival of eggs and nestlings. Despite the relatively low elasticity of the population dynamics to breeding parameters, our analysis suggests that increasing the number of fledglings to levels similar to those of closely related species would result in a growing population. Given that the reproductive success is highly influenced by nest predation or human disturbance, we suggest that initial conservation actions reducing interference from human activities are meaningful to improve the reproductive success of remaining Jankowski’s Bunting populations and allow the species to persist in the long term.

Zusammenfassung

Geringe Überlebensraten von Eiern und Nestlingen erklären den Rückgang einer lokalen Population der Jankowskiammer

Die Jankowskiammer (Emberiza jankowskii) ist eine von mehreren Wiesenvögeln, deren Bestände in ihrem gesamten Verbreitungsgebiet stark zurückgegangen sind, wobei die Ursache für diesen Rückgang noch weitgehend unbekannt ist. Um festzustellen, welche demographischen Faktoren für ihren Rückgang verantwortlich sind, haben wir spezifische Bruterfolgsparameter einer lokalen Jankowskiammer-Population mit Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeiten des Ortolans, einer ökologisch ähnlichen Art, kombiniert. Hierfür verwendeten wir ein nach Alter strukturiertes Matrix-Populationsmodell, um die Populationsdynamik der Jankowskiammer zu untersuchen und konnten zeigen, dass sie möglicherweise nicht in der Lage ist, eine stabile Population (Populationswachstumsrate λ=0,77) aufrechtzuerhalten, selbst wenn man dabei Umweltstochastik und Dichteabhängigkeit außer Acht lässt. Im Vergleich zu anderen Emberiza-Arten mit ähnlichen Populationstrends deuten unsere Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass der Populationsrückgang bei der Jankowskiammer zum größten Teil an einem besonders geringen Bruterfolg und insbesondere an einer sehr geringen Überlebensrate der Eier und Nestlinge liegt. Trotz der relativ geringen Anfälligkeit der Populationsdynamik gegenüber den Brutparametern deutet unsere Analyse darauf hin, dass eine Erhöhung der Zahl der Jungvögel auf ein ähnliches Niveau wie bei eng verwandten Arten zu einer wachsenden Population führen würde. Da der Bruterfolg in hohem Maße von Nesträubern und Störungen durch den Menschen beeinflusst wird, schlagen wir vor, dass zunächst Schutzmaßnahmen zur Verringerung der Störungen durch den Menschen vorgenommen werden sollten, um den Bruterfolg der noch vorhandenen Jankowskiammer-Populationen zu verbessern und den Fortbestand der Art langfristig zu sichern.

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Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 31971402) and the China Scholarship Council (CSC). We thank Steffen Oppel and other anonymous reviewers for their helpful remarks on this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Life Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China

    Zheng Han

  2. Centre d’Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO), Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, CP 135, 57 rue Cuvier, 75005, Paris, France

    Zheng Han, Alexandre Robert & Frédéric Jiguet

  3. Jilin Engineering Laboratory for Avian Ecology and Conservation Genetics, School of Life Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China

    Haitao Wang

  4. Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal Resource Conservation and Utilization, School of Life Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China

    Haitao Wang

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  1. Zheng Han
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  4. Frédéric Jiguet
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Contributions

HW and FJ contributed equally and should be considered as co-corresponding and senior authors. H.W. and F.J. conceived the project. Z.H. and A.R. analyzed the data. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Haitao Wang or Frédéric Jiguet.

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Han, Z., Robert, A., Wang, H. et al. Low survival of eggs and nestlings explain the decline of a local Jankowski’s Bunting population. J Ornithol 163, 817–826 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-022-01983-4

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