Abstract
The climate of Eastern Europe has undergone major changes in recent decades. Significant increases in seasonal temperatures and in droughts in the Republic of Tatarstan have adversely affected the status of the forests. As a consequence, the number of woodpeckers in these forests has been affected. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of climate change and its consequences on winter population dynamics of seven species of woodpeckers. Woodpeckers were censused over a 30 year period using transect methods on fixed plots spread over a large geographic area. The abundance of four species in the first half of the winter, and five species in the second half of the winter, showed significant increases. Ordination and regression analysis showed that the main factors determining the number of woodpeckers in winter were: mean minimum winter temperature, winter severity, date of the start of permanent snow cover, number of withering and dying trees in forests, and, for Great Spotted Woodpecker, the abundance of seeds of pine and spruce. We show that the abundance of woodpeckers in the first half of winter influences the numbers in the second half. However, abundance in late winter is determined to a greater degree by winter severity and the presence of food substrates. We found that increased average minimum winter temperature, a late start to winter, and a good food supply can increase densities of most woodpecker species in the late winter period. This is consistent with trends of greater survival in woodpeckers by the start of the breeding period. The resulting “mixed” picture of the impact of environmental parameters on the number of birds arises from the mutual influence of these impacts. Only such an influence could, in our opinion, cause the observed long-term changes in woodpecker species densities.
Zusammenfassung
Spechtpopulationen im Winter im Inneren des europäischen Kontinents sind stark vom Klimawandel und seinen Folgen abhängig
Das Klima Osteuropas hat sich in den letzten Jahrzehnten stark verändert. Eine erhebliche Zunahme der saisonalen Temperaturen und der Dürreperioden in der Republik Tatarstan hat sich nachteilig auf den Status des Waldes ausgewirkt. Infolgedessen hat sich die Anzahl der Spechte in diesen Wäldern verändert. Ziel dieser Studie war es, die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels und seiner Folgen auf die Populationsdynamik im Winter von sieben Spechtarten zu untersuchen. Die Spechte wurden über einen Zeitraum von 30 Jahren mit Hilfe von Transektmethoden an festgelegten, über ein großes geografisches Untersuchungsgebiet verteilten Flächen erfasst. Die Häufigkeit von vier Spechtarten in der ersten Winterhälfte und von fünf Arten in der zweiten Winterhälfte nahm signifikant zu. Ordinationsverfahren und Regressionsanalysen ergaben, dass die Hauptfaktoren, die die Anzahl der Spechte im Winter bestimmen, folgende sind: mittleres Temperaturminimum im Winter, die Strenge des Winters, der Datumsbeginn der permanenten Schneebedeckung, die Anzahl der trockenen und absterbenden Bäume und – für den Buntspecht – die Menge an Samen von Kiefern und Fichten. Wir zeigen, dass die Häufigkeit an Spechten in der ersten Winterhälfte die Anzahl in der zweiten Hälfte beeinflusst hat. Jedoch wird die Häufigkeit im Spätwinter stärker von der Strenge des Winters und dem Nahrungsangebot bestimmt. Wir haben festgestellt, dass ein höheres mittleres Temperaturminimum im Winter, ein später Winterbeginn und ein gutes Nahrungsangebot die Populationsdichten der meisten Spechtarten im Spätwinter erhöhen können. Dies stimmt mit dem Trend zu einer höheren Überlebensrate bei Spechten zu Beginn der Brutzeit überein. Das sich daraus ergebende „gemischte“ Gesamtbild der Auswirkungen von Umweltparametern auf die Anzahl der Vögel ergibt sich aus der gegenseitigen Beeinflussung dieser Auswirkungen. Nur eine solche Beeinflussung könnte unserer Meinung nach die beobachteten Langzeitveränderungen der Spechtdichten verursachen.
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Acknowledgements
We thank Lily and Madina Askeyeva for their unstinting help in organising logistics for the field surveys. Special thanks to Aleksi Lehikoinen who provided the opportunity to get acquainted with the primary material of the Finnish winter bird counts.
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AA participated in the data collection, wrote the methods, results and discussion. OA led the data collection, designed and developed the manuscript structure, wrote the introduction, methods, results and discussion. IA participated in all field work, manuscript structure, and contributed to results and discussion. TS participated in language edits, manuscript structure and statistical analysis.
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Askeyev, A.O., Askeyev, O.V., Askeyev, I.V. et al. Woodpecker populations in winter in the interior of the European continent are highly dependent on climate change and its consequences. J Ornithol 163, 481–493 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-021-01960-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-021-01960-3