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Reassessment of the size of the Scopoli’s Shearwater population at its main breeding site resulted in a tenfold increase: implications for the species conservation

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Abstract

Scopoli’s Shearwater (Calonectris diomedea) is a Procellariiform endemic to the Mediterranean Basin which is considered to be vulnerable in Europe due to recent local declines and its susceptibility to both marine and terrestrial threats. In the 1970s–1980s, its population size was estimated at 57,000–76,000 breeding pairs throughout the Mediterranean Basin, with the largest colony, estimated at 15,000–25,000 pairs, found on Zembra Island, Tunisia. The objectives of our study were to re-estimate the size of the breeding population on Zembra Island, to reassess the global population size of the species, and to analyse the implications of these findings on status and conservation of this species in the Mediterranean. Using distance sampling, we estimated the Zembra breeding population to be 141,780 pairs (95 % confidence interval 113,720–176,750 pairs). A review of the most recent data on populations of this species throughout the Mediterranean Basin led us to estimate its new global population size at 141,000–223,000 breeding pairs. Using the demographic invariant and potential biological removal approaches, we estimated the maximum number of adults which could be killed annually by all non-natural causes without causing a population decline to be 8800 (range 7700–9700) individuals, of which could be 3700 breeders. Although these results are less alarming in the context of species conservation than previously thought, uncertainties associated with global population size, trends and major threats still raise questions on the future of this species. More generally, we show how a monitoring strategy for a bird supposed to be relatively well known overall can be potentially misleading due to biases in survey design. The reduction of such biases would therefore appear to be an unavoidable prerequisite in cryptic species monitoring before any reliable inference on the conservation status of the species can be drawn.

Zusammenfassung

Eine neue Populationsschätzung von Gelbschnabel-Sturmtauchern an ihrem Hauptbrutvorkommen ergabe inen zehnfachen Anstieg: Konsequenzen für den Artenschutz. Der Gelbschnabel-Sturmtaucher Calonectris diomedea ist eine für den Mittelmeerraum endemische Röhrennasenart, die in Europa aufgrund aktueller örtlicher Bestandsabnahmen sowie ihrer Anfälligkeit für sowohl marine als auch terrestrische Bedrohungen als gefährdet gilt. Die Populationsstärke der Art wurde auf 57.000–76.000 Brutpaare geschätzt, wobei die größte Kolonie auf der tunesischen Insel Zembra in den 1970–1980er Jahren mit 15.000–25.000 Brutpaaren veranschlagt wurde. Ziele unserer Studie waren eine Neueinschätzung der Brutpopulation auf Zembra, eine Neubewertung der globalen Populationsgröße sowie eine Analyse der Implikationen für den Status und Schutz der Art im Mittelmeerraum. Mittels Distance Sampling schätzten wir die Brutpopulation auf Zembra auf 141.780 Paare (95 % Konfidenz intervall: 113.720–176.750). Wir sichteten die meisten aktuellen Daten zu den Populationen der Art im gesamten Mittelmeerbecken und gelangten so zu einer neuen Schätzung der globalen Populationsgröße von 141.000–223.000 Brutpaaren. Mithilfe von Methoden auf der Basis demografischer Invarianz und PBR (PotentialBiologicalRemoval) schätztenwir die Höchstzahl erwachsener Vögel, die jährlich durch nicht natürliche Ursachen umkommen könnten, ohne einen Populationseinbruch zu verursachen, auf 8.800 (Spanne: 7.700–9.700) Individuen, unter diesen 3.700 Brutvögel. Obwohl diese Ergebnisse weniger bedrohlich für den Erhalt der Art sind als zuvor angenommen, stellen Unsicherheiten bezüglich globaler Populationsgrößen, Bestandstrends und Hauptbedrohungsfaktoren nach wie vor die Zukunft der Art in Frage. Allgemein gesagt konnten wir zeigen, wie eine Monitoring-Strategie bei einer insgesamt scheinbar recht gut erforschten Vogelart aufgrund von Unausgewogenheiten in der Planung potenziell in die Irre führen kann. Solche Unausgewogenheiten möglichst zu reduzieren, erscheint daher eine unabdingbare Voraussetzung für das Monitoring kryptischer Arten, bevor verlässliche Aussagen zu ihrem Schutzstatus möglich sind.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the Tunisian agency for coastline conservation and management (APAL), especially Habib Ben Moussa and Saba Guellouz, and the Tunisian Army for granting permission and providing support to undertake this research. We are grateful to the PIM initiative (Conservatoire du Littoral, France) which has been in charge of the technical and the scientific organization of this operation and to the various institutions, NGOs and scientists from all around the Mediterranean who provided information. Many thanks to Fabrice Bernard, coordinator, and to Sami Benhaj, technical adviser of the PIM initiative. We are grateful to Dr. Alan Johnson and Patricia Rigby for improvement of the English and to Dr. Daniel Oro, Dr. Ross Wanless and three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on the manuscript. This study complies with the current laws of Tunisia.

This article has been written in the memory of “Asfour” Abdallah Ben Dafer from Zembra.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CNERA—avifaune migratrice, Office National de la Chasse et de la Faune Sauvage (ONCFS), Station Biologique de la Tour du Valat, Le Sambuc, 13200, Arles, France

    Pierre Defos du Rau

  2. School of Biological Sciences, Auckland University, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand

    Karen Bourgeois

  3. A dos d’îles–Association for the study and conservation of insular biodiversity, 101 Val de Sibourg, 13680, Lançon de Provence, France

    Karen Bourgeois & Sylvain Dromzée

  4. Europôle Méditerranéen de l’Arbois, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), UMR CNRS-IRD-UAPV, Aix-Marseille Université, Avenue Philibert, BP 80, 13545, Aix en Provence Cedex 04, France

    Karen Bourgeois & Lise Ruffino

  5. Conservatoire du Littoral, PIM–Initiative pour les petites îles de Méditerranée, 3 rue Marcel Arnaud, Bastide Beaumanoir, 13100, Aix en Provence, France

    Mathieu Thévenet & Sébastien Renou

  6. Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland

    Lise Ruffino

  7. Ridha Ouni Consultant, Béjaoua 2 Sidi Thabet, BP 23, 2020, Tunis, Tunisia

    Ridha Ouni, Bayrem Miladi & Aymen Nefla

  8. Ligue pour la Protection des Oiseaux/BirdLife en France, 8 rue du docteur Pujos, BP 90263, 17305, Rochefort Cedex, France

    Awatef Abiadh

  9. Conservatoire du Littoral, 3 rue Marcel Arnaud, 13100, Aix-en-Provence, France

    Roger Estève

  10. Conservatoire d’Espaces Naturels de Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, 166 avenue de Hambourg, Immeuble Le Sud, 13008, Marseille, France

    Jean-Patrick Durand & Lorraine Anselme

  11. Conservatoire d’Espaces Naturels de Corse, Maison Andreani, RN193, 20290, Lieu dit Revinco, Borgo, France

    Gilles Faggio

  12. Environment General Authority, Algheran, PO Box 83618, Tripoli, Libya

    Jaber Mohamed Yahya

  13. Laboratoire Valorisation des Ressouces Naturelles et Biodiversité, Département de Biologie, Faculté des Sciences, Université Chouaib Doukkali, El Jadida, Morocco

    Hamid Rguibi

  14. Spéléo Club de Bézier (SCBAM), Maison de la Vie Associative, 15 rue du général Margueritte, 34500, Béziers, France

    Michel Renda

  15. Association les Amis des Oiseaux (AAO), Ariana Center, Bureau C 208/209, 2080, Ariana, Tunisia

    Hennabaal Hamrouni & Slim Alilech

  16. Agence pour la Protection et l’Aménagement du Littoral (APAL), Le Bélvèdére, 2 Rue Mohamed Rachid Ridha, 1002, Tunis, Tunisia

    Wahbi Jaouadi & Sofiene Agrebi

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  1. Pierre Defos du Rau
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Correspondence to Pierre Defos du Rau.

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Communicated by C. Barbraud.

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Defos du Rau, P., Bourgeois, K., Thévenet, M. et al. Reassessment of the size of the Scopoli’s Shearwater population at its main breeding site resulted in a tenfold increase: implications for the species conservation. J Ornithol 156, 877–892 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-015-1187-4

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