Abstract
Population viability analyses (PVAs) are a useful technique in risk-assessment studies aimed at determining which demographic parameters are most influential in population persistence. Here, we incorporate demographic and environmental stochasticity in the construction of individual-based models integrating the effects of different scenarios in a PVA of the Eurasian Griffon Vulture (Gyps fulvus) and the endangered Egyptian Vulture (Neophron percnopterus) in Spain. Scenarios were based on reasonable options of population management, including effects of supplementary feeding (decreasing mortality and increasing fecundity), extensive wind farm development (increasing mortality), and catastrophic events such as poisoning (decreasing fecundity and survival) or pollutant ingestion (decreasing fecundity but no effect on survival). Our results show that those measures affecting survival show higher negative effects on population growth rate than those affecting fecundity. The outcomes were different and highly depend on the initial conditions and the species considered, with stronger negative effects on Egyptian Vulture populations. For both species, under similar conditions, the effects of massive poisoning, even occurring at low time frequency, had stronger negative consequences in population trends than the pollutant accumulation, or other actions affecting survival, such as installation of wind farms. Measures aimed at improving survival and fecundity such as supplementary feeding at vulture restaurants give rise to positive population trends. The establishment of management actions aimed at improving the birds’ survival and increasing breeding success will probably boost the scavengers’ populations into an upward trend, which is particularly important in the case of the endangered Egyptian Vulture.
Zusammenfassung
Population Viability Analysis (PVA) ist eine nützliche Methode in Risikobewertungsstudien, die darauf abzielt, zu ermitteln, welche demographischen Parameter für das Fortbestehen von Populationen am einflussreichsten sind. Hier berücksichtigen wir demographische Stochastizität und Umweltstochastizität bei der Konstruktion individuenbasierter Modelle, welche die Effekte verschiedener Szenarien in eine PVA für den Gänsegeier (Gyps fulvus) und den stark gefährdeten Schmutzgeier (Neophron percnopterus) in Spanien integrieren. Die Szenarien beruhen auf angemessenen Optionen von Populationsmanagement, welche die Effekte von Zufüttern (erniedrigt die Mortalität und erhöht die Fruchtbarkeit), großflächigem Bau von Windenergieparks (erhöht die Mortalität) und katastrophalen Ereignissen wie Vergiftung (erniedrigt die Fruchtbarkeit und das Überleben) oder Schadstoffaufnahme (erniedrigt die Fruchtbarkeit, aber hat keinen Effekt auf das Überleben) einschließen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass diejenigen Maße, die das Überleben beeinflussen, stärkere negative Effekte auf die Wachstumsrate der Population haben als die, welche die Fruchtbarkeit beeinflussen. Die Folgen waren unterschiedlich und hängen stark von den anfänglichen Bedingungen und der betrachteten Art ab, wobei die negativen Effekte auf die Schmutzgeierpopulationen stärker waren. Für beide Arten hatten unter ähnlichen Bedingungen die Effekte schwerer Vergiftung stärkere negative Folgen für die Populationsentwicklung als die Anreicherung von Schadstoffen oder andere Maßnahmen, die das Überleben betrafen, wie die Errichtung von Windenergieparks, und das obwohl Vergiftungen selten auftraten. Maßnahmen, die darauf abzielen, das Überleben und die Fruchtbarkeit zu verbessern, wie das Zufüttern in „Geierrestaurants”, führen zu positiven Populationsentwicklungen. Die Etablierung von Managementmaßnahmen, die anstreben, das Überleben und den Bruterfolg der Vögel zu verbessern, wird die positive Populationsentwicklung dieser Aasfresser wahrscheinlich fördern, was besonders im Falle des stark gefährdeten Schmutzgeiers wichtig ist.
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Acknowledgments
We would like to thank G. Pavokovic who kindly provided bibliographic material Thanks are due to two anonymous referees who made valuable suggestions to improve the paper. English grammar was reviewed by W. Smith. The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. This paper complies with the current laws of Spain. P. López-López was supported by a FPU grant of the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (reference AP2005-0874). The paper forms part of C. García-Ripollés PhD Thesis.
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García-Ripollés, C., López-López, P. Integrating effects of supplementary feeding, poisoning, pollutant ingestion and wind farms of two vulture species in Spain using a population viability analysis. J Ornithol 152, 879–888 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-011-0671-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-011-0671-8