Skip to main content

Climate variability and yield risk in South Asia’s rice–wheat systems: emerging evidence from Pakistan

Paddy and Water Environment volume 15, pages 249–261 (2017)Cite this article

Abstract

Rice and wheat are the principal calorie sources for over a billion people in South Asia, although each crop is particularly sensitive to the climatic and agronomic management conditions under which they are grown. Season-long heat stress can reduce photosynthesis and accelerate senescence; if extreme heat stress is experienced during flowering, both rice and wheat may also experience decreased pollen viability and stigma deposition, leading to increased grain sterility. Where farmers are unable to implement within-season management adaptations, significant deviations from expected climatic conditions would affect crop growth, yield, and therefore have important implications for food security. The influence of climatic conditions on crop growth have been widely studied in growth chamber, greenhouse, and research station trials, although empirical evidence of the link between climatic variability and yield risk in farmers’ fields is comparatively scarce. Using data from 240 farm households, this paper responds to this gap and isolates the effects of agronomic management from climatic variability on rice and wheat yield risks in eight of Pakistan’s twelve agroecological zones. Using Just and Pope production functions, we tested for the effects of crop management practices and climatic conditions on yield and yield variability for each crop. Our results highlight important risks to farmers’ ability to obtain reliable yield levels for both crops. Despite variability in input use and crop management, we found evidence for the negative effect of both season-long and terminal heat stress, measured as the cumulative number of days during which crop growth occurred above critical thresholds, though wheat was considerably more sensitive than rice. Comparing variation in observed climatic parameters in the year of study to medium-term patterns, rice, and wheat yields were both negatively affected, indicative of production risk and of farmers’ limited capacity for within-season adaptation. Our findings suggest the importance of reviewing existing climate change adaptation policies that aim to increase cereal farmers’ resilience in Pakistan, and more broadly in South Asia. Potential agronomic and extension strategies are proposed for further investigation.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price includes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1

References

  • Amjath-Babu TS, Krupnik TJ, Aravindakshan S, Arshad M, Kaechele H (2016) Climate change and indicators of probable shifts in the consumption portfolios of dryland farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa: implications for policy. Ecol Indic 67:830–838

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • APSIM (2014) The APSIM-wheat module (7.5 R3008). http://www.apsim.info/Documentation/Model,CropandSoil/CropModuleDocumentation/Wheat.aspx. Accessed 6 May 2016

  • Aravindakshan S, Rossi FJ, Krupnik TJ (2015) What does benchmarking of wheat farmers practicing conservation tillage in the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains tell us about energy use efficiency? An application of slack-based data envelopment analysis. Energy 90:483–493

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arshad M, Amjath-Babu TS, Kächele H, Müller K (2015) What drives the willingness to pay for crop insurance against extreme weather events (flood and drought) in Pakistan? A hypothetical market approach. Clim Dev 8(3):234–244. doi:10.1080/17565529.2015.1034232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Asseng S, Foster IAN, Turner NC (2011) The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields. Glob Change Biol 17(2):997–1012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Battisti DS, Naylor RL (2009) Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 323(5911):240–244

    CAS  Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Breusch TS, Pagan AR (1980) The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. Rev Econ Stud 47:239–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown ME, Funk CC (2008) Food security under climate change. Science 319(5863):580–581

    CAS  Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Chang TT, Tagumpay O (1970) Genotypic association between grain yield and six agronomic traits in a cross between rice varieties of contrasting plant type. Euphytica 19(3):356–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaudhry A (2000) Resource conservation technology and bed and furrow system for crop production: training manual for training at TII AME in Uzbekistan and OFWM in Pakistan. NZODA/ADAF project. p 40

  • Deschenes O, Greenstone M (2007) The economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural profits and random fluctuations in weather. Am Econ Rev 97(1):354–385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAOSTAT (2016) Paddy rice and wheat yields in Pakistan. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Statistical Database. http://faostat.fao.org/. Accessed 8 May 2016

  • Farooq M, Bramley H, Palta JA, Siddique KHM (2011) Heat stress in wheat during reproductive and grain filling phases. Crit Rev Plant Sci 30:1–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gourdji SM, Sibley AM, Lobell D (2013) Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections. Environ Res Lett 8(2):024041

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guttormsen AG, Roll KH (2014) Production risk in a subsistence agriculture. J Agric Educ Ext 20(1):133–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hatfield JL, Boote KL, Kimball BA, Ziska LH, Izaurralde RC, Ort D, Thomson AM, Wolfe D (2011) Climate impacts on agriculture: implications for crop production. Agron J 103:351–370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holst R, Yu X, Grün C (2013) Climate change, risk and grain yields in China. J Integr Agric 12(7):1279–1291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Isik M, Devadoss S (2006) An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability. Appl Econ 38(7):835–844

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jain M, Naeem S, Orlove B, Modi V, deFreis RS (2015) Understanding the causes and consequences of differential decision-making in adaptation research: adapting to a delayed monsoon onset in Gujarat, India. Glob Environ Change 31:98–109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Just RE, Pope RD (1978) Stochastic specification of production functions and economic implications. J Econom 7(1):67–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kabubo-Mariara J, Karanja FK (2007) The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: a Ricardian approach. Glob Planet Change 57:319–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keil A, D’souza A, McDonald A (2015) Zero-tillage as a pathway for sustainable wheat intensification in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains: does it work in farmers’ fields? Food Secur 7(5):983–1001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knox J, Hess T, Daccache A, Wheeler T (2012) Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia. Environ Res Lett 7(3):034032

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koundouri P, Nauges C (2005) On production function estimation with selectivity and risk. J Agric Resour Econ 30(3):597–608

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishna V, Aravindakshan S, Chowdhury A, Rudra B (2012) Farmer access and differential impacts of zero tillage technology in the subsistence wheat farming systems of West Bengal, India. CIMMYT-Socio-Economics Working Paper 5. CIMMYT, Mexico

  • Krishnan P, Ramakrishnan B, Raja Reddy K, Reddy VR (2011) High-temperature effects on rice growth, yield, and grain quality. Adv Agron 111:87–206

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krupnik TJ, Santos Valle S, Hossain I, Gathala MK, Justice S, Gathala MK, McDonald A (2013) Made in Bangladesh: scale-appropriate machinery for agricultural resource conservation in the context of smallholder farming. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Mexico City

    Google Scholar 

  • Krupnik TJ, Ahmed ZU, Timsina J, Shahjahan M, Kurishi AA, Miah AA, Rahman BS, Gathala MK, McDonald AJ (2015a) Forgoing the fallow in Bangladesh’s stress-prone coastal deltaic environments: effect of sowing date, nitrogen, and genotype on wheat yield in farmers’ fields. Field Crops Res 170:7–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krupnik TJ, Ahmed ZU, Timsina J, Yasmin S, Hossain F, Al Mamun A, Mridha AI, McDonald AJ (2015b) Untangling crop management and environmental influences on wheat yield variability in Bangladesh: an application of non-parametric approaches. Agric Syst 139:166–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kunimitsu Y, Iizumi T, Yokozawa M (2014) Is long-term climate change beneficial or harmful for rice total factor productivity in Japan: evidence from a panel data analysis. Paddy Water Environ 12(2):213–225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kunimitsu Y, Kudo R, Iizumi T, Yokozawa M (2015) Technological spillover in Japanese rice productivity under long-term climate change: evidence from the spatial econometric model. Paddy Water Environ. doi:10.1007/s10333-015-0485-z

    Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea MD, Falcon WP, Naylor RL (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319(5863):607–610

    CAS  Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Sibley A, Ortiz-Monasterio JI (2012) Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nat Clim Change 2:186–189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus WD, Shaw D (1994) The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. Am Econ Rev 84(4):753–771

    Google Scholar 

  • Mondal S, Singh RP, Crossa J, Huerta-Espino J, Sharma I, Chatrath R, Singh GP, Sohu VS, Mavi GS, Sukuru VSP, Kalappanavar IK (2013) Earliness in wheat: a key to adaptation under terminal and continual high temperature stress in South Asia. Field Crops Res 151:19–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morton JF (2007) The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(50):19680–19685

    CAS  Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • PAR (2016) Wheat crop in Pakistan. Pakistan Agricultural Research. http://edu.par.com.pk/wiki/wheat/. Accessed 23 May 2016

  • PARC, Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Crop Sciences Research Institute (2015). http://www.parc.gov.pk/index.php/en/csi. Accessed 12 March 2015

  • Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy JE, Laza RC, Visperas RM, Zhong X, Centeno GS, Khush GS, Cassman KG (2004) Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101(27):9971–9975

    CAS  Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Poudel S, Kotani K (2013) Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes? Clim Change 116(2):327–355

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ray DK, Gerber JS, MacDonald GK, West PC (2015) Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability. Nat Commun 6:1–9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds MP, Balota M, Delgado MIB, Amani I, Fischer RA (1994) Physiological and morphological traits associated with spring wheat yield under hot, irrigated conditions. Aust J Plant Physiol 21:717–730

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds MP, Quilligan E, Aggarwal PK, Bansal KC, Cavalieri AJ, Chapman SC, Chapotin SM, Datta SK, Duveiller E, Gill KS, Jagadish KSV, Joshi AK, Koehler A-K, Kosina P, Krishnan S, Lafitte R, Mahala RS, Muthurajan R, Paterson AH, Prasanna BM, Rakshit S, Rosegrant MW, Sharma I, Singh RP, Sivasankar S, Vadez V, Valluru R, Vara Prasad PV, Yadav OP (2016) An integrated approach to maintaining cereal productivity under climate change. Glob Food Secur 8:9–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Elliott  J, Deryngd D, Ruane AC, Müllere C, Arneth A, Boote KJ, Folberth C, Glotter M, Khabarov N, Neumann K, Piontek F, Pugh TAM, Schmid E, Stehfest E, Yang H, Jones JW (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111(9):3268–3273

    CAS  Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Sarker MAR, Alam K, Gow J (2012) Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: an analysis of time series data. Agric Syst 112:11–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schlenker W, Roberts MJ (2009) Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:15594–15598

    CAS  Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Seo SN, Mendelsohn R, Munasinghe M (2005) Climate change and agriculture in Sri Lanka: a Ricardian valuation. Environ Dev Econ 10:581–596

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shah F, Huang J, Cui K, Nie L, Shah T, Chen C, Wang K (2011) Impact of high-temperature stress on rice plant and its traits related to tolerance. J Agric Sci 149:545–556

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siddiqui R, Samad G, Nasir M, Jalil HH (2012) The impact of climate change on major agricultural crops: evidence from Punjab, Pakistan. Pak Dev Rev 51(4):261

    Google Scholar 

  • Timsina J, Connor DJ (2001) Productivity and management of rice-wheat cropping systems: issues and challenges. Field Crops Res 69:93–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wassmann R, Jagadish SVK, Sumfleth K, Pathak H, Howell G, Ismail A, Serraj R, Redona E, Singh RK, Heuer S (2009) Regional vulnerability of climate change impacts on Asian rice production and scope for adaptation. Adv Agron 102:91–133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yoshida S (1978) Tropical climate and its influence on rice. IRRI research paper series 20. International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study was financed by German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and Higher Education Commission of Pakistan (HEC) jointly; the field research and data collection components of the project were funded by Stiftung Fiat Panis, Germany. The Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Germany, provided administrative support throughout the span of this research work, which is highly appreciated. We thank the Pakistan Metrological Department for climate data. Peter Crawford and Asad Sarwar Qureshi assisted with advice on heat stress and tillage in Pakistan, respectively. The authors also thank the two anonymous reviewers for useful comments on an earlier version of the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Socio-Economics, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany

    Muhammad Arshad, T. S. Amjath-Babu, Azhar Abbas, Harald Kächele & Klaus Müller

  2. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), House 10/B. Road 53. Gulshan-2, Dhaka, 1213, Bangladesh

    Timothy J. Krupnik & Sreejith Aravindakshan

  3. Farming Systems Ecology, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 1 - 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Sreejith Aravindakshan

  4. University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, 38040, Pakistan

    Azhar Abbas

Authors
  1. Muhammad Arshad
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. T. S. Amjath-Babu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Timothy J. Krupnik
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Sreejith Aravindakshan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Azhar Abbas
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Harald Kächele
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Klaus Müller
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Muhammad Arshad.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Arshad, M., Amjath-Babu, T.S., Krupnik, T.J. et al. Climate variability and yield risk in South Asia’s rice–wheat systems: emerging evidence from Pakistan. Paddy Water Environ 15, 249–261 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-016-0544-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-016-0544-0

Keywords

  • Climate change adaptation
  • Adaptive capacity
  • Pakistan
  • Heat stress
  • Rice–wheat system
  • Yield risk