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Assessment of future climate change impacts on snowmelt and stream water quality for a mountainous high-elevation watershed using SWAT

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Abstract

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was applied to assess the potential climate change impact on snowmelt and the non-point source pollution discharges in a 6,640.0 km2 high-elevation watershed of South Korea. For the snowmelt parameters of the model, Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer image was used to obtain the snow cover depletion curve. The model was calibrated using 11 years of data from 2000 to 2010 that included daily runoff and monthly sediment, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP). The climate change impacts on snowmelt in the watershed were evaluated for Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2, A1B, and B1, scenarios (HadCM3) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (HadGEM3-RA). With the temperature increase of 4.33 °C during the snowmelt period in 2080s (2060–2099) RCP 8.5 scenario based on baseline period (1981–2010), the future snowmelt decreased to 39.9 % during snowmelt period (November–April). Turning the reduced snowmelt discharges into rain-runoff discharges under the 45.7 % increase of precipitation caused increase of future sediment, TN, and TP loads to 53.0, 118.2, and 137.5 % respectively. The future increases of TN and TP loads can stimulate the algal bloom and the eutrophication of the dam reservoir.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B079364-01) from Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Environment Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research, Incheon, Korea

    Saet Byul Kim

  2. K-water Institute, Daejeon, Korea

    Hyung Jin Shin

  3. Han River Environmental Research Center, Gyeonggi-Do, Korea

    Minji Park

  4. Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University, Seoul, Korea

    Seong Joon Kim

Authors
  1. Saet Byul Kim
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  2. Hyung Jin Shin
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  3. Minji Park
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  4. Seong Joon Kim
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Correspondence to Seong Joon Kim.

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Kim, S.B., Shin, H.J., Park, M. et al. Assessment of future climate change impacts on snowmelt and stream water quality for a mountainous high-elevation watershed using SWAT. Paddy Water Environ 13, 557–569 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-014-0471-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-014-0471-x

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