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Hydrologic impact of climate change with adaptation of vegetation community in a forest-dominant watershed

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Abstract

This study evaluated the impact on watershed hydrology by predicting future forest community change under a climate change scenario. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected and applied to Chungju dam watershed (6,642 km2) of South Korea. The SWAT was calibrated and validated for 6 years (1998–2003) using the daily streamflow data from three locations. For the future evaluation of forest community and hydrology, the MIROC3.2 HiRes monthly climate data were adopted. The future data were corrected using 30 years (1977–2006, baseline period) of measured weather data, and they were daily downscaled by the Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator statistical method. To predict the future forest vegetation cover, the baseline forest community was modeled by a multinomial LOGIT model using variables of baseline precipitation, temperature, elevation, degree of base saturation, and soil organic matter, and the future forest community was predicted using the future precipitation and temperature scenario. The future temperature increase of 4.8 °C by 2080s (2070–2099) led to prediction of 30.8 % decrease of mixed forest and 75.8 % increase of coniferous forest compared to the baseline forest community. For the baseline evapotranspiration (ET) of 491.5 mm/year, the 2080s ET under the forest community change was 591.1 mm/year, whereas it was 551.8 mm/year with the remaining forest community stationary. The different ET results considering the future forest community clearly affected the groundwater recharge and streamflow in sequence.

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the Center for Aquatic Ecosystem Restoration (CAER) of the Ecostar project from the Ministry of Environment (MOE), Republic of Korea (MOE; EW-55-12-10), and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MEST) (No. 2013-065006).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul, 143-701, South Korea

    Hyung-Jin Shin, Min-Ji Park, Jong-Yoon Park & Seong-Joon Kim

  2. Department of Environmental Health Science, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul, 143-701, South Korea

    Soon-Jin Hwang

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  1. Hyung-Jin Shin
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Correspondence to Jong-Yoon Park.

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Shin, HJ., Park, MJ., Hwang, SJ. et al. Hydrologic impact of climate change with adaptation of vegetation community in a forest-dominant watershed. Paddy Water Environ 12 (Suppl 1), 51–63 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-014-0426-2

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