Novel prognostic score for patients with gastric carcinoma

Abstract

Objective

The lack of a simple criterion for gastric carcinoma creates a persistent challenge for clinicians trying to provide patients with useful prognostic information. The aim of this study was to identify baseline prognostic factors, and use this information to establish a simple criterion to predict outcome in gastric carcinoma.

Methods

Between 2005 and 2010, 155 patients with gastric carcinoma, were enrolled. Clinicopathologic prognostic factors were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analysis.

Results

Of the 155 patients, 48 (30.9%) died. Three independent poor prognostic factors were identified by multivariate analysis: gross type > or = 3 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.564; 95% CI, 1.067 to 2.294), peritoneal dissemination (HR, 3.750; 95% CI, 1.760 to 7.989) and lymphatic duct invasion (HR, 3.578; 95% CI, 1.422 to 9.004). One point was added for each category among three independent prognostic factors. Prognostic score (PS) was determined by an aggregate of these points for each category. There existed a significant difference between survival of patients with PS 0 or 1 and 2 (P < 0.0001).

Conclusion

Three poor prognostic factors were identified and a simple criteria was devised. Information from this analysis can be used to predict prognosis of gastric carcinoma with a strict stratification.