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Model-based forecasting of twig canker incidence of bacterial spot of peach in Fukushima Prefecture


Bacterial spot caused by Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni (Xap) is the most important disease that affects peach production. A disease-forecasting model was developed to help growers decide when to apply bactericides and remove diseased, last-year twigs. To predict the incidence of “spring cankers”, peach twigs damaged by Xap, we used 12 years (2009–2020) of data from Fukushima Prefecture to develop a forecasting system using a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM). The model included the number of fields with a bacterial spot incidence (BSI) on leaves ≥ 10% in late September of the previous season and the number of days with rain (≥ 10 mm/day) and maximum wind speed (≥ 5 m/s) during the previous October as predictors. Using a best-fit cutoff value based on a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the model achieved a 0.836 accuracy, 0.804 sensitivity, 0.847 specificity, 0.847 precision, and 0.712 F-measure. The model was validated using a fourfold cross-validation (CV) procedure and achieved an average accuracy of 0.847. Thus, the model explained 65.7% of the variability compared to observed frequencies with predicted probabilities of twig canker incidence (TCI) ≥ 2% from April to May 2009 to 2020 in Fukushima Prefecture. These results suggest that this disease-forecasting model using HBM based on 12 years of historical data can be used to predict the risk of twig cankers of bacterial spot of peach.

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This study was supported by a research project of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and a public/private R&D investment strategic expansion program (PRISM) of the cabinet office of Japan. The authors are grateful to Drs. Sun Jianqiang and Shigeki Kishi (RCAIT, NARO, Tokyo, Japan) for much useful advice on statistical analyses using HBM.

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AK and TN conceived and designed the study. AK and TN collected all data. AK contributed to data analysis and led the writing of the manuscript. AK wrote the first draft. AK and TN wrote the second draft, critically reviewed, revised and finalized the manuscript. AK is the principal investigator and guarantor. AK and TN read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Akira Kawaguchi.

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Supplementary file1 Proportion of fields with ≥ 2% of twigs with bacterial spot (canker) in April and May, ≥ 1% on leaves in early July, and ≥ 1% on fruits in late July from 2009 to 2020 (PPTX 40 KB)

Supplementary file2 (XLSX 12 KB)

Supplementary file3 (XLSX 13 KB)

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Kawaguchi, A., Nanaumi, T. Model-based forecasting of twig canker incidence of bacterial spot of peach in Fukushima Prefecture. J Gen Plant Pathol (2021).

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  • Hierarchical Bayesian model
  • Bacterial spot of peach
  • Spring cankers
  • Disease-forecasting model