Skip to main content

Evaluation of GPS orbit prediction strategies for the IGS Ultra-rapid products

Abstract

The International GNSS Service (IGS) provides Ultra-rapid GPS & GLONASS orbits every 6 h. Each product is composed of 24 h of observed orbits with predicted orbits for the next 24 h. We have studied how the orbit prediction performance varies as a function of the arc length of the fitted observed orbits and the parameterization strategy used to estimate the empirical solar radiation pressure (SRP) effects. To focus on the dynamical aspects of the problem, nearly ideal conditions have been adopted by using IGS Rapid orbits and known earth rotation parameters (ERPs) as observations. Performance was gauged by comparison with Rapid orbits as truth by examining WRMS and median orbit differences over the first 6-h and the full 24-h prediction intervals, as well as the stability of the Helmert frame alignment parameters. Two versions of the extended SRP orbit model developed by the Centre for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) were tested. Adjusting all nine SRPs (offsets plus once-per-revolution sines and cosines in each satellite-centered frame direction) for each satellite shows smaller mean sub-daily, scale, and origin translation differences. On the other hand, eliminating the four once-per-revolution SRP parameters in the sun-ward and the solar panel axis directions yields orbit predictions that are much more rotationally stable. We found that observed arc lengths of 40–45 h produce the most stable and accurate predictions during 2010. A combined strategy of rotationally aligning the 9 SRP results to the 5 SRP frame should give optimal predictions with about 13 mm mean WRMS residuals over the first 6 h and 50 mm over 24 h. Actual Ultra-rapid performance will be degraded due to the unavoidable rotational errors from ERP predictions.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

References

  • Bar-Sever Y, Kuang D (2004) New empirically derived solar radiation pressure model for Global Positioning System satellites. Interplanetary network progress report, 42–159, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA

  • Bar-Sever Y, Kuang D (2005) New empirically derived solar radiation pressure model for global positioning system satellites during eclipse seasons. Interplanetary Network Progress Report, 42–160, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA

  • Beutler G, Brockmann E, Gurtner W, Hugentobler U, Mervart L, Rothacher M (1994) Extended orbit modeling techniques at the CODE processing center of the International GPS Service for Geodynamics (IGS): theory and initial results. Manuscripta Geodaetica 19:367–386

    Google Scholar 

  • Colombo OL (1989) The dynamics of global positioning system orbits and the determination of precise ephemerides. J Geophys Res 94(B7):9167–9182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dick WR, Richter B (eds) (2011) International earth rotation and reference systems service (IERS) (2011) Annual Report 2008–09. Verlag des Bundesamts für Kartographie und Geodäsie, Frankfurt am Main

    Google Scholar 

  • Dousa J (2010) The impact of errors in predicted GPS orbits on zenith troposphere delay estimation. GPS Solut 14:229–239

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dow JM, Neilan RE, Rizos C (2009) The international GNSS service (IGS) in a changing landscape of Global Navigation Satellite Systems. J Geod 83(3–4):191–198 IGS Special Issue

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fliegel HF, Feess WA, Layton WC, Rhodus NW (1985) The GPS radiation force model. In: Goad C (ed) Proceedings of the first international symposium on precise positioning with the global positioning system. NOAA National Geodetic Survey, Rockville

  • Fliegel HF, Gallini TE (1989) Radiation pressure models for Block II GPS satellites. In: Proceedings of the fifth international symposium on precise positioning with the global positioning system. NOAA National Geodetic Survey, Rockville, MD

  • Fliegel HF, Gallini TE, Swift ER (1992) Global positioning system radiation force model for geodetic applications. Geophys Res Lett 97(B1):559–568

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fliegel HF, Gallini TE (1996) Solar force modeling of block IIR global positioning system satellites. J Spacecraft Rockets 33(6):863–866

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lichten SM, Bertiger WI (1989) Demonstration of sub-meter GPS orbit determination and 1.5 parts in 108 three-dimensional baseline accuracy. J Geod 63(2):1667–1689

    Google Scholar 

  • Morabito DD, Eubanks TM, Steppe JA (1988) Kalman filtering of earth orientation changes. In: The earth’s rotation and reference frames for geodesy and geodynamics, proceedings of the 128th symposium of the international astronomical union. Kluwer, Nowell

  • Pavlis NK, Holmes SA, Kenyon SC, Factor JK (2012) The development and evaluation of the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM2008). J Geophys Res 117:B04406. doi:10.1029/2011JB008916

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petit G, Luzum B (eds) (2010) IERS Conventions (2010) IERS technical note 36, Verlag des Bundesamts für Kartographie und Geodäsie, Frankfurt am Main

  • Rodriguez-Solano CJ, Hugentobler U, Steigenberger P (2012) Adjustable box-wing model for solar radiation pressure impacting GPS satellites. Adv Space Res 49:1113–1128

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Springer TA (1999) Modeling and validating orbits and clocks using the global positioning system. PhD dissertation, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, ISBN 978-3-908440-02-4 (ISBN-10 3-908440-02-5), http://www.sgc.ethz.ch/sgc-volumes/sgk-60.pdf

  • Springer TA, Beutler G, Rothacher M (1999) A new solar radiation pressure model for GPS satellites. GPS Solut 2(3):50–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This investigation was stimulated by very helpful discussions with Yves Mireault (Natural Resources Canada) on IGU orbit prediction strategies. The assistance of Bob Dulaney (NOAA/National Geodetic Survey) in setting up the test procedures is greatly appreciated.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kevin K. Choi.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Choi, K.K., Ray, J., Griffiths, J. et al. Evaluation of GPS orbit prediction strategies for the IGS Ultra-rapid products. GPS Solut 17, 403–412 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10291-012-0288-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10291-012-0288-2

Keywords

  • GPS
  • GNSS
  • Orbit modeling
  • Ultra-rapid
  • IGS
  • Orbit prediction