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Wage structure effects of international trade in a small open economy: the case of Belgium

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Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of international trade on wage dispersion in a small open economy, Belgium. It is one of the few to: (i) use detailed, matched employer-employee data to compute industry wage premia and disaggregated industry-level panel data to examine the impact of changes in international trade on changes in wage differentials, (ii) simultaneously analyse both imports and exports, and (iii) examine the impact of imports according to the country of origin. Looking at the export side, we find (on the basis of the system generalized method of moments estimator) a positive effect of exports on industry wage premia. The results also show that import penetration has a significant and negative impact on industry wage differentials. However, the detrimental effect of imports on wages is found to be significantly greater when imports originate from low- and middle-income countries than from high-income countries.

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Notes

  1. Another strand of the literature investigates how trade reforms affect inter-industry wage differentials primarily in developing countries (Robertson 2000; Feliciano 2001; Hasan and Chen 2003; Pavcnik et al. 2004; Goldberg and Pavcnik 2005; Dutta 2007). For example, Dutta (2007) examines the link between tariff reduction and industry wage premia in India. He finds that high-tariff industries offer higher wage premia. A similar result is found for Colombia by Goldberg and Pavcnik (2005), when industry fixed effects are included in the analysis. Jean and Nicoletti (2002) also report a positive impact of tariffs on wages using panel data for 12 OECD countries. In contrast, Pavcnik et al. (2004) obtain no significant effect between changes in trade policy and changes in industry wage premia in Brazil.

  2. However, Lundin and Yun (2009) results only refer to ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates that are likely to be biased.

  3. Barth and Zweimüller (1992), Edin and Zetterberg (1992), Helwege (1992), Zanchi (1992), Kahn (1998), Teulings and Hartog (1998), Björklund et al. (2007), Gannon et al. (2007), Du Caju et al. (2010), Magda et al. (2011).

  4. Christophides and Oswald (1992), Blanchflower et al. (1996), Van Reenen (1996), Hildreth and Oswald (1997), Goos and Konings (2001), Margolis and Salvanes (2001), Araï (2003), Fakhfakh and FitzRoy (2004), Rycx and Tojerow (2004), Martins (2009), Rusinek and Rycx (2012).

  5. Indeed, at least two econometric problems arise when current profits are used to estimate the wage-profit elasticity. First, there is an accounting relationship between wages and current profits: if wages increase, profits (i.e. value-added minus remuneration of labour) automatically decrease. Therefore, OLS estimates of rent sharing are likely to be downward biased. Second, a positive relationship between wages and current profits may arise because higher wages can provide employees with incentives to step up their effort (cf. efficiency wage theories). This would lead to an upward biased estimation of rent sharing. To sum up, OLS estimates of wage-profit elasticity might be biased and inconsistent due to simultaneity problems between wages and current profits. To account for this issue, two-stage least squares (2SLS) is generally applied using instruments for contemporaneous profits. Instruments used in the literature to control for the endogeneity of profits include: lagged profits, the degree of market competition, prices of imports and exports, exchange rate variations, past technological innovations and sales.

  6. However, it should be noted that more competitive arguments can also be put forward. Lawrence (2000), for instance, argues that trade may change the wage structure through its impact on technology and TFP. Moreover, Lovely and Richardson (1998) emphasize that trade can influence the return to skills and therefore also the wage structure.

  7. The Belgian labour market is characterized by a relatively high trade union density, a large collective bargaining coverage rate, industry bargaining (essentially) and a national minimum wage. Given these features, we believe that non-competitive mechanisms have a strong potential in explaining the impact of international trade on the wage structure. This intuition is also supported by the fact that Goos and Konings (2001), Rycx and Tojerow (2004) and Rusinek and Rycx (2012) provide empirical evidence for the existence of rent-sharing in the Belgian private sector and that Du Caju et al. (2011) show that this rent-sharing phenomenon accounts for a significant part of inter-industry wage differentials.

  8. Dutta (2007) and Martins and Opromolla (2009) put forward another mechanism that can take place in a labour market with non-competitive features. In this case, rent sharing follows the impact of trade changes on industry- or firm- level productivity, thereby changing industry-relative wages. This explanation concerns precisely more imports of inputs than overall imports of any kind of goods. Access to higher-quality or cheaper intermediate inputs results in higher profits and, hence, in higher wages.

  9. In the case of the standard Hecksher–Ohlin–Samuelson model, inter-industry wage differentials are difficult to explain since factors are mobile and their prices equalize across industries.

  10. Due to its cross-sectional nature, workers cannot be followed across time within or between firms.

  11. The SES is conducted on the basis of a two-stage random sampling approach of enterprises or local units (first stage) and employees (second stage). The establishments, randomly chosen from the population, report data on a random sample of their workforce. The SES is thus a stratified sample. The stratification criteria refer to the region where the local unit is located (NUTS categories), the principal economic activity (NACE groups) and the size of the local unit (this size is determined by data collected from the Social Security Organisation). Sampling percentages of local units depend positively on the size of the unit. Within a local unit, the number of workers to be considered also depends on size, but negatively. Because of this sampling strategy, weights have to be used to extrapolate employees and local units in the sample to the entire stratum. For more details see Demunter (2000).

  12. Annual bonuses include irregular payments which do not occur during each pay period, such as pay for holidays, 13th month or profit-sharing.

  13. Descriptive statistics relative to the merged SES-SBS samples are reported in Table 8 in the Appendix.

  14. Total turnover and output are extracted from the firms’ annual accounts.

  15. Time dummies are considered as exogenous and we use respectively first and second lags and second and third lags of other explanatory variables as instruments.

  16. Results from the wage regressions are reported in Table 9 in the Appendix.

  17. The complete set of results, i.e. the 139 inter-industry wage differentials estimated for each year, are available upon request.

  18. In order to get the difference in percentage terms between the wage (in EUR) of the average worker in sector k and the employment-share weighted mean wage (in EUR) in the economy, the following expressions have been computed : \( V_{k} = [(\exp (\hat{\psi }_{k} )-1)-{G}] \) for k = 1,…,K and V K+1  = −G; where \( G = \sum\nolimits_{k = 1}^{K} {\bar{p}_{k} [\exp (\hat{\psi }_{k} ) - 1]} \) and \( \bar{p}_{k} \)’s are sectoral employment shares. This transformation is necessary because the estimated wage equation has a semi-logarithmic form, so that inter-industry wage differentials, calculated from Eq. (1), are initially expressed in log point form (for a discussion see Araï et al. 1996 or Reilly and Zanchi 2003).

  19. See Du Caju et al. (2011) for detailed analysis of inter-industry wage differentials in Belgium.

  20. Yet, it could be argued that the unobserved quality of the labour force is not randomly distributed across sectors. In other words, high-paying industries might simply be those in which the non-observed quality of the labour force is the highest. To examine this issue, we applied Martins’ (2004) methodology to all the waves of the SES-SBS from 1999 to 2006. This boils down to the estimation of extended quantile wage regressions, controlling for a large number of variables, at the mean and at the 10th and 90th percentiles of the wage distribution. Martins’ methodology is based on the following reasoning. On the one hand, workers with better unobserved characteristics (e.g. ability, motivation, industry-specific skills) are likely to be found at the top of the wage distribution. On the other hand, according to the unobserved quality explanation, workers with better unmeasured characteristics are over-represented in high-wage sectors. As a result, if the unobserved quality explanation is valid, we would expect: (i) industry wage differentials to be larger at the top end of the wage distribution and (ii) the difference in industry wage premia across the wage distribution to be larger in high-wage sectors than in low-wage sectors. Empirical results (available on request) suggest that the contribution of unobserved ability to inter-industry wage differentials in Belgium is limited and hence that other explanations deserve to be investigated. However, this conclusion should be taken with caution as Martin’s test relies on specific assumptions regarding, e.g. the behaviour of low-skilled workers (they are implicitly assumed to be present in all industries) and the return to unobserved ability (it is implicitly supposed to be invariant across industries). Hence, it might be useful in future research to re-examine the unobserved ability hypothesis in a more standard way, i.e. by computing industry wage premia on the basis of a wage equation including worker fixed effects so as to control for unobserved worker heterogeneity (which may be correlated with the export share). This option requires detailed linked employer-employee panel data (tracking workers and firms over time) that unfortunately do not exist for Belgium at this moment.

  21. The positive impact of exports on industry wage premia should be interpreted with caution. Indeed, our data do not allow us to control for a possible self-selection bias, i.e. for the fact that higher wages in exporting firms may (at least partially) be due to the self-selection of more productive firms, with better wages, into export markets. For more evidence on this potential issue see Fryges and Wagner (2010), Greenaway and Kneller (2007), Melitz (2003), Schank et al. (2010) or Yang and Mallick (2010).

  22. These groups are based on the World Bank Analytical Classification presented in World Development Indicators (GNI per capita in US$ Atlas method: gross national income divided by mid-year population).

  23. These results also hold with standardized regression coefficients that show directly the relative importance of the country of origin (see Table 10 in the Appendix). In other words, the difference between low-income and high-income countries persists after standardizing all the variables.

  24. However, it should be noted that differences in results for exports are probably not due to the absence of industry fixed effects in the specification of Lundin and Yun (2009). As highlighted by an anonymous referee, “this would imply that unobserved heterogeneity is negatively correlated with exports, whereas they are typically thought of as positively correlated. Indeed, at least for Belgium, the exclusion of industry fixed effects increases the parameter estimates.”

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Acknowledgments

A portion of the work for this paper was conducted while Ilan Tojerow was visiting the Center for Labor Economics at UC Berkeley. This paper is produced as part of the Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) coordinated by the European Central Bank (ECB). Financial support from the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) is gratefully acknowledged. This paper has benefited from presentations in 2011 at the Society of Labor Economists Conference (Vancouver) and in 2010 at the All-California Labor Economics Conference and the UC Berkeley Labor Lunch Seminar. We thank Orley Ashenfelter, Massimiliano Bratti, Raffaello Bronzini, David Card and Gustavo Gonzaga for their very helpful discussions and comments. We also would like to thank Statistics Belgium for providing access to the data. Opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of the institutes the authors are affiliated with.

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Correspondence to Ilan Tojerow.

Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 8, 9, 10.

Table 8 Means (standard deviations) of selected variables, 1999–2006
Table 9 Log wage equation, OLS, 1999–2006
Table 10 International trade and inter-industry wage premia, standardized regressions (dependent variable: adjusted industry wage premia)

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Du Caju, P., Rycx, F. & Tojerow, I. Wage structure effects of international trade in a small open economy: the case of Belgium. Rev World Econ 148, 297–331 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-012-0121-6

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